George Floyd - What can I add?

It keeps happening, over and over and over again.  Rodney King, Trayvon Martin, George Floyd, with plenty before, in between, and sadly I fear, more to come.  Why?  

I think I know the answer, and its ugly.  The sad but honest reality is that a lot of white Americans are afraid of blacks, especially young black men.  And worse still, and this is the really hard part, in some ways its not even their fault.  White Americans have been conditioned and taught to think this way.  

I'm not excusing murderers, I hope they're given life imprisionment, if I wasn't opposed to the death penalty I'd be calling for execution.  But even putting the guilty before a firing squad won't eliminate the root cause of the problem I'm afraid.  And that root cause is this in my opinion, more than a century of denegrating an entire race, leading white America to view black males as more prone to violence, criminal behaviour and sexual predetation. 

Its bullshit and it has to stop, but that's easier said than done.

Why do I think this, that there's a built in and conditioned fear of blacks among whites?  Because for a time, I was guilty of it.  I grew up in the United States, ten of my first twelve years were spent in NYC, New Jersey and Oregon.  I didn't move permanently back to Canada until 1978 when I was twelve years of age, I'll spare you having to do the math, I'll by 54 this summer.  

Its not an easy thing to admit, but for a long time I thought of blacks as being more prone to criminal behaviour.  Sure I knew some black kids that I went to school with, some great individuals.  They were the exceptions to the rule, they'd risen above their natures.  I'm not excusing my former attitude, just owning up to it.  It was reinforced by the neighbourhoods I grew up in, always very white.  Its not cliche, if a black family moves into a white area in the United States even now, many whites will move away.  

I'm lucky, my late amazing Mother did an awesome job raising me.  When I came home from the flea market at 15 years of age with a Confederate Flag that I hung over my bed she told me in no uncertain terms that a racist symbol was not welcome in our house.  My arguments of rebellion, the Dukes of Hazzard and General Lee thankfully fell on deaf ears. I got an education.  

That didn't completely erase the conditioning I'd been subject to for so long though, but it started to open my eyes.  And my eyes are still being opened.  I'm actually a little uncomfortable writing this, because as a white man what right do I have to comment on a situation that deep down I can never completely understand and appreciate.  

I do have some skin in the game though, my wife is Tamil with dark skin and I have 3 mixed race children that I adore.  And I have a responsibility to at least try to hand them a better world than the one I grew up in.  Thankfully its not as bad in Canada as the United States, but things are a long way from perfect here.  

I'm not kidding when I place the blame for American attitudes about race on conditioning, the primary culprits being government and media.  And it transcends borders.  Look at this clip from an old Dirty Harry movie.  

What's the message here?  All the criminals are black, all the victims are white, and the hero is of course a white man.  You might not realize it conciously, but its there and this is just one example.  

After the civil war southern states  brought in so called 'Jim Crow' laws, basically making it almost illegal to be black in public.  When southerners saw criminal chain gangs post war they were overwhelmingly, or entirely black, the message was clear:  blacks are criminals.    The movie 'Birth of a Nation' came out in 1915 glorifying the Klu Klux Klan.  U.S. president Woodrow Wilson had a private screening in the White House and praised it.  

Fast forward to the Nixon era with blacks being targetted as criminals and hippies as druggies in an effort to scare American voters into voting GOP, successfully too.  Even  Bill Clinton played to this irrational but very real fear with his three strikes and you're out campaining and subsequent legislation.  

That's all history now.  How do we make things better going forward?  That's easier said than done I'm afraid.  It will take media and government flipping the script.  And right now there's a sitting president in Donald Trump who's relying on voters with racist views to put him back in the White House.  

Its a conversation everyone needs to have.  As a Christain I believe everyone of us is an image bearer, no matter the pigmentation. Hearts and minds are hard to win over when people have been conditioned to hate for generations, but a start comes when we open up and share our truth, even when its hard to admit.    

NBC News: CDC Estimates Covid-19 Mortality Rate is 0.4%

Before I share my thoughts here is the link to the news story dated May 26th and updated May 28th:

https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/data-cdc-estimates-covid-19-mortality-rate/275-fc43f37f-6764-45e3-b615-123459f0082b?fbclid=IwAR1ymyj3B9PcW4YrdfmBsye3BV3ousaNrjh5WFNr1Wjkk63r7F3xH0znKic

Everyone is a conspiracy buff these days.  

Right from the start of this pandemic, anyone who didn't believe the doom and gloom forecasts of 2+ million dead in the United States and a mortality rate of somewhere between 4 and 5% was thought to be part of the 5G "death tower" crowd, or must believe that the novel coronavirus was a bioweapon designed to usher in the new world order.  

Now that the authorities are revising their numbers downward, to an incredible degree, its those who were all in on the doom and gloom forecasts who are screaming conspiracy.  Now its big biz or the far right ignoring or manipulating science to get the economy moving.  That obviously wouldn't include the Amazons, Wal-Marts and Loblaws of the world of course, they're doing booming buisness.  For them this new normal is hunky dory. 

I'm one who believes the truth typically lies between the extremes.  Right from the start when the numbers first started coming out of Italy it was clear that Covid-19 was overwhelmingly deadly with a very specific population, the elderly and health compromised.  Younger and otherwise healthy people not so much, even experts in infectious diseases are now going on record as saying that for the young and healthy the risks of being killed or seriously injured in a motor vehicle accident are higher than that of dying from Covid-19.  Just to be clear, they're not saying there is zero risk, just an incedibly low risk.

Personally I find the whole fixation on a broad based mortality rate to be somewhat absurd.  The reason is simple, the risks are not the same for everyone.  Roughly 500 Canadians are reported to drown in any given year, so there is a risk there.  Does that mean that no Canadians should ever go swimming?  Of course not and nobody would ever suggest something so ridiculous.  But for someone who can't even tread water or do a simple dog paddle, then a life jacket is a reasonable safety  precaution even if just heading out fishing on a small cottage lake.  

Likewise with the novel coronavirus.  An eighty year old diabetic with hypertension needs to be incredibly vigilant in today's world, along with anyone coming into close contact with this person.  My opinion from the start has always been that we have to do all that is possible to protect those that are vulnerable.  Even knowing all we know we've done a horrible job of it as evidenced by the statistics showing about 80% of Canada's deaths from Covid happening in LTC type facilities.  

Like most people I have elderly relatives, and when we talk by phone I urge them to be safe, I don't need to though because they already know it.  I'd love to go visit my favorite 87 year old aunt, but I won't until a safe and effective vaccine is developed.  If things do ease up enough I might take a trip and see her in the great outdoors though, with lots of space.  But that would be hard with her six year old  great nephew wanting a hug I'm sure.  We shall see. 

Even testing is no panacea.  I could get tested today, then find out in three or four days that I was negative, but in the interceding days I might become infected.  In the interim I've decided I'm going to live as normal a life as possible.  I'm one of the lucky ones whose job was deemed essential, but my heart goes out to those who's livelihoods have been taken away, tossed onto goverment welfare that for many won't be enough to pay the bills.  

And now I'll wait for my merry stalkers and trolls to chime in.  

"...the risk of death from COVID for people under 65 is 0.006 per cent".

