If Ontario's PCs really want to win, then Elliott is the obvious choice.....

Well Ontario PCs, I'm in.  I finally received my leadership voting information in today's mail and thanks to an on-line tutorial I was able to verify myself.  Now all that's left is to wait for my ballot and to exercise my digital franchise.  

Its been quite the journey.

I signed up for a party membership after the CTV hatchet job on Patrick Brown.  It was fluorescent yellow journalism at its best. My intention at that time was to vote for Christine Elliott.  But then Patrick jumped into the race and I was firmly behind his bid to take the leadership back.  

However now that he's decided to withdraw his name I find myself coming full circle and I will be making Christine Elliott my first choice.  But it wasn't easy. 

I've shared my thoughts, views and experience with many on social media, and with a limited few in person down at PC Party HQ when Patrick went before the committee charged with green lighting candidates.  And I know that many PB supporters find the prospect of supporting Christine Elliott's bid more than a little problematic given Randy Hillier's support of the former deputy leader.

I get it, its called loyalty and I admire it.  

But for what it is worth I do not think for a second that Christine Elliott had anything to do with Patrick Brown's ouster.  Did others who are now supporting her have anything to do with it?  I think that's very possible, maybe even likely.  During that conference call Patrick Brown found out who his friends were, and they were not on the phone.  

Christine Elliott wasn't on that call either.  

Politics can be dirty and messy.  In local ridings there are frequent battles among members about who will get the nomination, and its not unusual for those who lose to cry foul.  Accusations of payoffs and corruption happen in every party.  Kathleen Wynne just took the witness stand for the same type of thing with the Liberals.  But you don't see the Grits burning their own leader at the stake the way Randy did with Patrick.

I'm not going to mince words, Randy Hillier in my books is a dick wad.  But just because he's supporting Christine Elliott's candidacy, I'm not going to smear her with his crappy reputation.  Even Dick Wads like Randy have supporters, and in a hotly contested leadership race, sometimes you have to deal with Dick Wads.  Have I mentioned that I think Randy Hillier is a Dick Wad?  I have?  Oh, sorry....I'm getting older and am prone to repeating myself.  

The question for me is this.  Who has the best chance of defeating the Wynne Liberals and forming Ontario's next government?  For me the answer is a no brainer, that choice is Christine Elliott.  

My distaste for the way Patrick Brown was treated, and Toby's endorsement of Doug Ford in particular, it had me seriously considering supporting Ford Nation.  But I see Doug's path to victory being a much steeper climb.  I do think Doug could win, but I also see a number of areas where he would be vulnerable with the potential to push potential PC voters over to the NDP or even all the way back to the Wynne Liberals.

Where is Doug Ford vulnerable?  

Firstly there's the 2013 by Globe & Mail article about drug dealing, a report that involved 18 months of research.  At the time Doug said it was a smear, that same claim of "yellow journalism" was made.  But the former Toronto Councillor didn't try to clear his name by taking legal action against the Globe as Patrick is now doing with CTV.  That to me says that the reporting is almost certainly accurate.

If you haven't seen it here's the link, its still out there:  

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/globe-investigation-the-ford-familys-history-with-drug-dealing/article12153014/

I know some will say....Okay, hash...like so what, pot is about to be made legal anyway.  And there is a point to that.  I myself know that a hot plate and a couple stainless steel knives have uses other than meal preparation, and that a hole in a 2 litre pop bottle can lead to a severe case of the munchies.  

But criminal activity is criminal activity, and I don't think everyone is so forgiving.  Even with wacky tabacky being made legal a lot of Ontarians are still anti-weed.

Then there's the issue of women's reproductive choice.  I understand the importance of Social Conservatives within the larger PC party, and Doug's willingness to listen is commendable  Patrick Brown courted the SoCon vote and it was a big reason why he won the leadership three years ago.  But having issues like abortion, sex ed and marriage rights on the front burner during an election campaign is a good recipe for finding yourself in the opposition benches again.  

Its another vulnerability in my eyes.  Already websites like Press Progress are reporting Ford's willingness to open up these issues, and I see it as a very real threat during a province wide election. I believe that this could be the PC's achilles heel.  Here's a link to a recent story they did about Doug Ford's willingness to push the SoCon agenda:

http://pressprogress.ca/doug-ford-says-he-would-welcome-legislation-giving-parents-the-power-to-block-a-teens-abortion/

Is Christine Elliott vulnerable?

The only potential knock I see is that she agreed to take on the role of Patient Ombudsman from the Wynne Liberals.  However given Ms Elliott's passion for health care I also see that as an asset.  In fact I think the former deputy leader will get a lot of marks from non-partisan Ontario voters for taking on the role.  

The Bottom Line

The blog posting before this one included my prediction of a second ballot victory for Doug Ford.  I'm not going to back off that opinion because I understand the appeal.  Doug Ford has a strong "everyman" Homer Simpsonesque quality that a lot of party members identify with.  My fear is that success with party members won't translate into broad based success with Ontario voters.  

That's not to say I don't think a Doug Ford led PC party couldn't still win a majority mandate, I still think its possible.  I just think it would mean having to "come up the middle" much the same way Bob Rae's NDP won their majority in 1990, with the NDP/Liberal vote splitting pretty much evenly so that PC candidates could win with 35% of the vote in a lot of ridings.  

