Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Young partiers could be said to be following expert medical advice....

Eighteen of Canada's leading medical authorites recently signed an open letter to Canada's political leadership, both at the national and provincial levels.  Among the eighteen is Dr. David Butler-Jones, Canada's first Chief Public Health Officer, someone with an actual medical degree.  

There is a letter portion and also a statement.  The letter portion contains these thoughts:


The Statement portion includes this:


It seems many young people have gotten the message about getting on with their lives.  Many are getting back to doing what countless generations have done in summers past, they're getting together and having a good time.  

This doesn't sit well with Doug Ford, which is something I find incredibly ironic given the Premier's own history when he was a young man in Etobicoke. Anyone unfamiliar with the Premier's colourful history is welcome to read about it in an excellent Globe & Mail exposé.  It should be noted that Doug Ford threatened to sue the Globe for false reporting, but never followed up on the threat.  


Someone like Doug Ford, with a history of ignorning the rules, now telling young people not to do what young people have done for ages, oh puh-lease.   And I'm not talking about dealing illegal drugs here, just about getting together and having a good time...maybe even passing the dutchie now that it's allowed.  

The sobering part of the advice being offered by leading experts in the medical field is in the words "true level of risk".  

While much has been said about trying to keep everyone from getting infected with SARS-Cov-2, the fact is well known to most that certain individuals are at far greater risk than others.  People with a host of conditions including diabetes, cardiovascular and kidney diseases, basically any conditions affecting the lung and/or heart are at much greater risk of Covid-19 being serious and potentially fatal.  There are other statiscially significant contributing factors like Vitamin D deficiency, having a blood Type of A, obesity and autoimmune disorders such as Lupus.

I hope the young people gathering are aware of the factors that can make Covid serious and potentially deadly.  And that they're staying home if they themself are at risk, and staying away from others for whom Covid is potentially lethal.  I'm not naive though, expecting there to be no mistakes would be like expecting people to wear cloth masks properly without touching the outside material....

The bottom line being that Covid-19 is not an equal opportunity disease, it is not the major health risk for younger healthy people that it is for those who are older or with compromised health, put the two together and the risk is even greater.

I've been equating our ridiculous response to one of the Toronto Island ferries sinking with 100 passengers on board, but only 10 flotation devices.  The way we're dealing with Covid now is akin to cutting each of the flotation devices into 10 separate pieces and giving each ferry passenger their little useless chunk.  Obviously the smarter course of action would be to identify those unable to swim and to give them the whole flotation device and to not give them to those who are strong swimmers.  

Of course smart and public policy are something of an oxymoron a lot of the time, and now is a prime example.  







Sunday, July 19, 2020

Ontario moving into the personal responsibility stage....finally

As of  Friday July 17th many parts of Ontario moved into Phase 3 of re-opening. Geographically it is most of the province, however with the GTA as well as the Windsor and Niagara Regions not included most of the provinces population is still in Phase 2.  

All I can say is FINALLY!!!  

In my, (not always so) humble opinion this should have happened long ago, like at the start of June.  But as is often said, better late than never.  The author of this miserable and pathetic little blog is fortunate to be living in a Phase 3 area, which means I can now dine in at a restaraunt or go inside a bar to hoist a pint and numerous other activities, if I so choose.  And therein lies the most important part, choice.  I guess you could say that I'm a Pro-Choice kind of guy.

As everyone knows, the reason emergency measures were brought in was in order to "flatten the curve" and to save our health care system from being overwhelmed.  That never happened, Ontario is a province of ~14.5 million without about 500 hospitals across the health care network.  Back on June 1 there were less than 800 Covid patients being treated in all of Ontario Hospitals, and only 118 patients in ICUs with 90 of them on ventilators.  

Ontario never came close to the nightmare "best case" scenario Ontario Premier Doug Ford told us was forecast by the computer modelled simulations he was given to base decisions on.  Ontario was supposed to be looking at 1,300 patients in ICU critical care beds, and again that was if we did really well with social distancing and all the rest.  In other words if thousands of tickets weren't handed out to people for things like get togethers and back yard parties, if "yahoos" didn't protest lockdown measures at Queen's Park, if there weren't massive 10,000 person gatherings at a park like Trinity Bellwood, and no large BLM demonstrations.  All these activities were supposed to make it even worse.  Yet even with all those supposedly horrendous acts we never even got close to the forecasted numbers.