The subject line is a quote of Alberta Premier Jason Kenney taken from an article in the Calgary Herald, the full story is available here:

https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/braid-kenney-begins-to-normalize-covid-19-as-a-risk-mainly-to-the-elderly-almost-zero-danger-to-the-young/wcm/264d4e97-bd0e-42c8-8566-be9fcf69f8e7/?fbclid=IwAR2GtoYJwiE7FcgPFhDJe5x8wgKj3XDcaTO_t5X0_7f67Fbud0edr96ENi4

Tracking the load put on Ontario's hospitals

The rationale behind so called "lock down" measures was that our beleaguered health care system would not be able to handle the strain of Covid-19 cases, There was, (and still is) a lot of merit to that line of thinking.  Ontario hospitals were operating over capacity a lot of the time before the pandemic, hallway medicine and long waits in ER were already the norm.

In order to free up capacity a number of steps were taken, delaying elective and needed surgeries and cancer screenings as well as moving elderly sick patients to Long Term Care facilities.  Still the early models were predicting that critical care space was going to be exceeded many times over.  We can be thankful that hasn't happened, and hopefully it never does.

In order to keep an eye on the strain being put on our hospitals I'm going to track the numbers provided by the Ontario Hospital Association here.  The data I've been able to find only gives the current numbers, so I don't know what the peak is exactly. BlogTO reported on May 20th that the number of hospitalized was at 975 and trending lower, so I'm going to assume, (dangerous I know) that the peak was over 1,000 at some point previously.

Here's the link for the OHA site where I'll be getting the numbers:

https://www.oha.com/news/updates-on-the-novel-coronavirus

I'm doing this for my own edification, others though are welcome to follow along if they wish.  I want to track whether the burden on our health care system is increasing or decreasing, or staying about the same.  I'll update it frequently, although not necessarily every single day.  Given the recent massive gathering in Trinity Bellwoods park in Toronto these numbers should start climbing higher as May rolls into June according to everything we're being told about the science.  

Date                                             Hospitalizations    ICU     Ventilators
Monday May 25                          878                        148      104
Tuesday May 26                          859                        148      114
Wednesday May 27                    848                        143      113
Thursday May 28                        847                        150      117
Friday May 29                            833                         137        94
Saturday May 30                        826                         129      100
Sunday May 31                          801                         121        84
Monday June 1                           781                         118        90
Tuesday June 2                           781                         125        89
Wednesday June 3                      801                         125       87
Thursday June 4                         791                         127        92
Friday June 5                              776                         121       94
Saturday June 6                          749                         118       94
Sunday June 7                            673                         117       97 

The OHA site I've been using has stopped publishing the numbers for some reason, however CTV news has been reporting them for a while now and the numbers have always matched.  CTV's news for Tuesday June 9th however doesn't include the number of patients on ventilators.  I'll keep tracking and will now hyperlink to the CTV articles or other reliable sources.

Tuesday June 9th......................600..........................116
Wednesdy June 10th................580...........................118.........86
Thursday June 11th..................538...........................120
Sunday June 14th ....................438...........................103.........77
Monday June 15th....................419...........................104.........69
Friday June 26th.......................256............................61..........41
Monday June 30th....................232............................46..........35

We're not all in the same boat, millions are in the water....

We were all on the same boat until the coronavirus iceberg hit.  The boat being the world we knew before, a ship that has now sunk.  We're all in the water now, but some are in lifeboats, some have a life jacket, and some are clinging to debris.  A few are treading water with neither, and some don't know how to swim.  

And its the arrogant selfish jerks in the lifeboats who are the most despicable.  

Empty and meaningless platitudes are used by thoughtless people all the time, those with mental health issues hear them often.  Its always darkest before the dawn.  When you're going through hell, keep going.  Every cloud has a silver lining.  

Well intentioned though they may be, they can in fact be quite cruel.  And this pandemic is showing how thoughtless and self centred people can be, while thinking they're being all virtuous.  "We're all in the same boat".  The inference is that, more or less, everyone is experiencing the same things, the same anxieties and disruptions.  

Think about it, even just a little, and you start to see how absurd a notion it is.

The people in the lifeboats include those working from home, whose only risky activity is going out to the grocery store and pharmacy, or other strictly essential activities.  For maybe an hour or three each week vigilance is required, then its back to the nest, maybe walking around the block.  The lifeboat crowd also includes those who are retired with stable incomes, anyone who doesn't need to go out except for essential activities or to exercise.

Those in the water include the people who are still working.  While everyone else is being urged to do anything and everything to avoid catching the deadly coronavirus, essential factory, meat processing workers, Amazon fulfillment centre employees and tons more are being told:  "Uhm...its not really that bad, you can still go to work, we have to keep the supply chain open for all those nice people in the lifeboats".  

Then there are those who are out of work, buisness owners and their employees who have been forced onto government welfare, if they qualify and not everyone does.  To add insult to injury they're also being told they're not essential.  I've been unemployed, and I know what it does to a person's mental state and sense of self worth, depression is common.  While I doubt many in this situation are reading my pathetic and miserable little blog, if any are please hear this message:  YES!!! YOU ARE ESSENTIAL!!!  You are every bit as essential as a front line health care worker or anyone else.  

That large gathering in Trinity Bellwood Park in Toronto just recently.  I wonder how many of those young twenty and thirtysomethings are still out working?  Experts are telling us that most transmission is occuring indoors, and Amazon fulfillment centres don't exist in the great outdoors.  I don't blame them for going out, and for not being scared.  Sure they're terrifying those who are safe and secure in the lifeboats, but I never much cared for the arrogant and self centred.  

One Christian's opinion on churches being closed, and those that have gathered....

I don't write about my faith often, I try to balance never denying it with not beating people over the head with it.  At times I'm a pretty lousy Christian, and in point of fact I only started taking my faith seriously about 13 years ago, around the time I turned forty.  

I try not to come across as a self righteous Bible thumper, because I know how annoying that is for some people, it used to annoy me as well.

So what does it mean to be a Christian anyway?  After all, there are so many different branches and denominations.  Central and in common with almost all avowed Christians I declare Jesus Christ to be my Lord and Saviour.  I believe that by His death and resurrection I am saved by God's loving grace and will never taste death.  If you think I'm wrong that's okay.  

So how are Christians responding to the pandemic?  Its a mixed bag really, like most of society. 

I'm sure many have seen videos or read news stories about some preachers who've declared that by the power of the Holy Spirit, that they have the power to defeat the virus or something similar.  You might have seen Kenneth Copeland blowing the 'wind of god', (small g on purpose) on covid-19.  

Here's a  music video that satirizes it, some might find it a bit eerie....

I for one do not believe for a second that my faith in Jesus Christ protects me from contracting Covid-19, or any other disease or illness for that matter. For me that is not what faith is about.  

This is a broken and depressing world a lot of time, but I believe if one looks one can see God's gracious hand working even when things are bad.  Look for it because it's there, see it and you will marvel, and then you can find comfort and peace. Jesus Himself went willingly to the cross, He didn't avoid the pain and humiliation, and because of that He conquered death,.  Because of Him I too will conquer death.

Alright, enough sermonizing, I'm not a pastor and have no real theological training, I just know what I believe.

So why am I writing this?  

I guess part of the reason is to differentiate myself from those like Copeland who think that Christianity has some magic superpower.  In my small Ontario town all the churches are closed including my home church.  We have Roman Catholic, Anglican, United, Christian Reformed and Pentecostal churches here, and all conducting worship on-line.  There's also a Jehovah's Witness Kingdom Hall, but I don't know what they're doing.

