Jack Layton's passing, let's leave the analysis for another day....

So what does the passing of NDP leader Jack Layton mean? 

Let's forget about that for now and just take a bit of time to admire the man for his energy, his convictions and passion.  They say a candle burns brightest before it goes out, and that is a fitting description of how Jack Layton captivated a significant portion of the electorate and vaulted the NDP to never before seen heights for Canada's socialist party in our most recent election.

I was as shocked as anyone at how gaunt and aged Jack looked during the news conference when he announced he was taking time off to battle cancer, but I'll relegate that image to the back of the photo library and instead remember the vibrant campaigner who exuded energy, even while using a cane.

Rest well and be at peace Jack Layton.

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Stephen Harper tweets that a coalition government would be legitimate

Democracy is all about choices, deciding which individuals and which parties we want to represent us in government.  There has been some concern that Stephen Harper might not accept the rules of our democracy if he were to be leading a minority government that again quickly loses the confidence of the House of Commons. 

Well, based on the Prime Minister's twitter account, (#pmharper) we needn't be concerned.  The tweet made yesterday put the issue to rest.

"Canada’s Choice: Stable national majority Conservative govt OR unstable coalition of Ignatieff-NDP-Bloc"

The tweet contains a link to the Conservative Party's website and a press release that says in part:

“The choice for Canadians is crystal clear,” said Harper.  “Continuing our low-tax plan to complete the recovery and create jobs, financial security, stability and certainty for Canadian families and businesses.  Or the high-tax, reckless-spending Ignatieff-NDP-Bloc Québécois agenda that will stall our recovery, kill jobs and produce political instability and economic uncertainty by re-opening constitutional debates.

Now, obviously Mr. Harper thinks that a Conservative majority  preferable, that's politics.  Leaders always say that their platform is better and that if their opponents win it will be bad for the country.

But the ultimate decision rests with the electorate and its gratifying to see that Stephen Harper acknowledges that it is in fact our (the voters) collective choice.  Its probably a moot point given that I think a Harper majority is what we'll be facing Monday evening.  But if the opposition parties do manage to pull a rabbit out of the hat its nice to know that Stephen Harper recognizes the rules our our democracy and will accede if Canadian voters opt for the coalition. 

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Its going to be a Harper Majority

The polls open in less than 24 hours, so its time for a prediction...and sorry to say it looks to me like a Harper majority.  Based on the polls, especially those relating to the province of Ontario, I see Harper's Conservatives garnering somewhere around 160 seats nationally.

Obviously my guess is not worth much, my projection and a TTC token will get you a subway ride to downtown Toronto.  But I'll explain my rationale none the less.

The bottom line is that its going to all come down to the province of Ontario, and in my home province I see the Tories making big gains due to vote splitting between the NDP and Liberals, allowing Conservative candidates to split up the middle. 

If there's a wild card I see it resting with the number of ballots cast.  If the turnout is as abysmal as it was in 2008 it favours the Conservatives.  Conversely if turnout is a robust 70% or more, then I see that hurting the chances of Harper winning his majority.  But I'm not optimistic about heavy voter turn out, because there's no reason to be.

Jack Layton has been the star of this election, while Michael Ignatieff's energetic and earnest efforts failed to connect.  Even with Layton's performance, I don't see either leader inspiring casual followers of the campaign to get off the couch tomorrow and head to the polls.

So here are the numbers I'm predicting, and if I end up being 100% correct I'll fall off my chair.  We'll see if I'm close:

Cons 162

NDP  79

Libs    48 

Bloc   19

Sorry Liz, my call...close but no cookie.

I do hope I'm wrong, especially now that PMHarper just tweeted yesterday that a coalition government is a legitimate option.  I'll write more on that later today. 

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Sun Media - Smear trumps journalism

Okay, we all know the story by now.  Jack Layton went to a licensed massage clinic something like 15 or 16 years ago.  Yawn.

That an organization that tries to pass itself off as a source for news would even bother reporting this is one thing, but the least they could have done is some research into the matter.  But of course with an election looming in just 72 hours or so...well, journalism got tossed out the window in favour of sensationalism.  But then, this is the Sun we're talking about, and the target is NDP leader Jack Layton.

The article (which I won't deign to link because it doesn't merit it) makes numerous allegations, citing an unnamed source, that among other things the establishment in question was a "suspected" bawdy house.  For those unfamiliar bawdy houses are sometimes called "rub and tugs".

