A Not So Modest Proposal - An excercise in creative writing...

Balphus was pleased, things were going well. 

No operation ever goes off without a hitch, there are almost always surprises that weren't anticipated, but so far there hadn't been any unexpected or insurmountable incidents.  The agent was working as designed, the collateral damage minimal at best.  In another twenty four months, give or take, the world's human population was going to be both younger and healthier. 

Balphus couldn't remember the last time he'd heard his first name, he and the three others in his position were on a strict last name basis.  One step from the top, or from what they perceived as the top.   Just one removed from the one they all called The Baron, oldest of the old, the ancient one.  At times Balphus wondered to whom The Baron answered, but he always dismissed those concerns quickly, he knew he was near the apex of an immense pyramid, and if The Baron wasn't the pinnacle, he was close.

Nubahe, an underling, was worried about Sweden, but Balphus was able to allay his concerns.

"They'll blow the whole thing, when people start seeing that the young and healthy aren't affected others will copy their response".  "Anticipated" was Balphus' quick reply.  "I and the others actually thought there would be more, we figured three and maybe four advanced westernized countries wouldn't play along with what we advised, no matter how dire things were made to appear". 

Nubahe looked puzzled, so Balphus explained. 

"You're forgetting the second wave.  Mitigation efforts ensure an abundant supply of unaffected and vulnerable hosts for the inevitable easing of restrictions.  The resulting case loads and deaths will play right into our hands". 

The messaging had already been planned.  For mitigation efforts to be truly effective there had to be damn near one hundred percent compliance among nations, and most certainly among developed nations.  What with interconnecting supply chains, there was never a complete closing of borders.  Any outlying nation or nations that hadn't followed the advice of operatives withjn global, national and regional agencies could be made scape goats for the inevitable and anticpated second wave.  The ensuing global outcry and pressure would ensure that the next lock down would be optimal. 

Yes things were going well, too well, and that caused Balphus to worry.  Expect the unexpected was a mantra for him, but how do you prepare for the unknown.  "The Guidestones" he remembered again, probably for the hundredth or so time over the past four weeks.  That's why the Guidestones were there, he hoped he'd prepared well enough that they would never be needed. 


THANKS FOR READING

This of course is fictional, and simply reflects the meaderings of my imagination.  

Accepting lockdown measures is like First Nations accepting blankets...

If you don't understand the reference, after destroying First Nation People's property, homes and very lives governments gave them blankets to help them through the winter, the blankets were infested with smallpox.

Let's count the casualities.

-The person scheduled for a screening for that lump or growth, told that early detection is the most important tool in the box for surviving cancer.   That vital screening was indefinitely delayed...when the test comes back malignant, oh well....we were afraid of the coronavirus so we had to sacrifice some lives, sorry you're one of them.

-The woman living with an abusive husband.  Maybe he'll kill her, or maybe she'll kill herself.  Oh well, didn't you hear about the pandemic.

-The person suffering from mental illness whose sessions were cancelled.  Tell him or her to watch TV, that's always soothing.  Try the program called death and disease 24/7, otherwise knows as the evening news.

- The woman who poured heart and soul into a small business, mortgaged to the hilt whose dream was close to turing the corner....relax, when things get back to normal you can go work at one of the big box multinationals that was deemed essential.

And for what?  As I write this Canada is reported as currently having 557 cases deemed serious and in need of medical care, some of them critical. That's out of 22,553 active cases.  That's 2.7% of active identified cases being deemed serious or critical.  And note I used the words "identified cases" because we're being told this number is just the tip of the iceberg....that there are likely tons more people walking around who are carrying the coronavirus and don't even know it....they don't know it because its not making them sick.

When this all started, and by "this" I mean the lockdown measures, it was based on a report by the Imperial College of London that predicted between one and two million dead in the United States.  Two million plus if nothing was done to halt the spread, and about 1 million if mitigation measures were put in place, assuming 70% compliance.

The ICL computer modelled simulation wasn't done for Canada, (they only looked at the U.S. and Great Britain) but they said other western nations could expect proportional results with some allowance for variance depending on the strength of the healthcare system and overall population age.  So for Canada with its population of about 38 million versus roughly 330 million for the United States...something a little under 100,000 deaths were anticipated, with lockdown measures.

Close to 100,000 deaths from Coronavirus, that's why these measures were put into place.  To put that into perspective Health Canada puts the annual death toll from the seasonal flu in 2018 at 8,511, the number six leading cause of death for that year.

These number certainly lined up with what the likes of Dr. Fauci were saying at the beginning, that the novel coronavirus and resulting Covid-19 disease was "at least" 10 times as lethal as the seasonal flu.

But the data that the ICL had at its disposal when they ran their simulation was not nearly as robust as what's available now.  Italy is fast approaching 25,000 deaths, which puts that country on course to surpass the 24,980 deaths from the seasonal flu during the 2016/2017 influenza season as per the International Journal of Infectious Diseases.

The  novel coronavirus is worse than the flu, that is obvious....with the flu we have so called "herd immunity" and annual vaccines, in fighting Covid-19 we have neither.  But we can clearly see that the 10x more deadly messaging is looking more than just a little bit alarmist. 

Scientists are now running new computer modelled simulations, with a lot more data and knowledge than the ICL had, and there are now some U.S. states easing off on some lockdown measures based on research which suggests the worst is now over.