So now we're finally moving into what I'm calling the personal responsibility stage.  Businesses that had to sit back and watch the Wal-Marts, and Amazons of the world remain open despite outbreaks in their locations, now finally have a chance to try and stave of bankruptcy.  Sadly for many it's already too late, they've shuttered their doors and will never re-open.  

Maybe they could have stayed open and done a better job of preventing outbreaks than all the supposedly essential workplaces that were allowed to stay open regardless.  That is now a moot point of course, those businesses that have managed to survive despite forced closure can now at least try to salvage something including people's livelihoods.

To those who are losing their minds, terrified that Ontario will turn into disaster areas like New York and New Jersey which lead the U.S. in Covid deaths on a per capita basis....relax.  You do not have to patronize any business unless you want to.  If you don't think indoor restaraunt dining should be allowed, then don't go, it's not rocket science.  And the same goes for bars, gyms, movie theatres or anything else.  

I do  expect we're going to see case numbers and hospitalization numbers climb, perhaps as high as they were back at the start of June.  But that isn't that high in a province of Ontario's size with the number of hosptials we have.  Let's face it, SARS-Cov-2 is going to be with us for a long time yet, we can't stay hunkered down for years hoping on a vaccine that ultimately may never come.  And even if a vaccine is developed it is very possible it could be no more effective than the seasonal flu shot.  Even with a vaccine 8,511 Canadians are reported to have died of influenza in 2018 as per StatsCan, the #6 leading cause of death that year.

It strikes me that reasoned thinking is finally starting to gain some traction in spite of all the fear and panic.  Eighteen esteemed medical experts, including Canada's first Chief Public Health Officer (this one with an actual medical degree) have signed a joint letter speaking to what I have been advocating since the start, that Canada as a whole needs to start managing Covid instead of trying to eliminate it.  Micromanaging human behaviour in an effort to stamp out a virus has always been an exercise akin to herding cats.  

I know some will ignore the letter, but for those who are still capable of critical thinking here's the link:  






Wednesday, July 15, 2020

Will a second wave cause another panic?

Before I get rolling with this post I want to provide some persepctive.  Putting a situation in its proper context is not covering up the truth, it is the truth.  These are the top 10 causes of death as per Statistics Canada for the year 2018, the most recent year for which numbers are available:
  1. Cancer - 79,536 deaths
  2. Heart Disease - 53,134
  3. Stroke - 13,480
  4. Unintentionl Accidents - 13,290
  5. Chronic lower respitory diseases - 12,998
  6. Influenza and Pneumonia - 8,511
  7. Diabetes - 6,794
  8. Alzheimers - 6,429
  9. Self Harm Suicide - 3,811
  10. Kidney related disease - 3,615

Over 287,000 Canadians died in 2018, in 2017 the number was over 282,000 and in 2016 over 274,000 people died.  Without going into detailed statistical analysis I think it's fairly safe to say that over 290,000 people were likely to die in Canada during the year 2020 before the pandemic.

That's a lot of death, but it is something Canadians have accepted year after year.  Could we do something to mitigate this loss of human life?  Certainly, banning smoking would undoubtedly reduce numbers 1 and 2 and likely impact number 5.  Banning the sale of deep fried food and putting a strong focus on healthy living and exercise would likely reduce many of the other categories as well.  

But we've never even seriously discussed banning smoking in this country.  Canadians have always accepted the fact that people die.  Even if some deaths could be prevented, nothing much has ever been done about it.  We certainly never turned our entire world upside down.  Until Covid-19 came along of course, a disease that has claimed the lives of almost 8,800 Canadians so far and climbing, putting it just ahead of deaths from flu/inluenza in 2018.  

Did SARS-Cov-2 cause most to panic?  In my opinion, unquestionably.  And for many the panic has never ceased.  