Okay, now here's where things like journalism and integrity come in.  Start digging Sun Media.  Before going to print with a story like this just before an election, check out some facts. 

Was this place ever charged with any offences relating to rubbing and tugging?  Were any "Johns" as Jack Layton is portrayed, ever charged with soliciting?

Pffffffffffffft, that would take work.  And besides with the vote so close and Jack's NDP surging in the polls, well there just wasn't time.  Will it work?  That's for Canadian voters to decide.

No wonder so many people consider the Sun a worthless rag.

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Canadian Soapbox Exclusive - Jack Layton hit a girl in kindergarten

Jack Layton is alleged to have hit a girl when he was in pre-school back in 1955. 

A now retired kindergarten teacher has made startling allegations against NDP leader Jack Layton.  The stunning revelation about the current leader of the New Democratic Party comes days before the federal election, at a time when his popularity is reaching new heights with his New Democratic Party threatening to topple the Stephen Harper led Conservative government.

The former educator, speaking on condition of anonymity, contacted Canadian Soapbox about the incident which occurred in 1955 when Mr. Layton was 5 years of age. 

"At the time I didn't think anything of it, until recently I'd actually forgotten it", the now 92 year teacher said.  "But then I kept seeing little Jackie in the news and I started going through my old files".

Those files reveal a report dated  September 27, 1955 which outlines the incident.  Canadian Soapbox has received permission to make a copy of the incident report, which says in part:

2:00 PM  Jackie Layton got into an argument with Jane Wilson over an orange crayon just after nap time.  Jackie said Jane had stolen it from his box and rather than notifying the teacher he punched Jane in the arm causing her to cry out and bite him. 

Olivia Chow, Layton's wife, denied her husband had done anything wrong in an e-mail statement late Friday night.

"Fifty six years ago, my husband got into an argument over an orange crayon.  He used to colour regularly and orange is his favourite colour, I don't believe he did anything wrong". 

Asked why she waited so long to come forward with this news Layton's former teacher said she was surprised the story hasn't already been made public.  "I thought this would have come out. This thing within class and by other teachers was so well known."

Jack Layton was warned of the dangers of resorting to violence to resolve conflicts after school that day.  "He came to school on  a bicycle. I escorted him outside and he went away on his bike."

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Harper majority out of reach? DON'T BET ON IT!!!

Surprise surprise, Stephen Harper's tightly controlled campaign machine has sprung a leak. The Toronto Star is reporting that senior Conservative party insiders are saying 'they're just not there' in terms of being able to garner enough seats after Monday's vote to win a majority.  STORY HERE

I usually try to refrain from using profanity, but I gotta call BS on this one. 

I will admit to a nano second or two of euphoria when I saw the headline, but that was quickly replaced by the realization that this is Stephen Harper we're talking about, a micro managing control freak.  The idea that "high ranking" sources within the CPC would break ranks and leak this kind of story...let's just say I'm more than a little suspicious.

Roughly two out of every three Canadian voters oppose and will vote against Harper according to every poll available.  That's not surprising in the least.  What is surprising is that 1 out of 3 will actually vote for Harper's Conservatives.  And it is that math that makes the possibility of a Harper majority a very real possibility, especially in light the numbers coming out of seat rich Ontario.

Don't relax, don't sit back...VOTE VOTE VOTE.  Take your friends, ask everyone you know if they've voted.

Check back soon, I just heard on the radio that Sun TV is reporting some story about Jack Layton being found naked in a bawdy house in 1996, citing a now retired Toronto police officer.  Smells like desperation, and something else too. 

 

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Things Stephen Harper told us...

Stephen Harper talks a good game, I'll certainly give him that.  And the game he's talking now is about doom and gloom should Canadian voters decide to elect a sizable number of Jack Layton's NDP to our Parliament. 

Fair enough Mr. Prime Minister, but before Canadians take you at your word it might be useful to look back at other things you've told us and how they worked out....call it a liability check.

-Harper told Canadians we'd have a government that was more open and more accessible when he became Prime Minister.  Then he shut down parliament and closed our democracy...twice, hiding behind the Queen.

-Harper said a Conservative government would put an end to wasteful spending.  His government then gave Canadians a fake lake costing $2 million.