With all that being said, I really miss corporate worship for a lot of reasons.  Worshiping on-line is not the same thing for me, and it never will be.  My home church already had a YouTube channel, and streamed services for those unable to attend, so the transition did not require as much additional effort as it did for other congregations I imagine.

The Bible teachings that: 'for when two or three gather in My name, there am I with them'.  

I know that is true no matter the place, including my living room.  In point of fact my faith teaches me that there is not one square inch of creation over which Jesus is not Lord.  Still, my living room is not a space dedicated to worship, and even with cell phones turned off, the peace and serenity can be invaded by the dog barking, or a neighbour knocking, all of which have happened. I find myself getting angry and frustrated at a time when I should be finding peace and comfort.

I'll be completely frank, if any of the churches in my town aside from Kingdom Hall were to open up for worship, I'd be there.  The first Pandemic Sunday, before rules were firmly put in place banning all gatherings the Pentecostal church was open while my home church chose to close.  My schedule precluded me from attending anywhere, but had I been able I would have joined the Pentecostals that Sunday.  

I've spoken to the Pastor at my home church about this, and he made the very important point that as Christians we are to witness, and that it wouldn't look good if we were to be gathering and potentially putting people at risk.  At the same time he acknowledged that Jesus Himself did not play by the rules, social distancing took place in Biblical times as well with lepers.  Lepers were shunned, one was expected to avoid all contact with these highly infectious people.  Jesus didn't just get within two metres, He touched  them.  

I look at all the workers coming in and out of warehouses, meat processing plants, factories....shoppers going in and out of grocery stores and Wal-Marts.  Right from the start it was obvious that with so many people deemed essential and so many large retailers open, that viral spread was going to be impossible to stop.  Ours is a culture that worships at the holy altar of consumerism, and like most everyone I'm guilty of it as well to a degree.  But I'd also like to go to church.   

We know who the vulnerable are, that's been clear since lockdown measures were introduced as analysis was coming out of Italy.  Overwhelmingly it was (and still is) elderly people and those in poor health, most often both.  Here's an article from March 18th that speaks to this fact: 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

So to my mind the most logical course of action would be to protect the vulnerable, isolate them.  Of course I don't know how realistic that would be.  In our politically correct world everyone has to be treated the same.  Would it be possible to require the vulnerable to isolate?  Probably not, the only option would likely be to do what Sweden did, strongly urge those at greatest risk to isolate, but  ultimately leave it up to individual choice.  This isn't without precedent in our society, after all we still allow people to smoke.  We didn't go that route however, we chose to impose more universal isolation measures. 

I know that every American church that has continued gathering has brought screams of "SELFISH JERKS" by the angry mob, including admonishing statements from government and health officials.  And it bothers me, because I haven't heard anyone screaming and clamoring for Amazon to be closed down despite all the outbreaks at their facilities. 

If its safe for all the stores that have had outbreaks to continue operating, then why can't churches gather?  Maybe we can do a better job of keeping places safe than meat processing plants and Amazon fulfillment centres. 

Just my thoughts. 

Bellwood or no Bellwood the coronavirus is not going away anytime soon - It may never go away

Lots of people are expressing anger, frustration and disbelief about reports of thousands of people gathering in Toronto's Trinity Bellwood park recently.  Part of this anger is based on the misguided and completely false notion that if not for this kind of behaviour the pandemic would be over and people could go back to living their normal lives.  

Well folks here's your daily dose of simple reality, the novel coronavirus is not going away any time soon.  In point of fact it may never go away.  At some point we may very well have to come to grips with the fact that people are going to die from Covid-19.  

Can we handle that?  

Of course we can, we already do in our day to day lives.  Even with a vaccine people die of flu/influenza every year including young children, 8,511 in 2018 alone according to StatsCan.  We can't function as a society with this constant focus on trying to prevent death, its not healthy.  Even before the coronavirus Canada was expecting to have about 290,000 deaths this year, close to 800 each and every day on average.

Could some of these deaths be prevented?  Absolutely!!!  We could ban smoking, shutter schools every year during flu season, impose bans on all driving that is not absolutely essential.  We don't do those things because we accept that, well....life sucks and people die, every single day.  

You can't cheat death, it always wins in the end.  If you're a person of faith, then death isn't the end it's the beginning.  And if you're a person without faith, it doesn't matter....you're still going to die, nobody gets out of here alive.  

Large gatherings at Toronto's Trinity Bellwood park - Now we'll see what happens....

My anti lockdown opinions notwithstanding, this is not the kind of activity I would take part in or even advocate.  Lest anyone think otherwise, I do not buy into any of the conspiracy theories and I do not believe the coronavirus is a hoax, it is very real.  With that being said I do not think the threat warranted the measures brought in by governments and health officials.  But for the moment that is beside the point.

I first saw this tweeted by blogTO, but I wanted at least one additional and preferably mainstream source before chiming in, and I found it with CityNews.  First here's the video from City:

>

And here's a link to blogTO's tweet which also includes video, in my opinion a better quality video as well:

https://twitter.com/blogTO/status/1264306674296393728

It was to prevent this very type of activity that lockdown measures such as closing parks were introduced.  Large gatherings such as this, even outdoors, we're told will lead to rapid spread of the virus and cause a surge in cases that threatens to overwhelm our hospitals.  

After leaving this park many will go to homes where family members live, some will go to work, ride transit, buy gas, head to grocery stores.  Looking at both videos I think its quite reasonable to say there must have been hundreds of people in this Trinity Bellwood Park, maybe even one thousand or more.  The chances that not one single person at this park is an asymptomatic carrier would contradict everything our medical experts have been telling us.  

Given the incubation period and the time to onset of symptoms I'm figuring we're looking at 5 to 14 days from now when cases and most importantly hospitalizations should start to climb  And I'm also figuring that this was not a unique event, that there were likely other similar type happenings in other large urban park settings.  

According to the most recent data provided by the Ontario Hospital Association there are currently 964 patients hospitalized for treatment of Covid-19, with 153 being in ICUs and 120 on ventilators.  

If the experts are right we'll be seeing those numbers climbing substantially.  I'm hoping the experts are wrong, again.  

Not afraid of Covid-19? That's okay.....

Not everyone is living in fear about catching the novel and mostly benign coronavirus.  Given a choice I suspect that most would just as soon not get it, but there are obviously degrees of fear and concern.  

Canada's roads can be dangerous, around 12,000 people die or are seriously injured every year in motor vehicle accidents in this country.  Most probably don't think about it, but some do.  Some drivers avoid the hiways, or base their buying decisions on safety ratings. Volvo drivers used to be famous for this.  And hey, that's great...everyone should be free to drive the vehicle of their choice.  

But imagine someone preaching that EVERYONE should be driving a Volvo because of their outstanding safety.  "You have kids"!!!  "How can you drive them around in a SUV that's prone to roll overs!!!  If you're not going to do it for yourself at least think of your children and the people who get into your car as passengers".  Unless it was a family member you'd probably tell them to do something to themselves, I'd even say it to a family member, but that's me.

Not everyone is terrified of contracting this virus, and that's okay.  

Younger and otherwise healthy people really don't have cause to be, serious cases and deaths are overwhelmingly among the elderly and sick, those who are already dying.  Canada has been incredibly fortunate so far in that not one single death has been reported in a person under the age of 20.   Younger otherwise healthy people under 60 years of age have a better chance of being killed or seriously injured in a car accident than of dying due to Covid.  