Its time Canada started to plan as well....before even more damage is done.  The sick and elderly who were moved out of hospitals into Long Term Care facilities to free up space for the anticipated surge, its too late for many of them.  The people whose malignant tumours weren't screened in time to save their lives will have to be chalked up to collateral damage in the war against the mouse that roared.

One final note....while the novel coronavirus may not be life or even health threatening for better than 99% of the population, there are some for whom it is a deadly risk....like flu is for cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy.  For the elderly and/or health compromised, vigilance is very much needed....we've seen what happens when cases start being reported in nursing homes and hospices.

And I don't think anyone with a condition like Diabetes (or any of the other conditions listed as likely to cause severe health issues) should be working right now, it would be nice if aid was targetted to those who need it most.   When all this is over I hope McDonalds, Burger King, KFC and all the other big chains hold a Coronavirus promotion as a thank you for all the small competitors who were taken out by lockdown measures.

Overcomer - Better than 'The Blind Side'

I don't write much here anymore, this is my first posting in over a year.  But every once in a rare while I feel compelled to share my thoughts on a particular subject, this is one of those times.

My wife and I along with our soon to be six year old son went to see the newly released film 'Overcomer' on Monday August 26th.  This is simply an incredible movie, so incredible that I took it in a second time on Tuesday September 3rd with my daughter from my first marriage.

Take note of these two seemingly contradictory terms, simple and incredible, because this movie is both.  While the production and acting are top rate I doubt Overcomer will be winning any Academy or Gloden Globe Awards, unless they create a new category, Most Powerful Message.

Full disclosure now, I represent what many would consider to be this movie's target audience, I am a Christian.  But I must also acknowledge that its only in the past year that I have become much more intentional with my faith, in point of fact I turned my back on God for a long time.  Central to my faith and a big part of this story is that while I, as an individual, turned my back on God and rejected the saving grace that comes from the person of Jesus Christ, God did not turn His back on me. 

I can pretty much promise anyone going to see this movie, that they will identify with one of the characters.  For me it was the lead role of John Harrison, a history teacher and basketball coach at a Christian high school.  While John is a Christian, the way he views himself as a believer is challenged when he meets Thomas, a blind diabetic undergoing dialysis in the hospital. 

Cameron Arnett is the actor who plays Thomas, and if anyone in this movie were to deserve an Acadamy nomination, in my opinion it would be this veteran actor.  I was literally moved to tears during some of his scenes.  The first time I saw the movie I had tears rolling down my cheeks, the second time my daughter thought I was having trouble breathing when in fact I was trying to supress audible sobs. 

I found Overcomer to be an incredibly emotional movie, however there are also some wonderfully funny moments and I enjoyed some heartfelt, (and very much needed) belly laughs.  I will admit though, I laughed more on the first viewing, and wept more on the second.  The tears were not sorrowful however, they were tears of joy.  A joy that comes from receiving the most meaningful of gifts despite having done absolutely nothing to deserve it.  This movie reminded me and reinforced the beauty and joy of God's wonderful grace.

God isn't just good, God is amazing.

It would be a mistake to put this film into the feel good, beating the odds, underdog David vs Goliath pile, because Overcomer is so much more.  This movie is about life, I can think of no better way to phrase it.  And a central theme of every life is struggle, everybody struggles at one time or another.

In this film all the characters struggle, and if you've struggled with life (has anyone not) then I encourage you to go and see it.  If you're open to having your heart and soul touched, this movie has a very good chance of reaching you:

Ontario's Conservatives looking like a Multi Level Marketing scheme....

If you've ever been to a presentation for a company like Amway or Melaluca, then you likely understand the appeal of  someone like Doug Ford.  

The script is fairly simple, some guy (invariably a man) gets up in front of a room full of people hoping to get rich, and he tells them how.  He shows off his watch, dangles the fob for his Lexus or Mercedes, talks of his fabulous and exotic vacations and tells those attending, "YOU TOO", can be living this life.  

All you have to do is sign up for the Multi-Level Marketing pyramid scheme being pitched, plunk down $1,000 or so bucks and the dream is yours.  Dreams are nice.  

In politics the Doug Fords and Donald Trumps attract the same type of followers.  People see the wealth and think:  "With this guy running things, life will be good".  

The appeal isn't hard to understand, a lot of people are struggling.  The cost of living in Ontario is high, and its only getting higher.  Everything is expensive: housing, gas, groceries, heat and hydro, its all costing more and wages are not keeping up.  That means people are falling behind.  

But a Doug or a Donald, they're gonna help.  And it doesn't even cost anything, just an X on a ballot.  Taxes will drop, jobs will be so abundant that wages will strart climbing faster than inflation, the streets will be paved with gold just like in the good old days.

I get it.  Let's face it, the old ways of electing career politicians hasn't delivered the results many were hoping for.  Sure the Uber Rich keep getting wealthier no matter what brand of goverment the great unwashed select, and the cost of soap keeps going up.

Guys like Ford and Trump sell a dream.  Lower taxes, job creation, wealth for anyone willing to work for it.  But as American workers at places like Carrier are finding out, dreams and reality are quite different.  If you missed the news Carrier has let go of hundreds of workers in the past year despite Trump touting how he was going to save the jobs there.  (Story Here)

Government is complicated, its not simply like running a business, although there is a business component.  But running ministries like the public education system are not measured in profits and losses.  Police are there to enforce laws, not to deliver dividend cheques to shareholders.  

What will happen in June?  Its still too early for me to make a call, but if I was forced to make a prediction right now I'd say we're heading towards a minority situation at Queen's Park with the PCs having the most seats.

And that might not be the worst outcome.