Wednesday, December 1, 2021

What percentage of fully vaccinated Ontarians are testing positive for Covid?

In Ontario many people who have opted against getting a Covid vaccine are required to submit to regular and frequent testing in order to be able to work or engage in certain other activities.  Those who've rolled up their sleeves are typically exempt.  Frankly I can't see any reason why a vaccinated person would want to be tested for a disease they've been immunized against.  

The only possible reason that makes sense to me is if a vaccinated person is sick with symptoms of Covid and wants confirmation whether or not it's a breakthrough infection.  Otherwise why bother getting a probe shoved so far into your nasal cavity that it practically scratches your brain?  

Typically Ontario tests somewhere between 20 and 30 odd thousand perople per day.  It stands to reason that the overwhelming majority of the people being testeed are the unvaccinated, there are millions available.  I'm sure that's been the motivation for some in opting to get the shots, to avoid the need for testing.  

Just guessing (with the province not disclosing the numbers that's all one can do) let's assume that out of 21,476 tests reported on Tuesday November 30th, that 90% of those were unvaccinated, getting tested because it's a requirement, and only 10% are vaccinated.  

We'll say that 2,150 of the tests were done on the vaccinated, the rest on the unvaccinated.  On that day there were 308 cases among people fully vaccinated.  That would put the positivity rate for the vaccinated at 14.3%.  That leaves 19,326 tests done on the unvaccinated, with 310 of the tests being positive for a positivity rate of just 1.6%. 

These are just logical assumptions, but logic aside they're still assumptions.  The province can eliminate the need to make assumptions by simply providing the data.  If you're going to compare data based on percentages the denominator is obviously of vital importance, otherwise it gives the appearance of deceptively playing with the numbers to push a narrative....which is something that is done in politics all the time but has no place in science.  

Simply give the numbers, how many tests were done in total, how many of that number were unvaccinated, fully vaccinated, partially vaccinated or status unknown.  Then let the facts speak for themselves.  If you want to combat hesitancy and mistrust the best way is through transparency, making all the information available.  If you cherry pick then others will do the same.  




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