In the United States there have been a couple of pediatric deaths where there was a positive test for Covid-19 and investigations are underway to determine the exact cause of death.  Of course that's tragic, but no more tragic than every flu season when one hundred or more children die after contracting influenza in the U.S. becasuse vaccines don't always work.  

Sometimes life sucks, but you can't stop the world from living, or at least that used to be the case.

I refuse to be gaslit by the fearful and panicked.  And I'm trying to be kind, but it can be hard.  Like that over zealous Volvo owner who wants everyone to share his or her fears, its tempting to tell them to go do something that's physically impossible.  

I'm convinced that lockdown measures and the state of fear they're creating is costing far more lives than Covid-19.  There are reports now of people going blind because they're too afraid to go for needed treatment of conditions like macular degeneration.  ERs in Canada are largely empty because people are too afraid to go to the hospital.  Speaking to hospital staff and police I know that people are dying, not from Covid-19 but because of our response. 

So, if you want to hunker in your bunker and where a mask whenever you venture outside of your house, no worries, that's your choice.  And if you're older and/or vulnerable its a wise choice.  Just don't expect everyone to share the same level of anxiety, or for everyone to start driving Volvos.  

Michael Jackson's 2009 death now listed as due to Covid-19

The U.S. Corporation for Disease Control (CDC) has issued a new directive that all celebrity deaths of the past ten years will be declared due to Covid-19, the condition that results from the novel coronavirus.  Michael Jackson's name was included because of the late pop sensation's "super" celebrity status, despite the fact that the late singer died almost 11 years ago now. 

CDC director of advertising Rex Dechepshun explained the decision during a recent press conference.  "While our numbers have been absolutely incredible, as lockdown measures are being eased we've been seeing an erosion in our ratings.  We're confident that this new directive will drive those numbers even higher than they were at the start".

When asked how it was possible for someone who passed away over ten years ago to contract the novel coronavirus Dechepshun had this to say:  "This new directive is very much on brand.  Our market research has been showing that levels of fear have been dropping.  We're trying to position Covid-19 as an incredibly lethal disease, and what could be better than having Covid-19 killing people years after they've died"! He went on to say: "We're working on several branding statements right now, the one that we'll go with will likely play something like this:  Covid-19, even death can't save you".  

The corporation is doing its utmost to ensure that this pandemic continues to surpass all others.  Its a multi agecny effort as government funded Medicare has been providing extra money for each Covid diagonsis.

Dechepsun said that media has been incredibly helpful in getting the message out, and with 10 years worth of celebrity deaths to work through it ensures that this is something that can be maintained for as long as a year and possibly even longer. 

Long term sustainable pandemic measures need to be decided upon now....

What a mess.  

Like many I'm overdosing on all things Covid.  Given that I'm in Ontario Canada I'm going to focus my remarks on the situation to my home country and province for the most part. 

One thing is crystal clear, Ontario's health care system is at the breaking point.  

We already knew this of course, the novel coronavirus has merely put this reality front and centre.  Even before the pandemic the term 'hallway medicine' was a campaign issue.  Ontario's hospitals didn't have the capacity or funding to deal with current health care needs let alone an outbreak of a new virus.  

A report by the prestigious Imperial College of London was predicing that a country of Canada's size could expect ~200,000 deaths, with critical care space in hospitals being exceeded eight times over.  Non pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) could mitigate the death toll, cutting it by half, but hospitals were still excpected to be overrun. 

In order to prepare for the anticipated surge in Covid-19 cases Ontario's health ministry chose to sacrifice other patients.  The old and sick were moved out of hospitals and into Long Term Care facilities, people needing vital cardiac surgeries were told they'd have to wait, same for people needing life saving cancer screenings.  

And in an effort to reduce the number of cases mitigation was employed, so called lockdown measures designed to reduce the number of infections.  Like many I now know about things like R0 or R naught, the basic reproduction number, how many people will get the virus from a single infected person.  Its almost like a large swath of the Canadian population has now taken Infectious Disease 101.  

And for the most part, it seems to have worked.  Unlike places like northern Italy and NYC there are no stories of Canadian hospitals being overwhelmed.  In fact there's been reporting that many Canadian hospitals are operating far below normal capacity.  CTV ran a story on April 30th with this headline:  

'All our rooms are empty' Hospital ERs vacant during pandemic

I'm not one who is given to drawing cause and effect relationships, they're too simplisitic.  But with that being sad I do think its more than reasonable to assume that lockdown measures did help to limit the spread of this virus and helped our healthcare system cope.  

But its come with one helluva price tag.

3+ million Canadians have gone from being gainfully employed taxpayers to relying on government welfare.  Schools have closed their doors, chruches are no longer meeting, in person services for the mentally ill and other vulnerable sectors have stopped.  We're seeing reports of a looming mental health pandemic.  Talk to law enforcement about the number of suicides they're seeing, as well as cases of domestic violence and abuse.  And let's not forget all the aforementioned patients wating for vital and life saving medical care that were indefinitiely postponed.  

Things are bad.  Its almost like the Titanic in my mind.  Before hitting the coronavirus iceberg life was pretty darned sweet.  Then it was time to get in the lifeboats, but there weren't enough of them.  Some people had to be left in the freezing cold waters of the North Atlantic.  

Those of us in these metaphorical lifeboats don't have all the wonderful things we had on the ship, but at least we're safe and secure.  Most people are still earning a living, still able to put food on the table and pay their rent/mortgage and utility bills.  Those in the freezing water are worried about losing their housing, feeding their kids, having enough money to keep the lights on.  But if we go to rescue them they'll swamp the lifeboats with Covid and we'll all get dragged down.

  

The efforts to slow the spread are at least as bad as the virus itself, if not worse....and perhaps much worse.  Canada isn't alone, most every developed country in the world has responded in similar fashion and the resulting slowdown in the global economy has UN hunger experts predicting a global famine of biblical proportions.  We could be seeing hundreds of thousands of people dying each and every day for about three months starting later this year, many of them young children.

The novel coronavirus isn't going away anytime soon, and it may never go away.  Every day there's encouraging news about potential vaccines, but this normally takes years, and success is not assured.  

I for one am not too keen on being injected with any agent that was rushed to market, we've been down that road before and it hasn't ended well, science takes time.  

Are we prepared to stay locked down for a year and quite possibly longer?  I don't think so.  Thankfully Ontario, like many other jurisidictions is starting to ease up.  Some businesses are being allowed to re-open, people can go to public parks again, just not on the playground equipment, golfers and tennis players can swing their clubs and raquets once more.  

Will this lead to an increase in cases?  I imagine it will, but more importantly will it lead to hospitals being overwhelmed?  I don't know the answer, I haven't seen any information put out that indicates what the capacity is like in our hospitals to cope with Covid-19 cases.  

According to a CTV story published on Friday May 22nd there are currently 961 patients in Ontario hospitals being treated for Covid, 153 of whom are in ICU with 120 on ventilators.  Given that we're opening up with these numbers I'm assuming that our hospitals can shoulder at least this load.  Can they handle more, and if so how much more?  

This is the data I'm going to be looking at most going forward.  So long as our hospitals are not being pushed beyond their capacity to cope, then in my view we have to start steering the lifeboats into the freezing waters where so many people were tossed aside.   

To mask or not to mask, that is the question....

Messaging from government and health officials during this pandemic has been absolutely horrible, of that there can be little doubt.  

Right from the start we had Canada's chief medical officer assuring Canadians that there was no need for people returning from places like Wuhan District China to be quarantied.  That the risk of human to human transmission was so incredibly low that it didn't warrant the potential stigma that these individuals might suffer.  

