Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Predictions of a soft landing for housing a sure sign the jig is up

If you've lived through a couple of recessions or more then you know the value of so called expert advice.  When the economy starts to slow, financial professionals and politicians all talk about strong fundamentals and how a recession isn't in the cards.  Later when cracks start to appear they trumpet the 'soft landing', which is a sure sign the economy is about to tank.

The same script is being used in the housing market now.  The latest comes from Scotiabanks CEO:


At worst, housing market headed for soft landing: Scotiabank CEO


Not a good sign, not from here in the cheap seats.  For those who bought in over the last 5 or so years and don't need to sell, its only a paper loss.  But for those who have to sell their home, be it for financial reasons or because of a move...well finding a buyer will likely prove difficult for the foreseeable future.

Lending rules have been tightened and carrying costs are higher now because there are no more 30/35/40 year mortgages to be had.  Just the standard 25 year amortization that was the norm before the Harper government started puffing air into the bubble with insane ams and zero money down.  Add the lax lending standards applied by the banks thanks to government insured debt and it was a recipe for the meal that's just starting to be served.  

Those selling should prepare themselves for low ball offers, its a buyers market, something Canada hasn't seen since the early 90s when house prices were hammered.  


Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Rising from the ashes - Don't let life's setbacks define you

This dusty little corner of cyberspace attracts its fair share of email. I get all manner of messages suggesting topics to write on, causes wanting some promotion and books looking for reviews. I read every message in my inbox, and though I usually ignore them, I have reviewed one book.

A recent email asked me to review a book that isn't yet published. Jan Reuter and Dr. William Borgen are writing a book called 'Recession Proof Your Career'. Their PR firm contacted Canadian Soapbox asking for assistance in finding success stories to be featured in the book.

"It only takes one person's story to change someone's outlook and positively impact their financial future". 

That's one line from the email I received, and I agree with it. It's called a testimonial, I've seen it used many times and I've seen it make a positive impact on people's lives.  Hearing or reading a story about someone's experience in overcoming adversity can help another person going through a hard time.

There are all kinds of motivational speakers and writers out there, and suffice to say I know I'm not one. But regardless I am going to give it a try. I don't expect my story to become fodder for a feature film, nothing like The Pursuit of Happiness or anything like that. Still, I have overcome some challenges in my life, and sharing my story might have an impact with others facing similar difficulties.

I've come to realize that a lot of life is about momentum.

Have you ever created a whirlpool in a swimming pool? You start going around and around in a circle, trudging through the water, labouring to create a current. At first you find it difficult, your legs and arms pumping to move forward through viscous water. But after a short time it starts getting easier, the water forms the desired current and instead of trudging, your steps become easier as the water almost carries you along. 

Life can be like that a lot of the time. We create a current around ourselves and we go with the flow. If the movement is positive, we float along happily, employing a little extra effort when we want things to move faster, gliding along when we need a break. Sometimes though, life pushes the water in the other direction, and we find ourselves fighting the current.  If it gets too hard, we can find ourselves slipping backwards. And when someone is unable to find the energy, strength or motivation to alter the current, they can get turned around and lives start to unravel. 

That's what happened to me the year I turned forty. I was married, with two kids and had a promising new career. I wouldn't say the current in my positive little whirlpool was tidal, but it was comfortable. Sadly the current changed, and for a long time I found myself being pushed in the opposite direction. 

They say the three most stressful experiences in life are divorce, death and job loss. I was hit with all three in the span of about one year. Divorce tops the list of life's stressing events because in many ways its like a death. What makes it all the more stressing is that the funeral never ends. I won't go into detail except to say I had to deal with betrayal, not just once but twice. I was betrayed both by my ex wife and by someone I thought was a friend. 

The death that followed was that of my mother. The woman who bore me, who guided and taught me was gone. A wonderful lady who held my hand when she walked me to school, and taught me so much.

A few months after that, my promising new career was at an end as well. I was working on strict commission as a consultant in the area of personal finance and wasn't earning anything. My own finances were a mess.  Its hard to inspire confidence in potential clients when you're living on credit. 

Fast forward a couple of years and I was working the midnight shift for the LCBO as a shipping receiving clerk through a temporary employment agency. 

After the divorce I wanted to continue picking up my children every day from school as I'd done before the break up. Working midnights enabled me to do that. And thanks to the fact that I was living with my widowed father, they each had their own room on my weeknds. 

I was struggling along in my little pool of life, but the current was working against me, and I couldn't get it moving in a positive direction. I'd worked several menial jobs for about two years.  I was a general labourer, a janitor and I unloaded trailers in a warehouse.  I was taking any graveyard shift job I could find, so that I could continue seeing my kids during the week. 