-Harper promised to get tough on crime.  Then the Harper government appointed Manitoba judge Robert Dewar who let a convicted rapist off with a suspended sentence and no jail time.

-Harper promised he would protect the nest eggs of senior citizens by imposing no new taxes on income trusts.  And then...you guessed right, he taxed them.

-Harper said his government would provide sound fiscal management and would not go into deficit.  Our PM then took an annual surplus of around $15 billion and handed us the biggest annual deficit in Canadian history, all in less than 5 years.

-Harper said he'd stop the practice of stuffing the Senate with patronage appointments....and then set the single day record for appointments to our red chamber.

Harper tells of lots of thing, too many of which turn out to be nothing more than hot air.  Now we're being told that electing a sizable number of Jack Layton's NDP members will spell disaster.  It will mean men marrying men, woman marrying woman and abortion no longer a criminal offence...Oops, things are already disastrous for Harper and many of his supporters.

Take anything Stephen Harper says with a massive grain of salt, especially during an election campaign.

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Advice to help Harper stem the Orange tide....

Jack Layton is cool, and Stephen Harper is...well, he's Stephen Harper. 

I'm fearful that if the Conservatives squeak out a narrow minority we might just see this headline in a couple of weeks: 

PM prorogues parliament permanently

How's that for alliteration?

Harper already suspended our democracy twice, its worked before it could work again.  In an effort to avoid that eventuality, and in the name of Canadian unity, I thought I'd put my political skills to the test in offering some advice to Dear Leader and his Conservative spin doctors.

Ten Suggestions to boost Harper's falling support:

10.  Start using a cane.

9.  Go get a prostrate exam.

8.  Grow a 'stache

7.  Promise to return the government to its rightful owners by switching back to Government of Canada from the Harper Government.

6.  Answer 5 questions instead of just 4 when on the stump....it'll show Canadians how flexible you are.

5.  If you're bald, be proud.

4.  Learn how to really smile, not the smug 'I know more than you' smirk. 

3.  Show you're human by saying sorry about blowing $2 million on the building of a fake lake.

2.  Before hitting your talking points say..."When I'm Prime Minister"' 

And finally, the number one suggestion for Harper to boost his falling support.....

Threaten to show up at a piano lounge near voters' homes if they don't elect the Conservative ccandidate. 

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A federal NDP government??? Let's get serious...

Okay kids, its been nice dreaming but let's get serious for a second here.  Recent polling is suggesting that the NDP may in fact have a chance of forming a government after the votes get counted on May 2nd. 

Have Canadians really thought things through on this?  I don't think so.  If the voters of this country were thinking clearly they'd realize what an unmitigated disaster a Jack Layton led government  would be.  C'mon now, you know I'm right.  Think about it, if Jack's NDP were to form the government what would we have to look forward to:

• Canadians would get stuck with a massive deficit, not like the errrr....okay, wait.

• The NDP would waste tax payer money on dumb make work projects, like building fake lakes....shit, gimme a second.

• Alright, I've got one.  Layton will raise taxes!!!  Okay, maybe not your's and mine but he'll raise taxes on corporations like our banks and oil companies and that would be like really bad because those guys are used to making lots and lots of money.

• Now I'm rolling...Instead of giving money away to big business, Layton will get all comfy cozy with lazy wage earners.  What kind of country will this be with Joe Lunchbucket and Sally Housecoat getting better treatment from their government than billion dollar business interests!!!

And if I haven't yet made a strong enough argument (and I do think I have) then consider this.  Layton represents change, and change is bad.  We need things to stay exactly as they are now, unmoving and completely still...like Stephen Harper's hair. 

Oh, that reminds me, Jack is like bald...really bald.  Tell him to get a piece, like a real leader. 

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10 Reasons for wanting Jack Layton as Prime Minister

Top ten lists seem to be all the rage, back on March 5th I posted an annotated list of 10 reasons to vote for Harper's Conservatives, (all very tongue in cheek) and its been viewed close to 1,000 times in less than two months. 

So with that in mind here are 10 reasons for wanting Jack Layton as Canada's next Prime Minister.

10.  Iggy's eyebrows are too big and Harper is getting fat.  Vote for Jack, he's skinny and doesn't have bushy eyebrows.

9.   When ignorant Americans visit Canada with zero knowledge about our country we'll be able to honestly tell them...You don't know Jack.