When lockdown measures were later introduced we were told to stay inside as much as possible, to only go out when absolutely necessary and then to head back home and shelter in place.  Some of the advice hasn't changed, its the same things we hear every flu season: Wash your hands frequently and thoroughly, cough/sneeze into your elbow or sleeve, if you're feeling sick stay home.  

The advice is always given with confidence and authority, sermonizing from the sacred book of infallible science.  And of course the same was true when we were told that masks weren't needed unless you were a front line medical worker.  That masks did little or nothing to stop viral spread or provide protection....that wearing a mask could actually increase the risk of the wearer contracting the virus.  

Now like so many of the other directives, the advice has changed yet again for masks.  Now we're being told that masks may be somewhat effective in preventing viral spread...indoors....if phsyical distancing isn't possible, but don't wear one if you have a condition like asthma.  Ugh.....

I  feel like I'm almost a qualified medical expert now, (I'm not) because I havent the foggiest notion about the effectiveness of masks.  But I can sound confident and authoritative even if I'm talking out of my nether regions, which is what it seems our medical officers are doing a lot of the time.  

The reason we were told that masks could increase the risk of the wearer contracting the virus is because most people are not trained in how to properly use PPE.  Its possible that the material on the outside of the mask could become contaminated with droplets.  And if that outside of the mask is contaminated and is touched....then all it takes is an inadvertent brush or wipe of the eyes/nose/mouth and bingo presto, you could have Covid-19.

Have you seen a mask lying on the ground somewhere?  I have, in a grocery store parking lot and on a walk through Presquil Provincial Park on the Victoria Day weekend.  You've probably seen social media posts with pictures of discarded masks and gloves.  The people tossing them on the ground may not be be ignorant, they could very well be afraid that the mask/gloves are contaminated with the virus and they have to get rid of them.  

I haven't yet worn a cloth mask , so some will probably think I'm a monster.  But I have read that people are prone to adjusting them frequently, that they cause glasses to fog up, that they can make breathing difficult.  Obviously all those activities are problematic unless you're also wearing gloves, which also could become contaminated with the virus.  

I'm a straighforward kind of guy, the type who tells you what I'm thinking without worrying about how it makes me look.  If people think I'm a jerk, I really don't care.  I do care deeply about people, especially those on the margins, but I'm not going to go out of my way to try and appear all virtuous, that stuff makes me puke.  

And one thing that really annoys the heck out of me is all the stupid memes that basically say: 

"Look at me, I'm wearing a mask because I care about other people, you see its like peeing in your jeans...blah blah blah".   

The inference is that anyone who doesn't wear a mask, that they must be selfish with no regard for other human beings.  I have two words to say to that, I won't give you the first word but the second one is 'off'.  

One question I am constantly weighing is do I want to get this virus or not.  Its a legitimate question and one that I imagine a lot of people are asking.  I'm 53, been smoking since I was 12 and have a smokers cough.  Other than that I'm a pretty healthy guy, I play tennis and basketball still....although not lately, and I walk at least 2 or 3 km each day thanks to the dog.  Today it was closer to 8 or 9 km.  

I rarely get sick, the last time was Februrary  2012 when I got hit by the flu.  It knocked me on my ass the first day, by the second I was on the mend, and on the third day I went back to work. So how great is my risk of Covid-19 being serious or fatal?  Obviously I don't know, I don't think anyone does...but I can guess.  Of Canada's current 33 odd thousand identified cases only 502 are listed as either critical or serious, that's just 1.5%.  So if I have to guess I think the chances are pretty good that I'd fall into the 98.5% for whom Covid isn't serious.  Who knows, maybe I've already had it and didn't know it?  Maybe I have it right now?

But if I had a choice of whether to get infected or not, like everyone I'd rather not.  But how much am I willing to do to ensure I don't get it?  Am I going to go out wearing a hazmat suit every time I leave the house?  While that would go a long way to ensuring I don't get infected that's obviously a bit much.  And while comparing a mask to a hazmat suit is more than a little ridiculous, wearing a mask could actually increase my risk of getting infected.

I've already made up my mind not to wear one unless its required.  I'm still working, and I do all the grocery shopping for the household, so I'm already putting myself at some degree of risk.  When I go grocery shopping and to the pharmacy I keep my distance, when picking up take out I make sure there's nobody waiting inside already.  

If I go to a store that is requiring masks and selling them, if I absolutely have to go in I'll buy one, and then carefully remove and dispose of it as soon as I get outside....but I'll try to avoid stores that require them.  Those who are all in on masks can frequent those stores that mandate their use.  

Sorry for the rambling post, if anyone made it to the end thanks for reading and I'll have more to say later I'm sure.  

What is an acceptable level of death?

I think its finally time for us to move beyond panic and fear, and to come to terms with the fact that government can't protect us from death.  

People die in Canada every day by the hundreds.  Before this pandemic Canada was forecast to have somewhere around 290,000 fatalities from all causes in 2020, that's almost 800 per day.  

The response to the novel and mostly benign coronavirus is without precedent.  If I were to sum it up I would channel Winston Churchill in saying:

'Never have so many sacrificed so much so that so few could live such a short time more'.  

As I write this Canada's death toll from Covid-19 stands at 6,152, and of course that number is going to keep climbing higher and higher.  

This virus is going to be with us a long time, and hopes of a vaccine might never come to fruition.  It may very well be that we're simply going to have to accept that people are going to die from Covid-19.  No different from the fact that 8,511 Canadians died from inluenza/pneumonia in 2018 as per StatsCan, the 6th leading cause of death that year.  

Death sucks, we're all against it.  But we've never done anything like turning our entire world upside down trying to prevent it, we accept the risks and get on with living.  

The number one cause of death in Canada during that 2018 year was cancer not suprisingly at almost 80,000 lives lost.  Cancer isn't contagious of course like the coronavirus or flu, but in some cases it is preventable such as with smoking.  The Canadian government could have banned smoking and saved the lives of perhaps 45,000 people each year as per a Conference Board of Canada report, as well as $6.5 billion in savings for health care systems.  But for whatever reason its never even been seriously considered or debated.

Number two is heart disease at over 53,000 in 2018.  Again, not contagious but still preventable in many cases.  Heart disease is often termed a lifestyle disease.  Those who are obese are at greater risk.  Could Canadian governments do more to promote healthy living, like having a national fitness campaign?  With all the money being thrown at the coronavirus pandemic I imagine a fraction of that amount could have enormous benefits.  Maybe we could force all fast food restaraunts to close the way we've put small family owned establishments out of business now.  

Number three is strokes at 13,480 deaths, followed by accidents at 13,290 and then at number five comes chronic lower respitory diseases with 12,998.  And that brings us back to the aforementioned flu/influenza deaths at 8,511 coming in at number six.  StatsCan puts influenza and pneumonia together, and I assume that's because the flu often progresses to pneumonia.  

Despite all this death governments have never before attempted to wrap the population in bubble wrap to save as many lives as possible.  Almost 2,000 people died in car accidents in 2018, along with almost 10,000 serious injuries....often very young children.  Over 30 people killed or injured on Canadian roads each and every day.  That's close to 12,000 people in total either dying or being seriously injured in vehicles, and yet we've never seen a massive response.  

