Sunday, May 1, 2011

Its going to be a Harper Majority

The polls open in less than 24 hours, so its time for a prediction...and sorry to say it looks to me like a Harper majority.  Based on the polls, especially those relating to the province of Ontario, I see Harper's Conservatives garnering somewhere around 160 seats nationally.

Obviously my guess is not worth much, my projection and a TTC token will get you a subway ride to downtown Toronto.  But I'll explain my rationale none the less.

The bottom line is that its going to all come down to the province of Ontario, and in my home province I see the Tories making big gains due to vote splitting between the NDP and Liberals, allowing Conservative candidates to split up the middle. 

If there's a wild card I see it resting with the number of ballots cast.  If the turnout is as abysmal as it was in 2008 it favours the Conservatives.  Conversely if turnout is a robust 70% or more, then I see that hurting the chances of Harper winning his majority.  But I'm not optimistic about heavy voter turn out, because there's no reason to be.

Jack Layton has been the star of this election, while Michael Ignatieff's energetic and earnest efforts failed to connect.  Even with Layton's performance, I don't see either leader inspiring casual followers of the campaign to get off the couch tomorrow and head to the polls.

So here are the numbers I'm predicting, and if I end up being 100% correct I'll fall off my chair.  We'll see if I'm close:

Cons 162
NDP  79
Libs    48 
Bloc   19

Sorry Liz, my call...close but no cookie.

I do hope I'm wrong, especially now that PMHarper just tweeted yesterday that a coalition government is a legitimate option.  I'll write more on that later today. 

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