Sunday, March 8, 2009

New 3-D Strategy for Aghanistan - Depart Depart Depart

The Canadian death toll keeps climbing, with three more dead soldiers recently making their way down our hi-way of heroes. Canadians are now hearing the admission of Stephen Harper (among others) that victory in Afghanistan is not attainable. If victory is not possible why do we remain? We're being told that we don't need to exit Afghanistan, rather we need to change our definition of victory.

The message Harper and others are delivering now is that of a 3-D offensive. The 3 Ds standing for Defence, Diplomacy and Development. In reality we need only one D...departure. Departure before another 112 Canadian soldiers have to make their way down Canada's Trans-Continental hi-way with a flag draped over their coffins. Departure before thousands more civilians are killed either by suicide bombers or coalition led air strikes. And finally departure before work can be started on a long coveted natural gas pipeline through the south, including Kandahar Province.

In my last posting on this topic, 'Why Is Canada In Afghanistan...And Not The Congo?' the point was brought up in the comments about Al-Qaeda and the numerous attacks this group is alleged to have made on western interests. I say alleged only because there has never been a court case convened that followed western precepts based on the rule of law. With that being said I don't doubt for a second that there are extremist Islamic elements, elements who try and have succeeded in causing damage to America and her allies.

When George W. Bush finally agreed to convene an investigation into the events of 9/11, albeit one which was tightly controlled...it was revealed that the hijackers were from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Lebanon and Egypt. Further the commission concluded that the attacks were planned in Hamburg Germany...not in Afghanistan. So why was Afghanistan invaded? Initially we were told it was to get Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden "dead or alive". The ruling Taliban would not hand over their national hero, Bin Laden, who with training and support from the Americans had thwarted the Soviet invasion some 30 years prior.
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It is difficult to talk about the war in Afghanistan without at least touching on the September 11 attacks. Nobody will ever forget the events of that fatal day when 2 planes hit the World Trade Centre's north and south towers and 3 buildings collapsed, along with a plane hitting the Pentagon and another crashing into a million bits in a field in Pennsylvania. That wasn't a mistake on my part about three (3) WTC buildings collapsing. So much happened on that horrible day that many people I talk to have completely forgotten that building 7 basically imploded:



In some respects the September 11th attacks can be viewed as a stroke of luck. A Neo-Conservative think tank called Project For The New American Century or PNAC for short, (with such luminaries of the Bush administration as Paul Wolfowitz, Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney, Richard Perle and Lewis "Scooter" Libby listed among their signatories and contributors) put out a discussion paper entitled:

Rebuilding America's Defences: Strategy, Forces and Resources For a New Century.

In this paper a bold plan of extending America's military reach to areas such as southeast Asia was outlined. However on page 63 it was noted that:

Further, the process of transformation , even if it brings revolutionary change, is likely to be a long one, absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event - like a new Pearl Harbor.

The attacks of September 11th gave this cadre of neo-cons exactly such a 'calalyzing event'. One used to launch wars against countries like Afghanistan and Iraq. The goal in Afghanistan has constantly been shifting, from getting Bin Laden, to establishing democracy, to improving human and women's rights, to preventing a potential incubator for terrorists.

Lost in all these shifting reasons has been any meaningful discussion about the long planned TAPI pipeline or the massive deposit of oil in the Caspian basin. For those willing to seek the information out John Foster, lead economist for Petro Canada from 1976-81, authored a comprehensive paper for the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, it was published in June 2008.

“A Pipeline Through A Troubled Land: Afghanistan, Canada, And The New Great Energy Game”

Of course in our digital age of sound bytes and 10 second video clips, in depth analysis requiring hours of reading...well it ain't exactly something the masses lap up. Far easier to just affix simple labels like Taliban, Insurgent, Al Qaeda or Terrorist to anyone who opposes us. Just as in Vietnam when over 50,000 US soldiers died to stop the non-existent dominoes from falling... false claims do make some feel the sacrifice is somehow worth it.


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Friday, March 6, 2009

Crocuses Soon To Be Popping Up - Along With For Sale Signs...