This novel coronavirus is a threat, just like cancer, heart disease, car accidents and all the rest.  And our response needs to be proportionate to that threat.  If there's a squirrel in your attic you don't burn the house down.  While that analogy might be a little over the top, I don't think its that big a stretch.  

3+ million Canadians have gone from being tax paying workers to receipents of government welfare.  Unemployment can lead to depression, alcohol and substance abuse, spousal and child abuse...suicide.  

By shuttering schools, churches and other community based programs and activities our children may be paying the heaviest price.  Teachers and other professions that work with youth are trained to recognize the signs of possible physical, mental and sexual abuse....those safegaurds have been sacrificed, sorry kids.   

Is all this collateral death, pain and misery worth it when we're fighting a virus that overwhelmingly attacks those who are already elderly and dying?  I don't think so.  If it is then we should also ban all non-essential vehicular traffic, because all lives matter....not just those who are at risk of dying from Covid-19.  

 

Now is the perfect time for Canadian governments to ban smoking....

Canada's response to the current pandemic has shown what can be accomplished when governments are motivated.  Previously we've only seen this during times of war I would argue, when money is no object to achieving a military goal.  This time money was no object in attempting to stop the spread of the novel and mostly benign coronavirus.  

Schools shuttered, gatherings of more than five people made illegal, churches cited for conducting worship services, tickets issued for strolling through a park or shooting hoops solo in a playground.  3+ millions Canadians turned from tax paying workers into government welfare receipients, countless businesses shut down, some never to re-open.  

Will it prove to have been worth it?  

I have little doubt that academics will be pubishing research papers for ten years or more on the subject, criticizing certain aspects, praising others.  How many people will have died because of surgeries that were delayed or cancer screenings that were put off?  How many incidents of domestic violence and abuse will result?  How many suicides?  

While I think the costs will far outweigh the benefits, that's beside the point of another modest, and quite serious, little proposal I have.  

That the possession, sale, distribution and use of tobacco products in Canada be banned completely. 

Consider the human cost, the Conference Board of Canada says that over 45,000 Canadians die every year as a direct result of smoking.  Sure its a voluntary activity, but going to church used to be voluntary as well and that was made illegal.  

And let's not leave out another important aspect, part of the rationale for lockdown measures was to save the beleagured and underfunded Canadian health care system from being overrun.  That same Conference Board of Canada report puts a price tag of $6.5 billion in direct costs to the health care system due to smoking.  

Save money, save lives....its win win.  

Lockdown measures to fight Covid have largely been lose lose.  Even though we know (and knew) that it was mostly LTC residents who were at the greatest risk we still weren't able to save thousands of them, and we borrowed like Donald Trump when financing a casino purchase in trying.  DJT filed  for bankruptcy when he couldn't make the payments by the way.  

If the government is really interested in the health and welfare of Canadians, and in saving the health care system, then this is a complete no brainer.  If they don't even consider it, then I don't think its unreasonable to question whether locking down the country was really done to save lives and to take strain off the heath care system either.   

And by the way, I'm a smoker.   

Time to stop ridiculous comparisons between Covid-19 and the Spanish flu

Panic porn.  

I wish I could take credit for that characterization of the media coverage of the coronavirus pandemic, but I can't, I got it from Bill Mahar.  But I like it, and I don't think its been copy written so I'm stealing it because its perfect.  That's what media outlets have been peddling since everything started back in mid March.

And one of the best examples of panic porn is all the comparisons with the Spanish flu.  This is not the Spanish flu folks, not even close.  

Comparing the mostly benign coronavirus with the deadly Spanish Flu is like a beer league softball team comparing itself with the 92 and 93 World Series champion Toronto Blue Jay teams.  Yeah, there are some similarities, but let's be rational at least for a second.  

The Spanish flu killed approximately 55,000 Canadians in 1918-1920, most of whom were between the ages of 20 and 40.  Back in 1918 Canada's population was about 8.1 million, compared with our current population of ~38 million.  

For Covid-19 to reach the same level of mortality that the Spanish Flu did we'd need to see over 250,000 deaths reported.  As I write this we're at 6,145.  Obviously the death toll is going to keep climbing, but nobody is predicting anything close to 250,000 deaths in Canada from Covid.  

And while the Spanish Flu cut down people in the prime of their lives, overwhemingly the vast majority of Canadian Covid-19 deaths occur in what can best be described as the adult diaper years.  I appologize if that sounds crass and unkind, but its not nearly as crass and irresponsible as media outlets making outlandish comparisons and driving fear and panic in my opinion.  

According to Dr. Tam over 80% of deaths in Canada have happened in LTC facilities, and people don't go into nursing home type establishment unless they're already on their last legs....the batteries on their lives are down to the last few percentage points.  

Take away the LTC numbers and Canada is under 1,300 deaths due to Covid so far.  Over 13,000 Canadians died from accidents in 2018 according to StatsCan.  Incidentally, providing perspective and benchmarks isn't a cover up of truth, it is truth, which is another lesson our media needs to re-learn.  The sixth leading cause of death in that 2018 year was influenza/pneumonia at 8,511.  

Again, this isn't the Spanish Flu.  In many respects Covid-19 isn't even as bad as the regular seasonal flu which kills thousands of children every year around the world.  Thankfully thus far, Covid-19 hasn't claimed a single Canadian child's life.  And while I pray that never happens, if it does I expect our sensationalistic media will abandon all reason and persepctive once again in an effort to generate clicks by stoking fear and panic.

And for this we've killed countless people by delaying needed surgeries and cancer screenings.  We've subjected children to hunkering down in households with parents who've lost jobs but still have access to essential booze.  Depression, fear, anxiety, suicide, spousal and child abuse, and a world wide famine due to the economic fallout of lockdown measures around the world. 

Our goverments panicked, and its the marginalized and vulnerable who will be paying the biggest price.  And sadly many so called progressives have succomb to the fear as well, and have abandoned the causes they used to champion.  

Shuttering schools is not how you keep children safe....

Its hard to think straight when you're scared, and many Canadians are terrified of the novel and mostly benign coronavirus.  Its said that a drowning man will grab at an anchor if its thrown to him, such are the decisions one makes when in a panic.

We've been grabbing a lot of anchors in our efforts to slow down the spread of this virus, and now Ontario (among others) has decided that vulnerable children can also be sacrificed, along with the people who've died from having needed surgeries delayed, or from cancelled cancer screenings that would have made treatment possible, or from suicide caused by the depression of losing one's job, income and identity.

While its easy to bury our heads in the sand and pretend that no children in Ontario are abused, common sense says we have to open our eyes.  

Schools along with other community orginizations like churches and camps are vital in protecting the health and well being of children.  Even as a simple Sunday school teacher I had to take part in training about what to look for and what to do when dealing with children who show possible signs of abuse, be it mental, physical or sexual.  

There are millions of Canadians out of work, and liquor stores have been deemed essential.  You don't need a PHD in the social sciences to understand that this is a recipe for diaster. 

We're doing this to stop kids from getting infected with the coronavirus.  Yet we've never even considered shuttering schools during flu season, and seasonal flu kills Canadian children every year.  Here's a link to a CBC story from January 2019 about six children who had died up to that date during the 2018/2019 flu season.  

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/flu-1.4975466?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar&fbclid=IwAR2aFyQE4ieNLchx2athZqyWuoCtFm4bym-GWXgMyJWrjzwylUt9bSfFrUM

I know that some will point out that is is a "novel" virus, its new and we don't fully understand it, that it could mutate and become deadly in children.  That is true, but that's also true of influenza strains every flu season as well.  Just look at what happened when the H1N1 strain hit us, deaths and hospitlizations spiked during that pandemic, estimated to have killed as many as 575,000 people worldwide.