8.  The janitorial staff at 24 Sussex Drive, the one's who clean the bathrooms...they'll be able to tell their friends that they do in fact know Jack shit. 

7.  Jack is using a cane, Winston Churchill used a cane.  Walking sticks are cool, everyone will be wanting one. 

6.  Foreigners will have no idea what we're talking about when we say that our Prime Minister is a "Dipper". 

5.  With Jack as PM every month will be Movember.

4.  The Bare Naked Ladies endorsed Jack when he ran for the NDP leadership.  I'd love to see a NY Times headline that says:  "Canada's new leader makes bare naked ladies happy". 

3.  Jack Layton's wife is a hot younger Asian lady.  Come on guys, you know that is just like...so cool.

2.  Quebecers like him, and everyone knows the French have style.

And the number one reason Canadians should have for wanting Jack Layton as Canada's next Prime Minister....

It will mean Stephen Harper can get on with his next career as a piano playing lounge singer.







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Layton giving Canadians against Harper something to vote FOR

I don't want to come across all feng shui and zen like, because that's not what I'm about.  But at a core level I think many frustrated progressives realize that being against Harper isn't enough, you have to be for something.  Its the whole negative energy thing...but I digress. 

I share the frustration of the majority of Canadians who are fed up with Stephen Harper. 

Fed up with the lies, the deceit, the dirty politics, the wasteful spending, the cronyism, the arrogance and the utter disdain for basic Canadian democratic values.

But what is the alternative? 

That is a fair question, given the long history of the Liberal party under the likes of Pierre Trudeau and Jean Chrétien.  Conservatives are doing now what Liberals in this country have done for a long time, ignoring their own faults while hypocritically waving their arms about the faults of  'that other party'. 

Liberal and Conservative partisans, doesn't matter, the script is the same....

"You guys are bad"!!! 

"Oh  yeah, you guys are WAY WORSE". 

And the non-partisan Canadian electorate goes yawn.  

Into the abyss steps Jack Layton, and a significant portion of the electorate stands up and takes notice.  Removed from the sniping of the Liberals and Conservatives, voters can look at the NDP platform and find ideas worth supporting.

-Capping credit card interest rates at 5 points above prime.  With Canadian debt levels at an all time high its not hard to see why a proposal like this would find traction.

-A promise to hire more doctors at a time when so many Canadians are without a family physician.

-Reducing  taxes for small businesses to spur job creation.  Sure sounds better than giving billion dollar tax breaks to the big banks and oil companies when they're rolling in record profits.

Those are the big three from where I sit, and its not hard to understand why Canadians are suddenly warming to Jack Layton and filling up NDP rallies. 

The Liberals and Conservatives can go at each other all they want, tooth and nail...but with only about 1 week left for Tory and Grit mud slinging I'm thinking their arms must be getting tired.

And frankly, Canadians are sick of it.

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Canadians are coming home to the NDP

Put a group of Canadians together and ask them to define what it means to be Canadian.  It won't be long before the subject of health care comes up, or the Canada Pension Plan (CPP).  Canadians are justifiably proud of our social programs, proud that we judge our success as a nation on how we look after all of our citizens...not simply on the wealth generated by the most affluent.

The Canada Health  Act, CPP...both initiatives of the NDP. 

And now, in this election, the NDP is surging in the polls as Canadians come home to the NDP.  All across Canada people are seriously considering voting New Democrat, many for the first time.

It shouldn't come as a surprise, the NDP has long been the conscience of our democracy.  While most Canadians have traditionally  voted either Liberal or Conservative, I'd argue that many Canadians have always had a soft spot for Canada's third party.

In horse racing there's an old saw that goes: 

'When the odds are split between the favourites, bet on the long shot'. 

Well, they might have been long shots at the start of the campaign, but they're looking anything but now.

I've already voted, and I went with the Liberals based largely on strategic considerations given my riding.  But I have voted NDP in the past and even held party membership at one time.  With that being said I'm going to go channel my inner speech writer and suggest to Mr. Layton a theme he may want to drive home in the closing days of this election.

Come Home to the NDP

On May 2nd Canadians have a choice.  Canadian voters can go back to voting for Liberal and Conservative candidates.   Back to voting same old, same old, giving us governments that have brought scandal and distrust to our democracy. 