Spring is in the air...finally. Robins will soon begin feathering their nests, migratory birds will be returning, crocuses will start pushing their way through the newly softened earth...and in this the spring of our economic discontent we'll also be seeing lots of For Sale signs sprouting up.

Canada hasn't seen an implosion in Real Estate values similar to what's happened in some parts of the United States, at least not yet. But with the Canadian economy tethered to the fate of our southern neighbours, as their economy sinks further I expect to see us being dragged down as well. How far? In my opinion a decent barometer is to take stock of where the U.S. economy is now with the reasonable assumption being that we'll see a similar decline over a 60-90 day period.

In terms of the Real Estate market it isn't a pretty picture. Word out of the U.S. is that 1 in 5 mortgage holders is in a negative equity situation, that is to say that more money is owed on the house than its current valuation. Some will contend that Canada didn't engage in so called "sub-prime" lending practices, which is true...but we did have lenders offering no money down financing with 40 year amortizations. Our situation might be better here, but I think it will simply turn out to be a matter of degrees.
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The laws of supply and demand dictate that when there are lots of properties on the market and a limited number of buyers, that prices trend downward. With lay offs and job losses being reported daily it is logical to assume that many will be forced into listing their homes. Obviously in places like Oshawa/Whitby, Windsor and anywhere else where auto manufacturing is a key component of the local economy things stand to be worse...likewise with Hamilton and steel.

For those looking to buy the coming months could offer a great opportunity, both in terms of selection and price. While Ottawa tosses around billions to prop up businesses and for infrastructure spending, little is being done for Canadians being body slammed by this recession. The best thing to do in a situation like this is often to sit tight and wait for the storm to pass. But without leadership from Ottawa and tangible help from programs like EI...waiting out the storm will not be an option for some.

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Calling Jim Flaherty - Ontario Needs You

Well Jimmy, no doubt you've heard the good news...the Ontario PCs are once again looking for a new leader. That guy who beat you for the leadership last time around...John Tory, he made his resignation official. The door is open my boy, you can now make a triumphant return to Queen's Park. No more whining about Ontario's corporate taxes, you can seize the leadership and go head to head with Dalton's Liberals...and then reward your business friends when you become Ontario's next premier.

Yeah I know you have a sweet gig in Ottawa right now, but governing in a recession is no picnic. And let's face it, you haven't exactly been a shining star in the portfolio of finance for your boss Stephen Harper. Canadians are pretty reasonable, we know that forecasts aren't always bang on the mark...but a best before expiry of just 48 hours on your projections doesn't look too good.

One thing Jimmy, if you do decide to make the leap...be careful about the issue of funding faith based schools. Yeah yeah, I know its your pet...but it was that plank which doomed Ontario's provincial Tories. If that was a Trojan horse though I must say it was a brilliant strategy. I know losing the party leadership to John Tory really stung. Was getting him to promise to make funding faith based schools a key election issue a bit of subterfuge on your part? If so well done you cagey bastid!

I love the way you screwed Tory over when Harper was setting a Canadian record for stuffing the Senate. A word from you and Stevie would've plucked a sitting Conservative MPP from Ontario...one in a truly safe riding to give JT a smooth ride into the legislature. Glad to see you haven't lost your vindictive touch. To hell with John Tory, that should serve as a nice reminder should anyone try to seriously challenge your rightful place again.
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I mean seriously, John Tory is a nice and decent guy and all...but he had no business running against a veteran politician such as yourself. If you want to lead a major political party you have to know how to flip flop, and to not blink while doing it. You and Stevie did that so well when you reversed your decision on Income Trusts. It was beautiful, Harper even had ME believing you guys were gonna leave Trusts alone.



So Mr. Flaherty...whaddyer say? Let someone else drive Ottawa's treasury into the ground, come back to Ontario...we need you.

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Thursday, March 5, 2009

Who Wants To Save Money On Gasoline? Hands Up!

Back around September of 2008 I had a great idea for sticking it to the likes of Esso, Shell, Petro Canada and the rest of the major gasoline retailers in this country. I'm sure everyone who drives remembers seeing gasoline prices rising steadily over a buck and then to $1.20 and $1.30. In the Greater Toronto Area prices soared to almost $1.40 a litre, and I know in other parts of the country it was even more.

