Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Quebec's good, bad and ugly or the corrupt the xenophobes and the bankrupt

So what's it gonna be Québec? Will it be the xenophobic Parti Québecois, or perhaps the CAQ with all those candidates who've filed for personal or business bankruptcy? Might you still opt for the devil you know, the Liberals with all the allegations of corruption surrounding them?

I will stick with my prediction of a PQ win with between 60 and 65 seats. And assuming the separatist Québec Solidaire wins the two seats pollsters are expecting, 61 gives the PQ a workable government, if of course QS is ready to lend its support.

I'm prepared to be surprised though, by a surge in either CAQ or Liberal support. Based on polling numbers and the firmness of voting intentions among supporters of the various parties I consider a Liberal minority still a possibility, with an outright win by the CAQ being extremely remote.

If I were making book on the outcome and calculating odds this is how I'd handicap the race.

  • PQ minority - 50%
  • PQ majority - 30%
  • Liberal minority - 10%
  • Liberal majority - 5%
  • CAQ minority - 3%
  • CAQ majority - 2%

After the results are in I will share my experience as a first time voter in a Québec provincial election.

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