Or Canadians can take another road, and come home to the NDP.  Home to a party that stands up for Canada's most vulnerable citizens, home to a party that realizes Canada's strength and prosperity is not complete unless it is enjoyed by all.  Home to a party that isn't held hostage by corporate donations, a party that advances the issues of importance to hard working Canadians.  Sustainable health care, fair treatment for our seniors, interest rates on credit cards that are reasonable, not usurious. 

All across this country, from coast to coast to coast, fishery workers and loggers, in offices and on  factory floors, les anglophones et les francophones...Canadians in every region are realizing they have another choice, a different road, a better option.

Many Canadians will be voting for the NDP for the very first time.  Voting for the first time for a party that truly reflects their values, their hopes, their belief in what Canada is and in what Canada can become.  

Come home Canada, home to the New Democratic Party.   

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Canada's coporate media in love with...Jack Layton???

Jack Layton seems to be Canada's newest political rock star, at least that's the impression I get watching the likes of CTV news and reading our mostly Conservative press.

Am I the only person who finds this strange?

Business and organized labour do not exactly have the cosiest of relationships, which is understandable.  Corporations want to keep costs down and maximize profits, while unions seek to maximize the wages earned by their members, which negatively impacts a business's bottom line.  Employee earnings and benefits after all are typically the single largest expense a company has. 

You'd think Jack and the NDP would be public enemy number one for mainstream media outlets that rely on corporate advertising, to say nothing of their own battles with organized labour. 

But such is not the case of late, Jack can do no wrong.

But maybe there's a method to their madness.  If Stephen Harper's Conservatives poll  just 35% of the popular vote, then a strong NDP showing could help Tory candidates in tight 3 way races, and possibly hand Harper his coveted majority.  If the Liberals garner 30% in close ridings, the NDP 22 and the Greens 3 or 4 points...then the road to unfettered rule for Harper becomes that much easier.  Even 34 or 35% for a Conservative candidate would leave a comfortable margin of victory. 

On a personal level I would like to see a strong contingent of NDP members in Canada's next parliament.  But not if it comes along with 155 Conservative seats. 

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Young Canadians, our democracy needs you

I have an incredible father, one who has passed on many valuable lessons.  One of those lessons is that people like to be needed, that people like helping other people.  In work related situations when I've been in management positions, he often told me the most simple way to inspire people to roll up their sleeves is to ask a simple question:  "Can you help me out with this"?

Why do people like helping out?  Not for any altruistic reasons, but because of what it gives them.  Lending a hand, assisting others, it fills a person with a sense of pride and makes them feel wanted and needed.

Well, our democracy desperately needs a major injection of youthful optimism and energy.  Canada needs its young people to get involved. 

Young people typically have a sense of fairness and equity that older generations too often forget.  And in the coming campaign with all its smears and mud slinging, our democracy could do with the involvement of as many energetic and idealistic individuals as possible. 

And the old farts, its time they started making room for some fresh blood.  Being a passenger gets pretty old after a while, eventually its time to let junior slip behind the wheel and take control of the car.  Grandma and Grampa don't have to get out and walk, their input is still valuable, but trips to the clinic and pharmacy aren't the only things on the agenda.

When Jack Layton announced his candidacy for the leadership of the NDP he had a big party downtown with the Bare Naked Ladies providing a concert.  He walked through the crowd before taking the stage and I was able to shake his hand briefly.  I tried to give him some simple advice, toss the jacket and lose the tie before addressing the university aged crowed.  He didn't listen.  

Don't just ask for the votes of younger Canadians guys, get them involved in the entire process.  Youth knows how to speak to youth.  Talk to newer voters in the language of the old and grey haired and they'll likely pass out. 

Don't believe me?


Props to WMTC for reminding me of this video.



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Note to the Liberals and NDP, give it a rest

Hypocrites calling hypocrites hypocrites, while the governing hypocrites sit back and smile. That, in a nutshell, is Ottawa these days.

Its all been said before, I'm just adding a little kindling to the fire.

The Liberals propped up Stephen Harper's for months, while the NDP chided them about forming a coalition with the governing Tories. Now the Liberals have withdrawn their support and are pointing fingers at the NDP for doing what they were doing for more than two years. Harper rails against alliances with socialists and separatists, conveniently forgetting his own wheeling and dealing with the same parties just a couple of years back.

