Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Harper's Consservatives counting on the stupidity of young Canadians

From a "do whatever it takes" perspective you can't help but be awed by the audacity of Stephen Harper and the Conservatives.

After all, our Prime Minister has never let things like scruples or simple truth get in his way when it comes to his pursuit of electoral success. Taxing income trusts, stacking the senate, ignoring an impending global financial storm....Harper has often played to gullible Canadian voters too busy to read the facts behind his sound bytes.

Now we have his latest gambit, "the IPOD tax".

What IPOD tax you ask?

Well...there is none planned or proposed by any party. But never one to let facts get in the way of a good smear, the Conservatives are trying to paint the opposition parties as supporting one.

This tactic reminds me of George W. Bush's successful smear of John McCain during the 2000 southern primaries. Cars in church parking lots in places like the Carolinas had their windshields hit with flyers insinuating that McCain had fathered an illegitimate child of colour....THE HORROR!!!

Great lies have a little scintilla of truth, McCain and his wife had adopted a child of colour, and to ignorant trailer park voters who pay little attention to the news this probably played extremely well. "Yah Billy Bob...I heared sometin' bout dat, he's gots him a coloured little girl".

Students of Goebbels know that when it comes to propaganda, lies don't matter. The bigger the lie the better, just repeat it until it seeps into the collective unconscious of the great unwashed.

And now we have the IPOD tax. Because the Liberals have expressed sympathy toward artists and members of the recording industry concerned about copyright infringement, that means they're in favour of imposing a tax on devices used to swap intellectual property, they're not.

But it may very well work. The next election is going to be close, and polling indicates that Harper is flirting tantalizingly close with a majority. By targeting youth, a demographic that doesn't vote in large numbers, the Tories may have found that elusive wedge to push them over the top.

Even if just a few hundred twenty somethings who normally wouldn't bother voting show up at a polling station and mark an X next to the Conservative candidate...It could very well be enough to make the difference in some closely contested ridings.

It probably is good strategy. Instead of defending an abysmal record, Harper is forcing the opposition parties to defend themselves against a red herring, one that they can't afford to ignore.

Stupid people vote too, it looks like the Conservatives are counting on them coming out in increased numbers so Harper can finally rule without opposition.

Who says Canada has a housing bubble? Lots of people

Anyone who keeps an eye on economic indicators probably has an opinion as to the relative health of the Canadian housing market, and with good reason. Whether you're simply a home owner looking to build equity, a prospective buyer trying to decide if now is a good time to jump into the market, or employed in the building or selling of homes in this country....


There are a lot of people who's financial situation is very much tied to the health of our housing market.

We've all seen the ads with the couple in front of a bank employee, young and probably leveraged to the hilt with expenses at or near their income. What to do? The bank helps them free up the equity in their home, borrowing against it at dirt cheap rates of interest to free up their monthly cash flow.

You have more money than you think, is the message. With your house appreciating significantly in value you can pay off the line of credit and those high interest credit cards, and then go buy that new car and maybe hop on a plane for a nice warm destination this winter. Of course you'll own less of your home than you did before, but you're monthly debt servicing costs will be less, so what the hell.

In our hedonistic society all we need is an "expert" vindicating our decisions to indulge and we're good to go.

Then there's the real estate industry, selling new and resale homes to prospective buyers. Thousands of people's pay cheques rely on a steady stream of buyers entering the market, pushing prices ever higher. Within this same group I'd include the financial industry, always on the lookout for new ways to sell more paper...signed mortgage documents ensuring a steady cash flow and a tangible asset represented in the actual property.

With all these voices having a vested interest in seeing housing prices on a never ending up swing it should come as no surprise that talk of a housing bubble gets some people's backs up, but the voices are out there.

The last time oil was cresting $120 (USD) a barrel there were voices in the wind urging caution, but far louder were the shills spooking investors with fears of peak oil. Those who bought into oil at the height of that fear are still smarting, not as badly as when it crashed all the way to about $40. The smart ones of course waited until the bottom fell out before buying in.

But that's what smart money does....smart money waits for the herd to push prices to insane levels, and then scoops up the bargains when the bubble bursts and the bottom falls out.

Is that where real estate is heading? Are homes at or near a peak and due for a major correction? You won't hear any of the aforementioned vested interests promoting this idea. Cautious industry hacks are as rare now as bearish stock analysts were when Nortel was flying high, but there are voices in the wilderness...there always are, you just need to look.

Back at the end of the summer (Aug. 31/2010) David Macdonald of the Canadians Centre for Policy Alternatives wrote a paper entitled:

Canada's Housing Bubble An Accident Waiting to Happen (LINKED)

It got some play in the media, but not nearly as much as reports done by industry players and major advertisers such as Remax. Here's one which paints a far rosier picture:

Real estate picture improving: Re/Max (LINKED)

So who are the voice in the wilderness? Beyond the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives are there others cautioning about the potential for a significant devaluation in house prices?

