Thursday, May 21, 2020

Time to stop ridiculous comparisons between Covid-19 and the Spanish flu


Panic porn.  

I wish I could take credit for that characterization of the media coverage of the coronavirus pandemic, but I can't, I got it from Bill Mahar.  But I like it, and I don't think its been copy written so I'm stealing it because its perfect.  That's what media outlets have been peddling since everything started back in mid March.

And one of the best examples of panic porn is all the comparisons with the Spanish flu.  This is not the Spanish flu folks, not even close.  

Comparing the mostly benign coronavirus with the deadly Spanish Flu is like a beer league softball team comparing itself with the 92 and 93 World Series champion Toronto Blue Jay teams.  Yeah, there are some similarities, but let's be rational at least for a second.  

The Spanish flu killed approximately 55,000 Canadians in 1918-1920, most of whom were between the ages of 20 and 40.  Back in 1918 Canada's population was about 8.1 million, compared with our current population of ~38 million.  

For Covid-19 to reach the same level of mortality that the Spanish Flu did we'd need to see over 250,000 deaths reported.  As I write this we're at 6,145.  Obviously the death toll is going to keep climbing, but nobody is predicting anything close to 250,000 deaths in Canada from Covid.  

And while the Spanish Flu cut down people in the prime of their lives, overwhemingly the vast majority of Canadian Covid-19 deaths occur in what can best be described as the adult diaper years.  I appologize if that sounds crass and unkind, but its not nearly as crass and irresponsible as media outlets making outlandish comparisons and driving fear and panic in my opinion.  

According to Dr. Tam over 80% of deaths in Canada have happened in LTC facilities, and people don't go into nursing home type establishment unless they're already on their last legs....the batteries on their lives are down to the last few percentage points.  

Take away the LTC numbers and Canada is under 1,300 deaths due to Covid so far.  Over 13,000 Canadians died from accidents in 2018 according to StatsCan.  Incidentally, providing perspective and benchmarks isn't a cover up of truth, it is truth, which is another lesson our media needs to re-learn.  The sixth leading cause of death in that 2018 year was influenza/pneumonia at 8,511.  

Again, this isn't the Spanish Flu.  In many respects Covid-19 isn't even as bad as the regular seasonal flu which kills thousands of children every year around the world.  Thankfully thus far, Covid-19 hasn't claimed a single Canadian child's life.  And while I pray that never happens, if it does I expect our sensationalistic media will abandon all reason and persepctive once again in an effort to generate clicks by stoking fear and panic.

And for this we've killed countless people by delaying needed surgeries and cancer screenings.  We've subjected children to hunkering down in households with parents who've lost jobs but still have access to essential booze.  Depression, fear, anxiety, suicide, spousal and child abuse, and a world wide famine due to the economic fallout of lockdown measures around the world. 

Our goverments panicked, and its the marginalized and vulnerable who will be paying the biggest price.  And sadly many so called progressives have succomb to the fear as well, and have abandoned the causes they used to champion.  



2 comments:

The Disaffected Lib said...

There's your problem, Gordie. You're taking your cues from Bill Maher.

This is a replay of climate change denial or, for that matter, most conspiracy theories.

What Bill Maher things really doesn't count for much. Not when we have epidemiologists, virologists and other top-tier scientists who have been working on these contagions for decades. That's where I go to inform myself.

You wrote another post about Covid-19 not being a repeat of the Spanish flu of 1918-19. Has it dawned on you that the history of the Spanish flu was written well after it was over? The Covid-19 pandemic is still spreading and it's still in the first wave. Are you aware of how the first wave of the Spanish flu was eclipsed in the death toll by the second wave?

There's a gaping illogic in comparing Covide-19 to date, a still incomplete first wave pandemic, to a three wave Spanish flu a century ago. The comparison is facile.

If you're going to inform your opinion on the strength of a guy like Maher when there's an abundance of brilliant medical and scientific knowledge at your fingertips that you don't seem to grasp, what are we to make of it?

Gordie Canuk said...

I'm not taking cues from Bill Mahar, I just like his characterization of sensationalistic and irresponsible media. I think you're old enough to remember news outlets eagerly repeating the propaganda that Iraq soliders were tossing babies from incubators to manufacture consent for the first Persian Gulf war.

As for informing myself based on science, I'm all for that and I'm doing my best....but its all over the place. Some epidemilogists and infectious disease experts are saying to open up, others are warning to stay locked down. I'm sure you saw the signed letter that was put out by 4 or 5 qualified experts calling on governments to open up in order to stop killing people from all the side effects of current lockdown measures.....

As for Mahar, sometimes I like him, sometimes I don't....I like his stance on Donald Trump (he can't stand him) but don't care for his attacks on religion.

You are absolutely right about the waves of the Spanish flu...like regular influenza strains the coronavirus could maybe mutate and become more deadly in the broader population....right now in Canada there hasn't been a single death of anyone under 20 reported....hopefully that remains the case, or that the deaths are so low as to be statistically insignificant.

Thanks for reading.....

Thanks for reading...