Our federal Competition Bureau is constantly telling us there's no price fixing by gas retailers. That's something I find hard to believe when every station within an hour's drive of where I live charges exactly the same price. On top of that when prices go up or down, all the stations do it in tandem, changing prices by the same amount on the same day at the same time. No price fixing??? Puh-Lease!!!

Of course shortly after my brilliant brainstorm prices at the pumps started falling steadily, getting down close to 60 cents. Now in the GTA prices have again begun creeping up, with regular going for about 85 cents....that's a 40% spike. I haven't heard many people complaining though, except perhaps to say...."Yeah its gone up, but thank god its still under a buck".

The increases this time haven't been as drastic as last summer when a sudden jump of 10 or 15 cents wasn't unheard of. Instead we've seen prices moving up 5 cents, then down a couple pennies...up 3 then down 1. Still I can't help but think a sudden spike isn't that far off...any refinery trouble or geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East could serve as justification (in the eyes of Big Oil) to suddenly send prices up by 15 or 20 cents overnight.

If that starts happening again...I have an idea.
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I'm not going to suggest rotating boycotts...they won't work. People with Esso points will go to Esso regardless, the same goes for Petro and Petro-Points or Shell and AirMiles. On top of that human beings are creatures of habit, someone used to going to the same station for their gas isn't going to stop. The other suggestion I've heard is to try and get people to only put in $5 or $10 a time...which is all I can afford some days. But people who have to drive 50 or more kilometres a day don't want to be stopping constantly for gas.

What I am going to suggest is something much more simple, and it applies specifically to when there's a big jump in price...say a nickel or more a litre. To put that in more tangible terms, a 5 cent increase at the pump means you're paying $2.50 more for a 50 litre fill-up.

Way back when I used to work at a gas station, and though it was about 20 years ago (damn I'm getting old) the procedure for changing prices hasn't changed. If gas jumps from 70 to 80 cents a litre, the first thing the attendant does is change the big electronic sign. Customers in the process of filling up are still paying 70 cents though, because the price on the sign doesn't affect the price at the actual pump. Of course when the big sign changes people stop coming in to fill up.

As soon as there are no more cars pumping gas the attendant programs the new price into the pumps. If someone drives in during this interval they're simply asked to wait a minute...and they can't bitch because the "big sign" says the new higher price. When prices are going down its a lot easier, people are simply asked to wait...'the price is going down'...nobody bitches about waiting a minute when the price drops.

PUT UP YOUR HAND AND WAVE
Here's where we can stick it to the Gasoline Companies. If you're filling up at 80 cents and see the big sign switched over to 90 cents, raise your hand in the air and start waving it. I'm sure many drivers can relate to being on the road when prices suddenly spike. You drive around looking for the lower price, but all the stations have signs with the new higher price. Guess what? They may not! If there are still cars pumping its possible they're still charging the lower price, with the attendant waiting for traffic to dry up so he/she can re-program the pumps with the higher price.

Obviously this won't work too well for people who live in rural and less populated areas, but for the majority of Canadians who live in or around a major urban centre...it could be a good way to save a few bucks, while sticking it to the likes of Esso and Petro Canada. I'm not suggesting this will bring any of the majors to their knees, but even a small dent in their billion dollar profits would bring a measure of satisfaction.

And don't worry about hurting the little guy...the major brands have driven independent retailers almost totally out of business through predatory pricing. With retailers like Esso the station most often is something like a franchise, with the retailer earning a very small commission for gasoline based on volume. Most of the money made by the individuals running the stations comes from convenience items like cigarettes and other sundries.

So if you're filling up and notice that the price on the big electronic sign jumps by a dime, but the price indicated at the actual pump is still low...Put your hand in the air and wave it around a bit. For those driving around when prices suddenly spike, keep an eye out for someone pumping and waving...and get in line if you must.

Can it work? I don't know...it can if enough people do it. Pretty well everyone knows that if an on-coming car flashes its lights that there's a speed-trap ahead...if you didn't, you do now. That little piece of collective communication came about before the Internet. If you think this can work then share it with everyone you know....email, facebook...whatever.

Maybe we can't bring Big Oil to its knees, but it sure would be nice to kick them in the shins every now and again.

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