2009 H1N1 Pandemic (H1N1pdm09 virus)

Yes, some hospitals were overrun in 2009 and triage was used to determine order of treatment.  That's the way medical systems work, health professionals prioritize, its nothing new.  

But even with all that death and disease we never sacrificed people in need of cardiac surgery and cancer screenings.  And we never sacrificed children to situations where parents are tossed out of work with booze deemed essential, and then removed all the support systems society has in place to protect them.

I'll have more to say later, thanks for reading.  

Are U.S. hospitals boosting Covid numbers? It is possible

Like many people I've heard stories that U.S. hospitals get extra funding for treating Covid-19 patients, but I didn't know whether or not that was true.  According to a report done by CBS news, it is.  

As per  a CBS San Diego affiliate, hospitals treating patients for Covid-19 receive substantially more money than treatments for non Covid patients.  The article cites a Minnesota State senator putting the amount at $13,000 for someone admitted with Covid and $39,000 if they're put on a ventilator.  However a Medicare spokesperson says that the amount varies hospital to hospital based on variations in local costs.

Here's the link:  

https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/verify/do-hospitals-get-paid-more-for-covid-19-cases/509-977c448f-d9a6-42f8-a443-968e9b610cac?fbclid=IwAR1_dVOmsoaX1HCwPxgwsRPm7VTeSwsQb0Lk1TQoupBSO70ZT0zvNhb5zL4

For those who aren't aware, hospitals in the United States are for the most part profit driven.  That doesn't mean that the entire American medical system is removed from government funding.  U.S. citizens aged 65 and up qualify for government provided health insurance via Medicare, so long as they've been residents for 5 or more years.  

Given that the novel and mostly benign coronavirus overwhelmingly targets the elderly and health compromised, that's a lot of money for a country with a reported 1.1 million active cases.  And that  number is sure to keep climbing higher and higher, substantially higher if fears about the relaxation of lockdown measures prove true.  

Does this financial incentive mean hospitals are falsifying discharge papers and death certificantes?  Of course it doesn't, but it is possible.  According to the report such actions would result in the payments being recouped as well as possible legal action.  

Given my opinion of human nature, especially when money is involved, I don't have any difficulty in picturing hospital adminstrators pressuring doctors to list Covid-19 as a cause of death when someone dies of cancer or heart failure or any number of conditions.  How would you be able to prove the deceased didn't have Covid?  Would they dig up a body and conduct a coronavirus test post mortem?

And given the financial strain hospitals are under, well....necessity isn't just the mother of invention, necessity is also the mother of lies and deceit.  U.S. hospitals are hurting financially right now, so much so that they're furloughing Doctors, Nurses and other staff.  Reports say 1.4 million health care workers were laid off in April alone.  No wonder so many American health care professionals are starting to speak out against lockdown measures.  

On the flip side I also think its possible that some jurisdictions are underreporting.  With the lack of availability of testing kits I have read news reports that some countries are not counting deaths as  due to Covid unless there's a positive test to back it up.  

And that makes this whole situation even more complicated.  How can you manage a situation without reasonably accurate measurements.  Financial incentives could be goosing the number of deaths in the United States, but it could also be lowering the numbers in countries like Japan where testing is a fraction of what's taking place in countries like the United States and Canada.  Both Canada and the U.S. are testing over 35,000 people per one million of populaiton while in Japan its only a little over 2,000 per one million of population.

Thanks for reading, I'll have more to say later.    

The Politics of a Pandemic - Everyone is doing the right things.....

Canadians, no matter where they live, can be assured of one thing in our fight against the novel coronavirus.  Whatever goverment is in place they are following the best advice of medical professionals and are being guided by the science, protecting the health and safety of citizens.   

That's true federally where the Liberals are in power, in British Columbia where the NDP rules,  also in Ontario where Doug Ford's Prorgessive Conservatives hold a majority, as well in Quebec where its François Legault and the Coalition Avenir de Québec calling the shots.  Every level of government across Canada is making all the right decisions. 

It was true when the nation's top medical officer did not require people coming back from hotspots like Wuhan China and Italy to quarantine themselves, and that masks weren't required.  And its true now that everyone is under a form of quasi quarantine and should wear a mask when indoors and unable to maintain physical distance....unless they have asthma or a lung condition which makes breathing through a mask difficult, then maybe not...

Is it any wonder Canadians, like a lot of people around the world, are confused.

Sweden is a favourite example for both those who think we've gone too far, as well as for those who think we either got it right or need to do even more.  As most readers will be aware, Sweden opted not to bring in strong lockdown measures.  

They didn't do nothing, but when compared to a country like Canada it was close to nothing.  So many of the closures deemed essential here, like shuttering elementary schools, bars and restaraunts were left open in Sweden.  They did ban public gatherings of more than 50 people, required all bar and restaraunt patrons to be seated, and urged people to work from home when possible and for the elderly and health compromised to isolate.

How they fared when compared to other jurisdictions is up for debate.  Their reported death toll is significantly higher than in Canada or in neighbouring Norway and Denmark, but far less when compared with other European countries that opted for strong lockdown measures like Belgium and Spain.  

With such wildly varying results I consider it at least reasonable to question whether or not strong lockdown measures are the deciding factor in how a country fares in its fight against the novel and mostly benign coronavirus.  Factors like vitamin D deficiency, the obesity rate of a population, population densities and likely many other variables could play a significant role in determining why some countries are experiencing higher rates of death than others.

Just looking at obesity, the United States reportedly has roughly one third of its citizens with Body Mass Indexes (BMI) above 30 which is the clinical threshold for declaring someone obese.  Of course in our politically correct times the Coronavirus might be dragged in front of a human rights tribunal for fat shaming if its true that Covid-19 is more deadly for the overweight as some studies are now indicating.

I have not been shy about expressing my opinion that I think Sweden chose the best path, not perfect but better than the route we chose.  Its a horrible situation, because no matter what road is taken the result is the same....death.  Tossing millions of Canadians out of work and onto government assistance (if they qualify and not everyone does) will have negative reprecussions, progressives have long known that poverty kills.  

And while it may sound crass, implementing measures that have tanked the global economy to levels not seen since the Great Depression, (and very likely worse) so that the sick and elderly can have a few more months of diaper changes was the wrong way to go in my opinion.  

Those who are worried that we're moving too soon and too fast in opening things back up though, of one thing you can be absolutely certain.  Our elected officials are acting on the best advice of medical professionals, they're being guided by the science and making the best possible decisions to protect the health and safety of everyone.  

Are we ready to be locked down for another 12+ months?

There's a lot of fear and anxiety out there as provinces begin to lift the isolation measures put in place to slow the spread of the novel and mostly benign coronavirus.  That's understandable, with so many comparisons to the lethal and devastating Spanish Flu still floating around its only natural for some to be worred.  And in our polarized world of right and wrong, black and white, good versus evil, lots of people are seeing this as an either or question.

Intelligent people though know that life is seldom that simple, especially in areas of government mandated public policy.

First of all it has to be realized that the isolation measures put in place, (such as they are and were) were never meant to stamp out this virus.  The purpose was to slow the spread, to flatten the proverbial curve so that our health care system would not be overloaded.  I think its more than reasonable to say that this goal has been accomplished.  