Give it a rest guys, Canadians aren't stupid. We know this is all gamesmenship, so tone down the rhetoric and ease up on the hyperbole.

Here's a newsflash for Misters Ignatieff and Layton, polling still indicates that a majority of Canadians oppose the Harper government. With that being said, even with just 35% or so support of decided voters...that makes Stephen Harper king of the castle. All Mike and Jack are doing is pushing each other down the mountain, leaving the Conservatives relatively comfortable.

Jack and Mike don't have to work together, all they have to do is focus their attacks accross the aisle instead of on each other. We'll have an election when time and circumstance place the opposition parties on the same page, or when Stephen Harper decides to pull the plug himself...and not before.

Waiting things out a little longer may prove wise, given that cracks are already showing in our fragile economic recovery. A short lived spike borne of cheap interest rates, cash for clunkers and home rennovation tax credits is already losing steam. Take Harper and his cronies to task over their many failings, and leave each other alone.

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Harper's Conservatives - The vast left wing conspiracy trumps incompetence

Leaders of Canada's opposition Liberal, NDP, Green and Bloc parties have a monumental task ahead of them in unseating the Harper Conservatives from the seat of power in Ottawa. Monday's Globe and Mail reports that polling indicates the Tories have opened up a 5 point lead nationally on the second place Liberals. The Strategic Counsel poll pegs the Conservatives at 35% and the Liberals at 30, with the NDP and Greens at 14 and 9 respectively.

Stephen Harper has assumed the mantle of Canada's Teflon man, nothing sticks. In his first mandate the Prime Minister broke his promise to "never, NEVER" tax income trusts, still Canadians returned the Tories with an increased minority. In calling an early election last October Harper may have even broken his own law respecting fixed election dates. A judge will now decide if that election call was illegal instead of just politically self serving.

Despite such a short tenure as Canada's ruling party, the Conservatives have done plenty to raise the ire of the voting public. Promises of balanced budgets have joined the tax exempt status of Income Trusts on the trash heap. Jim Flaherty's laughingly inept budget projections should definitely give Canadians cause for concern about the running of the nation's finances.

Add to that Lisa's Raitt's salivating at the 'sexiness' of cancer patients having treatment delayed, the boondoggle of funding for GLBT events in Toronto and Montreal, Harper breaking his promise not to engage in patronage politics to become the all time patronage champion with Senate appointments...its a long list for a party with so little time in power.

And yet despite financial mismanagement and scandal after scandal....Harper's Conservatives continue to lead in the polls. Why?

Simple, Harper's socially conservative base in convinced that there has long been a conspiracy afoot to rob Canadians of certain God given rights. There is a pervasive belief that a "Liberal Elite" is bent on ramming through an agenda that extols the 'dubious' (sic) virtues of things like multiculturalism and equality of the sexes.

The challenge for the likes of Ignatieff, Layton and May is to energize the roughly ten million Canadians who didn't bother voting last time around. Shaking the Conservative tree in hopes of diminishing Harper's core base will yield slim pickings at best. Stephen Harper can run the economy into the ground, break almost every election promise and prove himself the epitome of hypocrisy...and it won't matter to roughly 25% of Canadian voters.

I do believe the Liberals are off to a decent start with their chosen theme of "We Can Do Better". But its going to take more than a catchy slogan to reverse Mr. Ignatieff's fortunes and propel him to 24 Sussex Drive.

The fact that the Liberals are finally willing to state their intention of fighting an election at a time when their polling numbers are less than robust nullifies any appearance that their strategy is opportunistic. When Harper broke his own fixed election law last summer in an attempt to garner a majority mandate, that was political opportunism at its most blatant.

Canadians do deserve better government than what we've been getting recently, but Harper's socially Conservative base will be doing its best to blur reality. Its Machiavellism at its best and worst, Harper is their lesser evil.

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NDP will prop up the Tories - And I'll be dating Maria Sharapova

Now that Michael Ignatieff has finally decided to withdraw support for Stephen Harper's minority government it looks like we'll be headed to the polls this fall...or maybe not. The NDP is entertaining the notion of propping up the Tories provided Harper's crew is willing to address some issues near and dear to Canada's labour party. Two specifically mentioned are pension protection and bank fees.

I'm sure I'm not alone in thinking any possibility of the Conservatives agreeing to NDP demands is pretty much dead in the water. Of course anything is possible, maybe I'll wake up in bed tomorrow next to a Russian tennis star...one can only dream.