Tossing millions of Canadians out of work, cancelling life saving procedures like cardiac surgery and cancer screenings, shuttering schools forcing young children to isolate at home with out of work anxious parents, all while declaring the sale of booze essential.  I don't think you need a PHD in the social sciences to know that this is a recipe for a tsunami of health problems, especially when so many support networks were also shut down. 

I have to wonder how Covid is going to affect the numbers when it comes to death from other causes for 2020.  Given that so many of the top 10 causes of death in this country are listed as contributing factors to Covid being serious and potentially fatal, I will not be surprised if deaths from: cancer, heart disease, strokes, lower respitory illness, flu/pneumonia, diabetes, alzheimers and kidney dieseas dips lower for 2020.  Toronto's health department has publicly declared that a heart disease patient who dies after a heart attack is listed as a Covid death if there's a positive test for SARS-Cov-2.   

With around 80% of our deaths coming from Long Term Care Type facilities it makes sense that death from other diseases/conditions will likely drop when you consider the health of people in these nursing home establishments.  Ontario's Long Term Care Association provides a snapshot of the overall health of residents from the year 2019 and it is not a pretty picture.  




I can't say I really blame people for being hyper concerned about Covid, even more than we worry about death from accidents despite accidents killing far more Canadians than Covid has.  We'd need over 4,000 more Covid deaths to reach a year's worth of accidental deaths in this country.  And who knows, maybe Covid will prove to be as deadly as accidents typically are in any given year.  

The reason I don't blame people is because we've never seen this kind of laser like focus from government and media on one disease ever before.  Imagine if every news broadcast led off with a report of over 200 people dying of cancer, and another 150 dying of heart disease in one single day.  A lot of Canadians would probably be scared into pursuing healthier lifestyles.

I know I am farting into a hurricane here.  It reminds me very much of the Iraq war when so many of my friends and acquaintances were all in on the need to eliminate Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction: "Are you an intelligence expert?  I'm smart and listen to what they say".  I wasn't, I joined the small minority of people outside the U.S. consulate in Toronto and protested.  And lest you think Canada didn't support that war, do some reading about the number of Canadian military personnel who were sent over to assist.  

Death sucks, everyone is against it.  But someone dying of Covid-19 is not more dead than someone who is killed in a car accident, or from conditions like cancer or heart disease or anything else.  The emergency measures employed have enormous health consequences as well.  Just because the news isn't giving a daily suicide report doesn't mean it isn't happening.  If you know someone in law enforcement ask them what they're seeing.  

Some are losing their minds at the prospect of schools opening back up in September, but these same regrettable virtue signallers have never said a word about shutting down Amazon fulfillment centres, Wal-Marts and grocery stores, or about having hydro workers and ISP techincians stay home instead of maintaining the grid and internet connectivity.  So long as "THEIR" needs are being met to heck with young children, just suck it up little ones.  

Bottom line is that we are the government, we are not ruled...people are the rulers in a democratic society.  And for now we've abdicated that role, scared into submission by one branch of science, elected politicians and their media moutpieces.  Epidemiolgits and infectious disease experts don't study the causes of depression and suicide, they're not schooled in the horrors of spousal and child abuse, they have ideas and theories about how to slow the spread of a virus, not about the impact of cancelling life saving hosptial procedures like bypass surgery.  

Canada needs Captain Kirk at the helm, not Dr. Mckoy.  Those who like living in the kind of country Canada is turning into should pack up and move to China or North Korea, they would feel right at home.  






Thursday, July 9, 2020

Will mandatory masking rules cause outbreaks? We shall see....

A tool is only as good as the person using it, use a tool improperly and you can often make things worse.  

I'm lucky to live in Northumberland County Ontario, where the number of active SARS-Cov-2 cases is zero.  While it would be nice to think that the people here are so much better than other locales at social distancing and all the rest, I think there are other more important factors.  The biggest factor in my opinion is likely population density, or rather the lack of density.  This is a country area by and large with a lot of farms.  We are spread out..  Social distancing is easier here than in the GTA where people live on top of one another.  

And masks are not popular here judging by the number of people actually wearing them.  My own observations put the wearing of face coverings at places like the grocery stores, pharmacies and take out restaraunts at no more than 25%.  I've asked friends and neighbours and some don't even think it's that high, and nobody thinks it's more than a third.

