That was one long walk in the snow Justin

If Warren Kinsella is right, and I have little reason to doubt him, then Justin Trudeau is going to run for the Liberal leadership. Given how long it took him to reach this decision I thought perhaps he was waiting for winter to arrive.  That way he could follow in his father's footsteps by taking a walk in the snow before making making up his mind.

Pierre Trudeau of course took his famous walk in the snow before announcing his departure from political life back in February of 1984.  I think it would have had a nice symmetry to it, combined with an interesting dichotomy.  The old man exiting the Prime Minister's office in the same way that the son aspires to it.

As for rumours that JT will insist on his team being all forty years of age or younger, I'm ambivalent....besides which I don't really care.  I can see positives and negatives to such a move.  The obvious negative is that it will eliminate some very experienced people.  The positive is that a lot of that experience is in running losing campaigns.

I do think he's the best choice for the LPC.

Choosing where to invest and with whom - Its about rapport

Yesterday I wrote about Garth Turner and his website Greater Fool. I told you about his current Canada wide tour where he's hosting seminars and (no doubt) giving lots of advice about where people should be investing their money. Given the cost of the seminar, (free) I have little doubt that there will be lots of brochures and pamphlets on chairs and tables, all flogging a variety of investment products. And likely salespeople waiting nearby.

In my opinion, probably not the best way to be making important financial decisions.

In a previous life I worked in the financial industry, so obviously I have some opinions on this subject. But don't expect me to be touting one investment over another. I'm not going to suggest that segregated funds beat mutual funds, that term insurance is better value than universal or whole life...or the reverse, that's not what I'm writing about.

Suffice to say with financial planning and investments there isn't one size fits all.

So what is important? 

Things like tolerance for risk and time horizon. What are your financial plans and goals? A 60 year old couple looking to retire in the next few years will have different needs as compared to twenty somethings with a child on the way and looking to buy their first home.

At the end of the day its about relationships in my opinion. Its about finding and working with an individual in whom you have confidence, trust, and rapport.

So then, what company?

There are more choices now than there ever have been. Years ago the answer was simple, go to the bank. For some that may still be the preferred option. Personally I think at least equal consideration should be given to the individual you're dealing with, there are lots of reputable companies offering investment and financial products. And with the banks, its rare that a representative will meet you at your home, at your convenience. Further bank employees might get promoted or moved, while individual consultants representing many established companies operate as their own proper businesses.  

And with many companies you can bundle numerous products together, which often leads to significant savings. We've all heard the ads about bundling car and home insurance to save on premiums. Well now there are strong companies that will bundle more than just home/auto insurance. You can now get mortgages, life insurance, RRSPs, RESPs, TFSAs, GICs and more...all from the same firm providing insurance for your residence and vehicles.

And as with the banks, your money is insured.  

I'm now living in Québec, and when I was out shopping for a new car La Capitale was recommended to me for auto insurance. They're a perfect example about what I'm talking about in terms of offering a whole suite of financial products and services.

I will reiterate the point I consider most important in all this. Its all about confidence, trust and rapport.

I will add one more, accessibility. Financial markets can be volatile, and so can people's lives. Whether its a change in your personal circumstances or a major event in the markets, I strongly suggest working with a representative or consultant who makes time for their clients.

Garth Turner's advice - Worth what it costs?

Its been a while since I blogged on Canada's housing bubble, which might seem odd given that there are finally obvious cracks showing in this nation's real estate market.  If those predicting a significant correction in house prices prove right, (guilty) its certainly been a long time coming.

That's the thing with bubble markets, even though a particular asset class might be grossly overvalued, so long as people keeping pumping money in, the balloon will keep stretching.  In the case of Canadian homes there's been plenty of incentive to push prices even higher over the past three or four years.  Thanks to government securitized loans (CMHC) our supposedly conservative banks have been forking over billions in mortgages at super low interest rates and stretching  amortizations out as long as forty years.

Government backed CMHC insurance eliminated risk for the banks, so they've based mortgages on 'stated income' and haven't even been bothering to inspect the homes they're financing, a simple postal code check has been the preferred method.

You probably know a few geniuses who boast about how many properties they own, I do.  These amateur part time landlords are convinced they can't lose, nothing different from what happened in the US during the housing boom down south.

I've said all this before of course, as has Garth Turner on his very popular blog Greater Fool.  I've mentioned both him and his website many times, suggesting its very much worth taking a look at.  I now somewhat regret the suggestion.