I'm certain that Harper would much rather be in control of his own fate, so I won't be surprised in the least if he asks the Governor General to dissolve parliament and call an election even sooner.

I'm in the minority in wanting an election, whether its a vote of non confidence or Harper pulling the plug, I don't care. Stephen could even try to curry the favour of the separatist Bloc, but that is likely too fraught with the potential for backlash amongst his base to warrant serious consideration.

So its an election or a dance between the Conservative right and the NDP left. If Jack can get Stephen to play ball though...Maybe my dream can come true?

How would you like your eggs cooked Maria?

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Canada's Democratic Party? Is it still labour?

News that Canada's NDP is considering dropping the "New" from their name has been out for a while, and its something I've been mulling over. While a name may be just a name, it strikes me that dropping the 'New' is a splendid idea. Branding is very much in vogue, having branched out from products to buildings to people...and now to politics. To those who might think branding is unimportant, recall how quickly the new Conservatives dropped the name Canadian Reform Alliance Party, or CRAP for short.

I don't think there's anything inherently wrong with the moniker NDP, but Canada's Democratic Party has more resonance. It may just help them expand their tent and attract more voters, particularly if it comes in tandem with stated initiatives to develop progressive policies while engaging both young and minority voters. During their upcoming national convention the NDP should also be looking at better communicating their message using social media.

The great unknown is whether or not they'll be able to expand their support beyond their usual union base...new name or not. There are many Canadians who are uncomfortable identifying themselves with a labour party. Its ironic given that the overwhelming majority of Canadians aren't in fact capitalists.

What??? Not capitalists??? Of course we're capitalists!!!

No you're not, excepting perhaps 5-10% of the total population. Capitalists use their money to make money. Capitalists put their financial resources to work to earn a living and increase their net worth.

The remaining 90-95% of us are labourers, taking whatever skills we have have into the marketplace and exchanging work for capital. It doesn't matter whether the skill is accounting or brick laying, baby sitting or working in a bank. If you're livelihood depends on a pay cheque, then you're a labourer.

Those who see themselves as professionals often have trouble with this simple distinction. Whether it be through education or special training, many like to see themselves as being a level above "labour". In point of fact some are to a marginal degree, endeavouring to make investments that will augment their income. But if one's investments aren't sufficient to supply enough capital to live on in an on going fashion...then they're labourers and not capitalists in the purest sense.

And therein is the greatest challenge for Jack Layton and Canada's Democrats - they really should adopt the new name, it sounds so much better - to attract Canada's middle and upper middle class. Those people selling their wage labour in the market, but getting more money in the exchange.

Its a difficult row to hoe right now, given the level of resentment many Canadians have for the union movement. But it is one that can be navigated I believe. Obama managed to keep unions on side in the United States, while still attracting significant numbers of more affluent labourers who don't see the need for collective bargaining.

Democrats in the US, Democrats in Canada....they wouldn't be the same, but the Canadian version could take some cues from our southern neighbours.

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Layton sneaking up...but he needs to stay clean

Ever bet the ponies? If you have then you may be familiar with this old saw..."when the odds are split between the favourites, bet on the long shot". Monday's National Post is reporting that polling numbers indicate that the Liberals and Conservatives are in a virtual dead heat, with 33.8% and 31.3% national support respectively. The NDP, or "The Democrats" come in a distant third at 18.7%, but are up almost 2 full points while the Liberal and Conservative numbers slide.

The biggest concern for Canadians remains the economy, with 33.8% rating it number one, but that number is down 5.4% from June. It seems the message that the recession will soon be over is finding some resonance, recent job loss numbers notwithstanding.

So will we have a fall election or won't we? And if we do...what can we expect to result from a trip to the polls?

Given the weakness in the economy I still consider an election sooner rather than later to be a safe bet. Going strictly by the numbers a Liberal or Conservative minority would seem the most likely outcome. I would give the Tories a slight edge based on superior organization and deeper pockets, though as I said...that's going 'strictly by the numbers'.

But polling numbers don't tell the full story. The next election is going to be nasty, the Liberals under Michael Ignatieff have gained some strength. Their financial position has improved significantly, which should enable them to better withstand the barrage of a Conservative attack, while firing off some salvos of their own. How will Canadians react to the leaders of our two main parties slugging it out, doing all they can to make the other appear incompetent and dangerous?