Regardless of the lack of mandatory masking we've done well obviously.  Zero active cases and only 21 identified cases in total since the start of the pandemic, all resolved and zero deaths.  Diligence, geography, luck, or a combination of all three.....whatever.  

Starting this coming Monday mask wearing will be mandatory in indoor public places.  We shall see if the numbers stay at or near zero going forward.  I'm thinking there's a good chance we're going to start to see outbreaks identified within about 10 days of masks being mandatory, and the reason goes back to the opening sentence, about tools only being as good as the people using them.  

Masks are a tool, used properly I do believe they can help, the problem is a lot of the people I see wearing these mask tools, they do not use them properly.  Up til now that hasn't been a big problem because 70% or more of people out in shops and such aren't using them and you can't misuse a tool that's sitting in the box.  

A big reason I believe we're at zero active cases in my area is that we're protecting the vulnerable, the elderly and/or those with compromised health conditions.  Most of the credit goes to the vulnerable people themselves in my view, they're being careful.  Someone who is 70+ years of age who is both diabetic and suffering from cardiovascular disease (sadly a very common combination) likely looks at the grocery stores and Wal-Marts and sees all the people going in and out unmasked and decides to stay home, getting someone else to do the shopping or ordering on-line.

Now though, at least as of this coming Monday, we'll be seeing the vast majority covered up and this vulnerable person may just say:  "Finally, it's safe for me to go shopping"!!!  It's human nature, people don't like being cooped up.  And I know a lot of older people (whether healthy or not) who like to get out and fill the cart, browse the aisles at Wal-Mart or Canadian Tire.  I enjoy it myself at times, finding a T-Bone on sale can be a major event in my day.

But is it really safe?  This is where I see problems on the horizon.  

I see too many people now engaging in masking behaviours that epidemiolgists and infectous disease experts tell us is dangerous and counter productive.  And these are the people wearing masks voluntarily.  Just wait until all those who never wanted to wear a mask are forced to.

What am I seeing?  

People pulling masks out of dirty pockets as they step out of their cars to get in line.  Once in the store I see them tugging on and adjusting their masks, touching the outside material which is not supposed to be done.  If you touch the outside part of the mask we're supposed to engage immediately in proper hand hygeine.  I've never seen anyone pull out some sanitizer after touching their mask.  

I saw a lady pull down her mask to read an expiry tag and then return the product to the shelf.  All this mask touching followed by touching of products, scales, door handles, shelves, payment keypads.  Touch touch touch.  I've even seen someone reach under their mask to lick their fingers when trying to open one of those annoying plastic produce bags.  

It is simply my non-expert opinion that all this mask touching followed by touching of so many common places....that we're looking at huge potential for viral spread.  Add in the possibility that vulnerable people may be more likely to be out and about in shops due to a seeming "mask generated" sense of security and...... breakout city I'm fearing.

I do of course hope and pray that I'm wrong.  I hope the numbers of identified cases stays at or near zero.  If that happens I will happily admit that I was wrong.  On the other hand, if we start seeing outbreaks 10 or so days after Monday when masks become mandatory, then it'll be pretty damned obvious the reason why.  Not that I expect mask promoters to admit it, Karens never admit it when they're wrong.  




Wednesday, July 8, 2020

Will masking be mandatory whenever stepping outside soon?

It happened, my little corner of Ontario has brought in mandatory masking rules for indoor public spaces, much to the delight of a small but vocal minority.   

Based on my observations while out shopping few people have been wearing masks while at pharmacies and grocery stores from what I have seen.  Well less than half certainly, and not one employee at the No Frills where I get my weekly groceries.  

I live in Northumberland County which has reported a total of 21 confirmed cases since the start of the pandemic with all being resolved according to news of Monday July 6th.  Zero deaths so far thankfully.


The new rule starts Monday June 13th, everyone entering places like groceries, pharmacies, convenience stores or restaurants will be required to wear a non medical mask or face covering.  Personally I'm going to try and buy one of those plastic face shields.  