Slowly I came to realize that the path I was on, or better yet, the river I was sailing, that it was emptying into a body of water that was nothing but a dead and stagnant lake. In another ten years I would likely be bankrupt, and I couldn't see my kids respecting their father. 

I had to make a change. I had to make some decisions.

Making a decision is an important step. If you're going on a vacation you first have to decide on a destination. Until that decision is made its pointless worrying about the mode of transport or what you're going to pack. If you're only going a short distance you might drive, or maybe you'll take a bus or a train. If the destination is hundreds or thousands of miles away you'll probably fly. What you pack is determined by the weather at your destination. 

My destination was a place of increased financial security, and it was a place where my children would be proud of their father.   I decided to look into the Canadian Forces.  

When I was around the age of eleven my room looked like an armed forces advertisement.  The local mall in Beaverton Oregon (I spent a lot of my younger years growing up in the U.S.) had recruitment centres for the U.S. army, navy and air force.  My friends and I would visit and collect old posters, decals and other stuff to put up in our rooms.  

Perhaps that's what made me consider the military, I honestly don't know where the idea originated, maybe from my subconscious.  It was certainly something out of the ordinary for a then forty two year old to be considering.  

I won't go into heavy detail, but it was a difficult transition, both physically and mentally.  Some friends and family were supportive while others questioned my sanity. My sister said that they wouldn't take me, and that even if they did, I'd never be able to pass basic training.  She was wrong on both counts.

Its now two and half years down the line and the water in my pool is moving forward again.  I have a nice apartment near the base here in Québec where I'm living with my financé.  We will be married soon.  

I wouldn't say my life is perfect, but I am certainly in a a much better place now than where I was.  And definitely better than where I was heading if I hadn't changed course.  

Obviously I don't see my children as often as I used to.  But I talk to big brother Basketball Star and the Princess Raspberry almost every day.  They spent two weeks here having a fabulous vacation. And whenever I am able I travel to the GTA on weekends and spend time with them.  This past weekend I hosted Raspberry's eighth birthday at my father's house.

But the bottom line here with my story is that I had started to let a tragic event, divorce, define my life.  I was Gordie, the guy who had gotten divorced.  Well, I've changed that narrative and now I'm Gordie, the guy who joined the military in his forties and who is getting married soon.  

Don't let events define who you are, take the action necessary to write a positive and affirming autobiography.  

The comment section is open if you want to share an inspiring story, or if you're seeking inspiration from others.  If you want to send something to the authors of 'Recession Proof Your Career' you can visit the website: www.rpycareer.com



Thursday, September 13, 2012

Barack Obama - From party crasher to invited guest‏

I don't often write on the American political scene. Oh, I touch on it from time to time, and I do keep a close eye on what's happening south of the border. But being Canadian my principal focus is on events this side of the 49th parallel.

I do however have my opinions on American politics certainly, and on how both the Democrats and Republicans choose their eventual presidential nominees. In the case of Barack Obama, I view him as an incredible candidate who basically broke the door down when he beat out Hillary Rodham Clinton for the right to carry the Democratic banner in 2008.

Money, power and influence permeate the political scene, both here in Canada and in the United States. Without the support of powerful and wealthy behind the scenes players, a potential candidate has little hope of gaining the traction necessary to vie for the White House once every four years. Note that I say little hope, not zero.

Back in 2008 the candidate who had that behind the scenes support was Ms. Clinton in my opinion. Of course she would have to go through the primaries and garner the delegates needed for the nomination, but from my perspective it was supposed to be little more than a formality. Call it theatre if you will, not completely staged, but corporate media would provide the required narrative so the great unwashed would believe she was their choice.

Sounds far fetched?

Look at what happened to Ron Paul in the recent Republican primaries. After coming second in Iowa, an early contest capable of boosting a lesser known candidate's profile, major media outlets wouldn't even mention the Texas congressman's name. John Stewart made great sport of it on The Daily Show, just take a look.



Ron Paul was advocating something very dangerous to entrenched and vested interests, a return to the U.S. constitution, ending foreign wars and more importantly, business welfare. He obviously wouldn't be the candidate of choice for the industrial military complex, that's for sure.

But back to Barack Obama.

How did he succeed where Ron Paul failed? How was he able to break down a door that Mr. Paul couldn't budge?

It started back in 2004 with his keynote speech at the Democratic national convention in Boston. If you missed it and haven't yet viewed it...well then you're probably not a political junkie. But if you have an appreciation for great oratory, if words can inspire you and send chills down your spine, then give it a look.