Which brings me back to the Democrats under Jack Layton.

If Mr. Layton can craft a message that speaks to Canadians, one that addresses the challenges facing this country, without resorting to partisan mud slinging...he and his party could be the big winners. I'm not suggesting the NDP will form the next government, but I can envision a tight 3 way race.

Whose vote are the leaders of our three main parties going to be fighting over? While not intending to sound egotistical, its mine...the undecided. I've voted Conservative, Liberal and NDP over the years, and I still haven't made up my mind about the coming election. I haven't completely written off Elizabeth May and the Green Party, but it'll take a lot to sway my vote in that direction.

Expect to see the rhetoric ratcheted up in the coming weeks, with the Conservative and Liberals sharpening their attacks on each other. In my opinion it will serve Monsieur Layton and the NDP well if they can stay mostly out of the fray, letting the two heavy weights bloody each other's noses. Jack has always struck me as more than a bit of a Beau Brummel, and blood stains wouldn't look good on the nattily attired leader of Canada's labour party.

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Harper a Twitter heavy hitter but Facebook more Jiggy with Iggy

Barrack Obama's winning presidential campaign demonstrated the potential for the Internet and social networking sites to connect with the electorate, bypassing more traditional media and delivering the candidate's message directly to voters. Obama had more than one million fans on facebook and an equal number following his tweets on twitter.

I thought I'd check on the status of Canada's federal leaders to see how they're stacking up to one another. But with sincere apologies to Messieurs Layton and Ducette as well as to Elizabeth May, the real heavyweights are Ignatieff and Harper.

On Twitter Stephen Harper is far ahead of his rivals with over 16,000 followers. Micheal Ignatieff lags well behind with just under 10,000. Both have alternate names for tweeting in French, with Harper's having just over 500 followers and Iggy at 178. Jack Layton isn't doing too bad comparatively speaking at over 8,600, Gilles Duceppe is just shy of 2,000 (he only tweets en Francais) and Elizabeth May has almost 4,400.

It strikes me that those numbers are actually pretty reflective of the make up of our current parliament...Green leader 'Liz May's numbers notwithstanding.

Facebook, on the other hand, provides a different picture. All the party leaders have fan or supporter pages, like followers on twitter, but on Facebook its Jack Layton with a slim advantage over Harper's 27,300 supporters. The NDP leader's numbers come in slightly higher at just over 27,800. Both are well out in front of Iggy who has a bit more than 15,300. Elizabeth May has just over 6,000, while Gilles Duceppe comes it at about 3,700.

Obviously Iggy, with the least amount of time in at the helm of his party, has a bit of catching up to do in the facebook world. But where you see a real divergence is in the Groups spawned by Ignatieff as compared to those about Harper.

Facebook shows 117 groups listed for Michael Ignatieff, and while there are a few of the requisite "Michael Ignatieff Sucks" variety, the overwhelming majority are supportive. He has a group support pages for individual provinces: BC, NS, Saskatchewan, Quebec...even my own Durham Region has a support page with 65 members.

The Prime Minister by contrast has over 500 groups listed in a search of his name...with many of them strongly Anti-Harper in tone. Canadians United Against Stephen Harper has over 21,000 members, and Stephen Harper Sucks rings in at 328. There's a group of 186 that want Mr. Harper arrested, and another group of 50 highlighting the Calgary MP's lies.

Screw Stephen Harper, Stop Stephen Harper, People Against Stephen Harper...even Stephen Harper Eats Babies.

The degree of animosity generated toward Stephen Harper is off the charts compared to any of the other leaders. Jack Layton has 259 groups, almost all supportive. And the Bloc's Giles Duceppe has 44. A search of Elizabeth May forced me to add the word Green because her name is so common, it came up with 82...again mostly supportive. There is a group entitled 'Elizabeth May has got to go', but it only has 1 member.

What does all this mean? Not much really, its probably as significant as a pocketed communion wafer. The real fun will start when the next election writ is dropped.

They all blow my twitter numbers away, canukgord is followed by a paltry 33 users, and there are no fan or supporter pages for this blogger. But if anyone wants to start a 'Gordie Canuk Sucks' page on Facebook I wouldn't be upset, that's when I'll know I've truly arrived. But please no groups saying I eat babies, that would hurt.

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