What will be interesting to see is if the number of identified cases stays low, or if the numbers start to climb now that masks are required.  I've seen some regrettable behaviour by people wearing masks lately.  Just this past Sunday I saw a person pull their mask down in order to read the expiry tag on a loaf of bread (they were wearing glasses) and then return the  loaf back to the shelf.  

Beyond that obvious and counterproductive faux pas I often see people touching the outside of their masks, pulling, tugging and adjusting.  I do think there is potential for masks to increase viral spread. 

Beyond proper handling there's also the issue of complacency.  As the statistics demonstrate, Covid-19 is a particularly serious and potentially fatal disease for a very specific demographic group, the elderly and health compromised.   My fear is that vulnerable people will now think, because everyone is wearing masks indoors, that it's safe to be out and about.  A long passed Grandfather of mine used to relish in spending the day shopping and going to the mall.  

And if cases do spike now that masking is pretty much mandatory everywhere, then rather than pulling back I'm afraid governments are going to make it mandatory even for something as simple as taking a stroll around the block.  

And given the way people don't mind constant intrusions with more and more regulations, believing that it's somehow keeping them safe, I'm afraid the vast majority will just nod and say okay.  And that within another year or two Canada won't be much different from China.  




Saturday, July 4, 2020

Wearing a cloth mask? Don't be a Covidiot, do it right - Most do it wrong

I am seeing a lot of bad advice being given out by Covidiots of late, suggesting that all people need to do is simply put on a mask when entering a store and then to take it off when leaving.  Simple minds like simple solutions, but as with many things in life there is a lot more to it. 

With places like Ottawa now moving to requiring the wearing of cloth masks indoors it is vital that people know how to properly wear, remove and clean their masks.  If people wish to keep both themselves as well as family and household members safe then this information is vital.  

Unfortunatlely it's also complicated, but then science is rarely easy.  Pathogens are both ubquitous and dangerous, especially with the emergence of drug resistant bacterial.  A University of Toronto professor and epidemiologist was recently quoted in a CBC news story as saying he boils his masks after 2 hours of use, and there is good reason for that.

It is simple common sense that placing a cloth mask over your mouth and nose is going to result in the material becoming warm and moist, making it a perfect breeding ground for bacteria.  A respitory infection resulting from inproperly using/cleaning a cloth mask could be worse than Covid for some people.  

I myself have not yet worn a mask when shopping, I've had some training in the use of PPE and I've always known it's not as simple as the Covidiots are suggesting.  I see them at the grocery store every week, they pull a cloth mask out of a pocket when going in.  In the store they're tugging and pulling at it, often it doesn't even cover the nose, some pull them down when talking.  And then when they step outside again the mask is removed, scrunched up and put back into a pocket.  

Here are the procedures being put out by the World Health Orginization.  Based on my own observations it seems to me the overwhelming majority of people wearing masks are the real Covidiots, putting themselves and their family members at potential risk.  


  • Remove the mask without touching the front of the mask, do not touch the eyes or mouth after mask removal. Either discard the mask or place it in a sealable bag where it is kept until it can be washed and cleaned. Perform hand hygiene immediately afterwards.
  • Non-medical masks should be washed frequently and handled carefully, so as not to contaminate other items.
  • Clothing fabrics used to make masks should be checked for the highest permitted washing temperature. If instructions for washing are indicated on the clothing label, verify if washing in warm or hot water is tolerated. Select washable fabrics that can be washed. Wash in warm hot water, 60°C, with soap or laundry detergent. Non-woven polypropylene (PP) spunbond may be washed at high temperatures, up to 125°C.(72)
  • Natural fibres may resist high temperature washes and ironing. Wash the mask delicately (without too much friction, stretching or wringing) if nonwoven materials (e.g. spunbond) are used. The combination of non-woven PP spunbond and cotton can tolerate high temperatures; masks made of these combinations may be steamed or boiled. 
  • Where hot water is not available, wash mask with soap/detergent at room temperature water, followed by either i) boiling mask for one minute OR ii) soak mask in 0.1% chlorine for one minute then thoroughly rinse mask with room temperature water, to avoid any toxic residual of chlorine. 


