Tuesday, September 29, 2020

With proven dangers to prolonged wearing of cloth masks, what is a parent to do?

I am well aware that for some people the science on masks is over, they've heard what they want to hear, that masks may provide some utility in mitigating viral spread, and that's that.....the book is closed.

True students of science of course know that science is a process, and that things can change as newer and/or better evidence comes out.  Changes can be sublte, evolving over time, or they can be dramatic.  New studies are done, in science the gold standard is radomized trials, with some utility in observational analysis and compartive studies.  

To date there has only ever been one randomized trial done on cloth masks, in 2015 by an Australian research team. Their radomized cluster trial, published in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) showed that wearing cloth masks for long periods day after day increases the risk of respitory infection thirteen times over, paper or so called procedural masks had double the risk, while N95 masks worn strictly when needed (not all day) has basically no risk.  

Here's the link to the BMJ published paper:  


No other studies have come out to contradict or modify these findings.  And for those who find reading a scientific article too labourious there's a CBC news article quoting an infection control epidemiologist and University of Toronto associate professor who breaks it down in much easier to understand language.  A link to the article is embedded in the following text for those who wish to fact check.  

Dr. Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist and assistant professor at the University of Toronto, says wearing a mask can be dangerous. That is if the wrong mask is worn, it's worn incorrectly or people have incorrect expectations when wearing it. 

"The worst one is wearing one for too long," he said, noting masks can collect bacteria and other viruses.

Furness said he wonders why this information isn't being shared when there is evidence about it.

He said a study in a U.K. medical journal showed health-care workers who wore cloth masks all day while working were 13 times more likely to get a respiratory illness when compared to the standard practice of only wearing a mask when necessary. 

Those who wore a paper or procedure mask were twice as likely to get some type of respiratory infection if they wore it all day. The N95 masks were only worn when required during the study and no staff were affected. 

"This shouldn't surprise us," Furness said. "A mask, you're breathing on it all day long creating all this wonderful space for bacteria to multiply, and once they get to a certain quantity you start inhaling them."

It's not that masks don't provide some potential utilty in mitigating viral spread, it's just the possible benefit comes with a cost.  I strongly suggest reading the full article.  Dr. Furness reccomends boiling masks after 2 hours of use because some bacteria is drug resistant.  

Personally I've softened my anti mask stance, for me it's not a big deal.  I wear a simple neck gaiter for quick in and outs at the gas station or convenience store, when grocery shopping I use a face shield.  I'm not having to wear a mask for hours on end, and while I feel genuinely sorry for workers who are required to wear them, that's their battle not mine.  

But I also have a son in grade two, and now it's a hill I'm willing to climb.  When school started he did wear a mask for the first week, while I read and studied more.  By this past weekend I had come to the conclusion that the risk of having a 7 year old wear a cloth mask all day did not justify the possible benefits.  

In my district in Ontario kids in grade three and under are not required to wear masks, although it is strongly reccomended.  I sent a message to my son's teacher explaining that he would not be wearing a mask going forward and explaining the reasons why.  

I'm lucky, in my area and because of my child's age I have the option, many parents do not.  In my opinion we should not be forcing kids to wear a mask at school when there is rigorous scientific evidence that says it is dangerous.  

One of my son's best friends has already gotten sick and his mother told me that there are 5 other boys ill as well.  That however is anecdotal, and even if a large number of kids do get respitory infections from wearing masks I expect it will be ignored by respected media outlets, the only health concern they're reporting on is Covid nowadays.  




Wednesday, September 16, 2020

Another Ontario lockdown won't work. Too many people are well informed now.

There is increasing talk of lockdowns in Ontario, if not province wide then in specific hotspot areas like Peel Region.  Well folks time for a reality check, further lockdowns won't work.   I am aware of polling that suggests there is broad based support for a return to more stringent emergency measures, somewhere close to 75% in fact.  The trouble is the 25% who are opposed.

As reflected in the polling, most Ontarians view Covid-19 as a serious problem, so serious that any and all measures need to be taken to at least slow the spread, if not eliminate it entirely.  But about 1 in 4 people don't believe that, and attempts at gaslighting notwithstanding, there is a lot of science and data to back up that view.  

I know lots of people watch CBC or other outlets and they're inundated with the story that cases of Covid are rising significantly, they're told this is a major problem and that's that, they believe they're informed.  

For a lot of more technically adept younger people that isn't enough, they know how to research and dig to get at the facts behind the reporting.  And they're not convinced that Covid-19 is a major health issue for the vast majority of the population.  

Ontario has seen case numbers climbing from below 100 per day toward the end of the summer, to 200 and 300+ per day recently.  About two thirds of these cases are among younger people, the under 40 crowd.  We're told that it isn't bars and restaurants or other public places that are causing the spread, but rather private get togethers and activities of that nature.  

So why aren't a lot of people under 40 taking Covid-19 seriously?  

I would suggest it's because they know their facts, like information put out by Ontario Public Health that pegs the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for those 40 and under at 0.08% or less.  The younger you are the lower it goes, for ages 0-9 it's only 0.002%.  Put another way it means that for those 40 and under there's better than a 99.9% survival rate, Covid  for this demographic is no more deadly than the seasonal flu.  

I know some will read the above paragraph and won't believe it because they haven't seen in reported in the Sun, Star, Post or Globe, and it hasn't been the lead story on CBC, Global or CTV.  The fact that it's from a reputable government source won't matter either.  Some won't believe anything that counters the narrative that Covid is an incredibly lethal pathogen that justifies even draconian measures.  

Many made up their minds back in March when the Imperial College of London was predicting 50+ million Covid deaths worldwide, even with Non Pharmaceutical Interventions or NPIs for short.  Right now the number of Covid deaths stands at less than 1 million worldwide.  That's less death than what is seen globally from traffic accidents.  Incidentally, providing benchmarks and perspective isn't distorting the truth, it is the truth.  

Another simple and verifiable fact is hospitalization numbers.  Ontario is a province of about 14.5 million people, and yet there aren't even 100 Covid patients being treated in our roughly 500 hospitals, only 20 or so of whom are in ICUs.  Again, this information is publicly available on the government's Covid-19 portal and is updated daily at 10:30 am excluding statutory holidays.  

Younger Canadians who are ignoring government mandated advice can say they're following solid medical direction in fact.  Back in early July eighteen of Canada's leading health authorities published an open letter calling on Canadians to be educated about their true level of risk, and to get back to active lives at work, school and socially.  

If you haven't seen the letter here's a snippet, the author's include Canada's first chief medical health officer Dr. David Butler-Jones:  


Of course governments can bring in measures, we have measures in place now, but getting people to follow them is another matter, especially those who are younger, healthy and well informed.  Those who aren't scared in other words.  Like political leaders who've been taking trips to their cottages when travel was restricted, or holding public meetings and going to weddings and the hair dresser.  Roughly one in four people are not scared of Covid, and they'll base their behaviour on that lack of fear.

And that is all well and good in my own personal opinion.  There is something that could change my view though, and that is if our hospitals do start to get inundated.  Back in April the province of Ontario expanded ICU space by 900 beds because of forecasts of ~1,300 critical care spaces being needed, that was a the 'best case' scenario if we did really well at keeping distance and all the rest.  Thankfully even though we had huge gatherings and open flaunting of the rules, and no mandatory masks, those dire predictions never came anywhere close to coming true, the science was wrong.  But then computer modeled simulations usually are, and the errors accumulate over time.

Keep well.  I myself won't be out partying with any large groups, those days are in the past.  A back yard get together with a few friends is about the extent of my merry making now.