It was at this point that Barack Obama became the political equivalent of a rock star. He was given this prestigious slot to help him win a seat in the United States Senate. No doubt it helped him win in Illinois, but four years later it gave him the national profile he needed for a run at presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

The way I see things Hillary was the establishment choice, the primaries a mere dog and pony show leading to a coronation. The problem was that Barack wasn't given a copy of the script.

Does that mean I think Barack Obama is anti-establishment? Not in the least, I think he's very much an advocate for the establishment now.  The current president has supported the same corporate welfare schemes and bail outs as his predecessor George W. Bush, has kept the Patriot Act on the books and not closed down Guantanamo Bay as he pledged (LINK).  

I do not believe Mr. Obama could have become president if he hadn't agreed to play ball with the wealthy and powerful puppet masters pulling strings beyond the curtain. Hillary would have danced to their tune as well, in fact I think her refusal to drop out of the race for so long was the result of a unwavering belief that she was 'the chosen one' of the American elites.

And from where I sit she was, until Mr. Obama came crashing through the door and demanded the opportunity to be co-opted the same way both Clintons were.

I realize this is a cynical and not too uncommon point of view among many observers of the political scene. Basically the idea is that the agenda is set behind the scenes, with politicians fighting over who will get to deliver (or sell) the pogrom to the great unwashed. Its all great sport, but all the players are all being paid by the same group. If you want to be noticed on the field, you better do as you're told. 

The question might then be asked: ''Why even bother with it, if its all basically rigged''?

Because it does matter in my opinion. There's still a piece of the pie left for Joe Six-Pack and Jane Wine-Cooler, although it seems to me that this slice is getting smaller and smaller. Sticking with the dessert analogy, imagine an apple pie (or pumpkin if you prefer) with one small slice carved out of it. That slice represents a political leader's wiggle room if you will. The rest of the pie has been spoken for.

Presidents and politicians can debate and argue over that small part, so long as the greater pie isn't touched, that big piece belongs to the elites, the behind the scene players..

My prediction for the coming US election is a Barack Obama re-election. Do I think it will be by a landslide or a nose? It doesn't matter, not in a winner take all system. Romney's role is similar to that of John Kerry or John McCain, fight hard and give us a good performance.

I will enjoy the show, but I'll put $100 on the Democrats holding onto the White House for another four years right now. Sitting as I do in the cheap seats, its all I can afford. After that, I think its Jeb Bush's ordained turn, unless someone else comes crashing through the door.

 One can only hope.

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Who wants to make a movie depicting Judasim as a cancer?

I saw maybe half of Sasha Baron Cohen's movie ' Borat', I thought it was ignorant and stupid. When his latest movie, `The Dictator' was released I watched the trailers and took a pass. 

Jokes and gags about racial, religious and cultural stereotypes aimed at marginalized segments of our society don't hold much appeal. 

Do you know how copper wire was invented? Two Jews were fighting over a penny. Ha ha, I bet that went over big in Germany seventy or eighty years ago. 

Given Jewish history of the past hundred or so years I would have hoped that members of the Hebrew faith might have some sensitivity over such things. 

Well, those hopes appear to have been wasted with likes of Mr. Cohen. And also with Sam Bacile who is in the news because of his film "Innocence of Muslims'', which he wrote and directed. It depicts Islam's prophet Mohammad as a fraud with insulting claims that he approved of sexually abusing children. Violent reaction to the film is being blamed for the murder of U.S. ambassador Chris Stevens as well as three other Americans. 

You can read the full story here: Vancouver Sun Story

I wonder what the reaction would be if an American Muslim film maker wrote and directed a film claiming that Moses was a pedophile who faked the whole scene at Mount Sinai to gain political power over the Hebrew people and then used that power to make himself and his closest friends rich. 

Imagine the reaction if this film maker then gave interviews claiming he was merely exposing the evils of Judaism and expressed a belief that the Jewish faith is a cancer that needs to be exposed and eradicated. 

We've already seen how some Christians reacted to Martin Scorsese's `The last temptation of Christ'. And that movie was pretty tame in my view. How much stronger would that reaction have been if it portrayed Jesus as advocating sodomy among his disciples? 

Personally I don't think any one faith has all the answers. But I know many Muslims, Christians and Jews regard their faith as the one and only path to God and heaven. Still, I will pray that fervent Muslims will borrow from a teaching of Jesus, regarded is Islam as a prophet, and turn the other cheek. 

Gandhi put it best, when you fight fire with fire, all you end up with is more fire. Or even better, taking an eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.