I imagine most people don't know what type of material their mask is made of, or the maximum temperature it can be washed at.  And I highly doubt people are either boiling their masks or using chorine when hot water isn't available.  I've seen suggestions to not wear one while driving, but where are you going to wash you hands after stepping outside of the grocery store?  It is so easy to inadvertenly rub or wipe one's eyes, nose or mouth, it's a reflex action people do multiple times a day without even being aware of it.  

Anyway, if you're going to wear a mask or are forced to, then try not to be a Covidiot, keep yourself and the people around you safe.  

Wednesday, July 1, 2020

Mandatory masking, this is going to be a mess.....

My own views on the utility of cloth masks in the Covid era notwithstanding, it looks like they're  going to be required in many if not all indoor public places soon.  Judging from social media I am in the decided minority in questioning their efficacy and safety, but in the majority when I go shopping.  

The pro-mask camp is loud and brash on-line.  Not only do they wear masks, they think everyone should be forced to put one on as well.  When I'm  out shopping though the majority of people don't wear them, and in the grocery store where I shop I see zero staff with one on.

I see all kinds of trouble on the horizon, but it's already started in Kingston Ontario with Ottawa and Toronto warming up.  I will not be surprised if it's mandated for the entire province or even country before July rolls into August.  

First things first, there are lots of people who are not reccomended to wear a mask.  

If you have a respitory condition like asthma or COPD, then wearing a mask could pose a health risk.  Then there are the deaf who rely on facial expression when signing, and people with autism.  Asthma is said to affect  almost 4 million Canadians, COPD about 500,000, there's about 340,000 deaf people in this country and autism comes in around 250,00

All told that's around 5 million Candians or better than 10% of the population.  There are also mental health conditions where masking could cause anxiety and panic attacks.   

Are by-law enforcement officers now going to be demanding proof of an illness or condition for someone not wearing a mask in their local Sobey's?  Are advocacy groups going to pop up claiming that people are being profiled?  Is SWA (shopping while asthmatic) going to become the new acronym of the radical left?

Are we going to see confrontations like this one involving a man with a Doctor's note for his medical condition?  


Will scenes like the following happen in Canada with self righteous mask wearing Karens going full SJW on someone shopping without a mask?

  

Well, I have little doubt the rules are coming regardless, so it is best if people are at least informed about how to use a cloth mask safely because there is potential for harm.  A recent CBC article contained a number of points espoused by New Brunswick's Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Jennifer Russel and Dr. Colin Furness an infection control epidemiolgist about the dangers.


The article notes that cloth masks can create a sense of false security, and that they're not a panacea or a replacement for the more common measures like hand washing and keeping two or more metres of distance.  And Dr. Furness says he only wears one for no more than two hours at a time (an arbritary number) because of studies indicating that four hours or more is too long.

Even more troubling is the assertion that cloth masks can collect bacteria and other viruses.  For some people drug resistant bacteria could be worse than getting Covid.  Hence why Dr. Furness boils his masks after each use.  I wonder how many people are actually doing that?   

Bottom line for me is that I don't see this going well.  A big part of the reason is that I don't think many people really know what they're talking about, they've simply read an article quoting some expert saying that having the public wear cloth masks might help and they're now convinced they're experts on infectious disease and know everything about the science.  

I don't have a high opinion of a large segment of the Canadian population, there are too many idiots out there who think they know everything, not jusf for themselves but for everyone else.  I see them wearing masks, not just in the store but walking down the street when nobody is within 100 feet of them, and in their cars.  Tugging and adjusting, or completely exposing their mouth and nose to either talk or for a breath of fresher air.  

I'll wear one if I have no other choice, I won't lie and say I'm asthmatic or something.  But I'll ditch it the second I'm outside.  I feel genuinely sorry for the employess who have already been forced to wear one whether they want to or not, and now it's looking like it will be everyone.  Wearing a mask for 6 or more hours a day?  I'm glad I don't work retail.  

If someone is vulnerable (elderly, compromised) then they should be isolating as much as possible, cloth masks are not going to eliminate Sars-Cov-2.  Emergency measures are taking their toll on everyone though, and some will grasp at anything that they think might bring this to the end.  The only chances I see of that are either a vaccine, or if we get lucky and the virus mutates into something less serious which is possible but not assured.

Peace all and be well.