Obviously there was still viral spread happening even with isolation measures, but that was unavoidable given the essential nature of the supply chain.  I don't even like imagining the chaos that would have ensued if grocery store shelves were empty for weeks at a time with people forced to stay inside their homes.  Those eagerly awaiting the Zombie Appocolypse would have gotten their wish.

Flattening the curve doesn't stop viral spread, it simply delays it.  And unless we're all willing to hunker in our bunkers for another year or more (perhaps indefinitely) while we wait for a vaccine, then at some point the clamps have to be loosened.  And as restrictions are eased we're going to be seeing more infections, its inevitable and we should expect it.  

Beyond just flattening the curve and delaying infections, isolation measures have bought us time so that now we know so much more about this novel Coronavirus and the resulting Covid-19 illness.  

We know that overwhemlingly most negative outcomes happen in the elderly and health compromised.  Dr. Tam herself acknowledged this with the news that 81% of Canada's deaths are occuring in Long Term Care type facilities, where residents are both old and sick already.  Even in the small number of  younger people getting sick and dying of Covid there's emerging research suggesting a link between Vitamin D deficiency and serious illness.  

We've learned a lot thanks to social distancing, and we can use this knowledge to make informed decisions going forward.  Not everyone will listen, that's to be expected, we've had decades of research and science telling Canadians to stop smoking, and yet millions still do, I'm one of them.  

In short the number of cases isn't the number to watch in my opinion, its the number of hospitalizations and the degree to which our health care system is under strain.  And we should also remember that our hosptials were often over capacity even before this pandemic.  The term "hallway medicine" didn't result from Covid, it was already a normal state of affairs.

Lockdown measures are not a cure all, and in of themselves come with all manner of negative health issues and death.  As we slowly open back up we just need to be smart and protect the people the science says are most vulernable.  

Thanks for reading, I'll have more to say later.

Are we ready to move past panic mode now?

Liberal progressive consumers of news have long known that it pays to be skeptial of over the top reporting.  Whether it was the Gulf of Tonkin incident in Viet Nam or the more recent wars in the Persian Gulf, with Iraq presented as a major threat to world peace and security, the media loves to play on fear.  

A lot of Canadians are scared right now, and that is understandable given the fashion in which most media outlets have been reporting on the novel coronavirus.  I've seen frequent reference to:  "The deadly coronavirus".  And over the top messaging talking about the: "Tsunami of death".  

This is beyond irresponsible, its not reporting but hyperbole on steroids.  If media outlets treated all topics this way we'd have been reading about 'Killer Peanuts' for years now.  US comedian and political commentator Bill Mahar has used the term "Panic Porn" and its very fitting.  

Let's take a calm and rationale look at some simple and easily verifiable facts instead.  

Canada is reported to have 5,842 deaths attributed to Covid-19.  Over 80% of those deaths are occuring in Long Term Care type facilities, a Washington Post article from May 18th 2020 puts it at 81% as per Canada's Chief Public Health Officer.   At 80% that would put LTC deaths at 4,673 with the remaining deaths at 1,169....and of course those numbers are going to keep climbing.  

Death is tragic at any age, but to give the reporting some perspective consider the health of people in LTC type facilities.  Here are some statistics from 2019 from the Ontario Long Term Care Association:  

• 90% have some form of cognitive impairment
• 86% of residents need extensive help with daily activities such as getting out of bed, eating, or toileting
• 80% have neurological diseases
• 76% have heart/circulation diseases
• 64% have a diagnosis of dementia
• 62% have musculoskeletal diseases such as arthritis and osteoporosis
• 61% take 10 or more prescription medications
• 40% need monitoring for an acute medical condition
• 21% have experienced a stroke

Those wishing to verify this information, please do.  Here's the link:

https://www.oltca.com/oltca/OLTCA/Public/LongTermCare/FactsFigures.aspx?fbclid=IwAR2E0XAv-UotB3nzf9gFxtWd-d2omN5QwIhg1MZUOq7sH10n6uj6AsRFYCY

Death is never anything but tragic, of that there is little argument.  But I think most would agree that the death of a young child to something like a drunk driving accident is exponentially more tragic than the death of someone over 80 years of age who suffers from alzheimers and cardivocascular diesease.  Speaking as someone who has lost both his parents as well as both the grandparents I knew about growing up, sometimes death is viewed as a relief.  Sad and depressing, but a relief all the same, both for the person suffering as well as their family. 

One of the small blessings we can be thankful for with this pandemic is that Covid-19 has not taken the lives of any Canadian children.  Hopefully that will remain true, unlike seasonal flu which can be lethal to young children.   

Death is a depressing topic....for anyone.  Canada was likely going to have somewhere around 280,000 deaths this year before this novel virus reared its ugly head, now I expect that number will be higher.  The fact is every single Canadian (as well as everyone on the planet) suffers from a terminal illness called living, and the mortality rate is 100%.  As my late beloved father told me many times:  "Nobody gets out of here alive".  

But to get back to the topic at hand, about whether we're ready to move past panic mode now.  The first question one might reasonably ask is this:  Did we panic?  

For me the answer is unquestionably yes.  How else would you describe sacrificing people in need of cardiac surgery and cancer screening?  Or how about tossing millions of Canadians out of work and into the poverty that comes from living off government assistance.  And to add insult to injury the messaging is that these people are not essential.  

I'm sorry, but this really gets under my skin....this categorization of a human being's worth based on the job they preform.  Progressive types have campaigned about this for decades, advocating for the marginalized whether they be miners, factory workers, the unemployed, underemployed or any other group that has its humanity dimished, its disgusting.  

Does any one know a single mother who supports herself and her kids by waiting on tables in a restaraunt?  I know two, serving tables is a job that often falls on women, especially those not fortunate enough to have a post secondary education.  Now, on top of being out of work and forced onto government welfare, now they're being told they're not essential.  I don't like to use profanity, but sometimes its called for.  And this is BULL SHIT!!!

Everyone is essential.  

Yes, the novel coronavirus can be deadly, but not for 99% of the population.  Canada has reported 78,702 confirmed cases as I type this, with 33,002 being current.  Every health expert and medical professional is telling us that this is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg.  The reason this is just a small fraction of the real total case number is that most people have only very minor symptoms or none at all, and they don't get tested. 

While Canada has not yet conducted any large scale radomized testing to get a better handle on what the actual case count is, other jurisdictions have.  Places like California, NYC and Great Britain have conducted radmoized sampling by respected academic institutions like Stanford, USC and Oxford.  Their findings suggest the real case numbers are at least 20x larger, and perhaps as much as 55x larger than what is being reported.

If Canada's true case number is 20x higher than what has been confirmed, then the real case number is around 1.5 million.  And that would mean our mortality rate is less than half of one single percent.  Its worse than seasonal flu, but not the 'at least 10x more deadly' messaging used at the start.

And for this we've thrown 3 million working Canadians under the bus, subjected many to the stress of economic uncertainty....stress that can lead to depression, alcohol and substance abuse, spousal and child abuse, suicide.  These are issues that progressives used to care about, but now some are so afraid of the mostly benign coronavirus that they've forgotten to advocate for Canada's marginalized citizens. 

And sadly it gets worse, the economic fallout of lockdown measures has the UN warning about a pending global famine that will see over 100 million more people worldwide pushed to starvation, that we'll be seeing reports of 300,000 people dying each and every day for about three months, many of them children.   

I'll have more to say later, thank you for reading.