I say 'somewhat' because I'm still reading it and still enjoying it.  The writing style is very engaging and often hilarious, the pictures he posts on each entry alone are often worth the visit.  But I now want to qualify my suggestion of visiting Greater Fool with some advice of my own.

Be wary of any advice offered free of charge, often times you get what you pay for.

I've worked in the financial industry before, and while I wouldn't say the problem is rampant, there is a degree of sleaze out there and one should always be cautious.  There are always shills out and about flogging their products as the nextest and bestest investment vehicle with promises of returns that will outperform the overall market.

I don't think I've ever done that here myself.  While I have agreed that housing has been significantly overvalued over the past three years, I haven't ever suggested where one might invest their money after realizing significant gains from selling or borrowing against the equity in a home.

Garth, well that's his stock and trade it seems.  His favorites for the last while have been banks and REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts).

Thanks to the incredible run Canadian real estate has had, there are a lot of Canadians sitting on a lot of capital, capital that's tied up a house.  In other words is isn't liquid.  And this is where Mr. Turner comes in.  Not only does he typically suggest crystallizing those windfall tax-free capital gains by selling, he is then full of advice on where to invest the money.

Right now he's on a Canada wide tour, packing them in for free seminars in hotel conference rooms.

I'm not suggesting to someone planning to attend to take a pass, absolutely not.  There's nothing wrong with arming yourself with as much information as possible, even if the advice is seemingly free.  I say seemingly because I'm one of those cynics who believes there is precious little in this life that is truly free.

Promotion of investment vehicles is a big industry, and there are a lot of people out there with significant net worth who are anxious about the overall economy, not just the value of their home.  Its easy to fall prey to promoters who sound genuine but are really nothing more than commissioned sales people, no different from the real estate agents Mr. Turner so often derides.

Its a jungle out there, beware of strangers bearing gifts and free advice, even when they're hip and ride into town on a motorcycle.

Some Quebecers like their politicians soft

How do you like your eggs? Hard boiled, once over lightly? Me, I like mine scrambled usually.

But what about the men and women elected to public office? The most recent polling numbers suggest that about 28% of Quebecers prefer their politicians to be soft, at least on the issue of independence.

François Legault used to be hard for separation, a real pitt bull. Now he says he changed his mind, he's no longer in favour of sovereignty. Does that mean he's hard for Federalism now? Well, no...not exactly. He's not really a Federalist either, instead he's using the word Nationalist to describe himself.

Nationalist...WTF does that mean?

Only in Québec. The political vocabulary in this province is different from what I'm used to, being a transplanted Ontarian. If someone tells me they're a nationalist, I would take that to mean that they're proud to be Canadian.

Mais pas içi.

In Québec's political culture you're either a federalist or a separatist. Either you're for Québec remaining a province in a united Canada or in favour of Québec separating and forming a new country. That's not to say there isn't some nuance allowed, your position can be either hard or soft.

I'm talking about politics here.

Whether one is a soft separatist or soft federalist, it really means the same thing. You swing both ways depending on the circumstances and wording of the question. A sort of political bisexuality if you will.

Hard is of course, just hard.

Jean Charest is hard, no question. He is a federalist through and through. Pauline Marois as well, although the opposite kind of hard as befitting a member of the opposite sex perhaps.

But François Legault? Well, there's no other way to describe his stance on this all important issue other than Soft.

Its nothing but political gamesmanship in my opinion, or as it is put here, chicanery. The CAQ leader is trying to walk both sides of the street, and so far its working. Like a Texas hold `em player who has made it to the final table, he sits happily with a decent size stack while the other two main players go all in.

I don't think the electorate here was expecting sovereignty to be a major issue. I suspect Mme Marois and the PQ would have preferred that the question of creating a new 'nation' via a referendum remain on the back burner . That might have allowed her to pick up Federalists in favour of protecting and promoting the French language and Québec culture. But the emergence of Québec Solidaire and to a lesser degree Option Nationale (the world National even swings both ways) forced her to put her chips in play.

Charest for his part has never left any doubt about his convictions on the question of Canadian unity.

September fourth is next week, and we'll know the results then. Who knows, in Québec politics maybe soft is best? It might make François Legault the King maker or perhaps even the King.

And if a vote on independence comes at same point, maybe there's some medication the CAQ leader can take to firm up his....uhm resolve.