Yes.

Foremost would be Garth Turner with his blog GREATER FOOL (LINKED). This former 'loose cannon' politician and financial commentator pulls no punches and writes in a very engaging style that most I think will enjoy. His credentials also include many years working as a financial reporter/analyst for some of this country's major media outlets.

You can even find a full site dedicated to Canada's housing bubble at the aptly titled: Canada's Housing Bubble (LINKED)

A fellow blogger commented on an earlier post and mentioned that he has set up his own blog specific to the overheated Vancouver market: Vancouver Property News (LINKED)

When someone has a vested interest on one side or another of a debate, it can be hard to look past a firmly entrenched bias. For those still unconvinced of the storm clouds on the horizon, (clouds just waiting to be seeded by simple one or two point jump in mortgage rates) I invite you to read THIS ARTICLE: Housing bubble a danger - expert (LINKED) about Dean Baker, one of the first economists to predict the crashing of the US housing market.

Once mortgage rates start climbing I don't think it'll be long before signs like this become commonplace.



Thursday, December 23, 2010

Stephen Harper's Night Before Christmas - A Holiday Poem

Last year at this time I did what many have done before me, I wrote a poem butchering the Christmas classic 'The Night Before Christmas", it was entitled 'The Porogued Night Before Christmas.

I think I have the makings of a tradition here, as I've done the same again with "Stephen Harper's Night Before Christmas". So without further adieu here it is, have a happy and safe holiday season and a peaceful 2011 all.


Stephen Harper's Night Before Christmas

Twas the night before Christmas in old Ottawa town
And Stephen was pouting and wearing a frown
Everyone was out for some holiday cheer
While Harper stayed back, plotting moves for next year

Minority minority, that's all I can get
I'm doing all that I can, racking up a huge debt
So Stephen sat, he stewed and he brooded
Over majority rule, that so for had eluded

And then in a flash an idea did spring forth
As Harper looked out and did turn his gaze north
Santa, Saint Nick, that gift giving fool
For Christmas I'll ask for majority rule


So Harper sat, with his pen at a table
And wrote Father Christmas, the best he was able:

Santa the gift that will most make me drool
Is a right wing majority so I can finally rule
I have to compromise, to discus, its no good
With most of the seats I could rule as I should

Big tax cuts for business, the one's that make money
No cash left for Health Care? Now that would be funny
Big planes and big guns, our Forces will need
Social spending programs? They slowly can bleed

I don't ask for much, Dear kindly old elf
I'm thinking of Canada, not of myself
Please grant my wish, for this gift and with haste
I've been PM too long, there's no time to waste

No sooner had Stephen put a stamp on his letter
When Santa showed up, this couldn't be better
You see Santa's alive, he isn't on ice
He always has an eye out, for naughty and nice

"Oh Stephen I'm sorry. Did old St Nick say
"That isn't a gift I can put in my sleigh
Beside on my list of good boys and of bad
The things you have done have not made me glad

You've lied and played meanly, much further I could go
But to be fair you're not bad, when on piano
But even if you never, ever, ever had lied
This is a choice, and Canadian voters decide

Do what you will, seek wedge issues and such
Do all that you can, I know you'll do much
Mud sling and smear, your team is much skilled
You have deep pockets, your war chest is filled

As for me, to the Pole I must hurry straight back
Good children need toys coming out of my sack
You won't see me again, but you may yet reach your goal
Oh I almost forgot, here's a big lump of coal".


Again, a happy and peaceful season all. See you in 2011.


Sunday, December 19, 2010

Stephen Harper finally delivering - Canada becoming the 51st state

For long time followers of Stephen Harper it will be gratifying to see him finally delivering on at least one long held belief. After so many broken promises and compromises in an attempt to broaden his electoral appeal, our Conservative Prime Minister is now poised to hand over key decision making powers to our southern neighbours. You can read about it here: Globe and Mail here: All Voices and here: Toronto Sun.


That Harper admires the United States, and especially the conservative element therein, is no secret. Back in 1997 he made this now famous quote to a visiting American think tank:



Well Stephen, its about frickin' time!!! Maybe now Canadians will finally see fit to give you a majority mandate so you can pursue your Libertarian ideals without having to concern yourself with a meddlesome opposition. You'll be able to treat Parliament as a whole the way you treat your own Conservative caucus, as a prop.

The House of Commons is, after all, nothing more than a pale imitation of the US electoral college as you have stated before. The job of the electoral college in the US is to elect the US president based on the results of a federal election, and then they can basically screw off for another 4 years.

We can have an election, Conservatives will have a majority of the seats thus giving you, their elected leader, the Prime Minister's office. And with your centralized leadership style you'll be free to reign in much the same fashion as a US president. Should another war like Iraq come along, you'll be free to commit Canadian troops as you would have done when GW Bush was asking for Canada's involvement.