It could happen, but I think its fraught with risks.  With Christine Elliott I don't see the PCs needing the vote to split perfectly, I think she'll easily take 44% of the popular vote and win a solid majority mandate.

Not long to wait now in any case. 

Ontario's Progressive Conservatives - Let's Get Ready To RUMBLE!!!

Okay Ontario Conservative party members and watchers, the moment you've been waiting for is almost here.  Who will come out on top in this winner take all cage match and go on to face against Kathleen Wynne?  

• The leader of the Liberal NWO. 
• Ontario's Queen of Hydro, 
• The Sultan of Corruption, 
• The Lesbian who's a political Champion? 

Here are your contenders.

She's a former MPP and the winner of three local elections in her riding.  A former deputy party leader and most recently an appointee to the position of Patient Ombudsman by the current Wynne government.  Ladies and gentleman give it up for.....THE INSIDER!!!

Now entering the ring in the black trunks.  He's a former Toronto City Councillor and a reputed high school drug dealer.  When he's not in the political ring he keeps himself busy looking over the business his Daddy left him.  He's a big time CONSERVATIVE but a lightweight progressive who will never march in a Gay Pride anything.  Let's give a big Ontario cheer, he's DOUG THE THUG from FORD NATIOOOOOOOOOON!!!

Simmer down, simmer down.  Going into my soft falsetto voice now. 

She's the daughter of a former Prime Minister who's never been in the political ring before.  But don't be fooled folks she's no lightweight, she's raised more money than any other candidate, ringing in over $700,000 in a matter of weeks.  She's a Canadian and an American who is the only contender who is nominated in her riding, by acclimation no less....some say Patrick Brown had a hand in that but others say no.  She's on a leave of absence from her regular job because she thought it would be fun to give politics a spin.  Please keep it dignified, soft clapping only for.....THE PRINCESS!!!

And finally the rank outsider, someone so obscure she doesn't even have a Wiki page.  But don't let that fool you, she trains by ripping wind turbines out of the ground with just one hand.  She will single handily send Justin Trudeau running like a frightened little girl if he dares impose a carbon tax.  And she'll do all this while protecting Ontario students from learning anything about sex in the classroom.  Our final combatant entering the ring is, THE CHRISTIAN CRUSADER!!!

The referee for the evening will be interim leader Vic "Feel Her Up" Fedeli. Ladies I suggest you keep a close eye on his hands.  

Ahhh, that was fun.  

But now on to the serious job of trying to predict who will win this little political free for all.  Its not going to happen on a single ballot, of that I'm certain.  After that first ballot though I expect the order to be Ford with a sizable lead, followed by Elliott, Mulroney and Allen in that order.  #FordNation did yeoman's work in signing people up to memberships, he's the only candidate who had a large team ready to spring into action.

That's my prediction for the 1st ballot, barring CTV all of a sudden coming out with another poorly researched story.  

With Patrick Brown's ouster the big question is where will most of his support go, he was reportedly at about 28% according to polls.  And I think it will break down in Ford's favour....a few votes here and there for Elliot, Allen and Mulroney but nothing significant.  Patrick's supporters, I'd say the majority of them, believe that party insiders had a big hand in the way he was taken out, and I see that hurting Elliott and not Ford.

If I had to guess percentages I'd say 50% of Patrick's support will go to Ford, 25% to Elliott and 20% to Allen.  Given that Caroline Mulroney's younger brother works for CTV, that hurts her ability to attract any significant support among Brown's base in my opinion.

#FordNation workers bringing in members, and disaffected supporters of Patrick Brown will have Doug wearing the PC championship belt when its all over.

Patrick made huge inroads with Ontario's diverse Indian communities.  My gut tells me that by and large they'll be more comfortable with Elliott's politics, but I'm not so naive as to think that they all will be comfortable voting for a woman.  And then to use Stephen Harper's old dog whistle, I think "older stock" Canadians will side mostly with Ford.  

I'm predicting that Ford will have a significant lead after the first round, somewhere over 40%, and that all it will take is the support of Granic Allen's voters to put him over the top, that's where I see her votes moving for their 2nd choice.  Mulroney's undoubtedly will swing heavy to Ms. Elliott but I don't think it will be enough.  

My final ballot prediction, Ford 55% to Elliott 45%.

What happens in June?  

I'm sure the Wynne Liberal war room is planning strategy for all possible outcomes, but I'm guessing the prospect of Ford leading the PCs is as close to a dream come true as they can hope for.  Granic Allen would be their first choice I'm sure, but most Ontarians don't even attend church regularly and her chances of changing the name of the gas tax to a carbon tax, there's no hope.   I'm sure even some of her die hard supporters know it....She has no more chance than that kid who promised 3 hour lunches when he ran for class president.

Its gonna be fun to watch.

Why does Vic "Feel Her Up Fedeli" still have a job? Bombshell news...

Welcome to the matrix my friends.  

I've never actually seen any of the Matrix movies from start to finish, but if I understand the premise correctly the idea is that what we, "the sheep" see as reality, that its all really just an illusion, designed to control and manipulate us.  

Independent minded Conservative party members may want to start asking some hard questions after I drop this little known about bombshell.  Do note my use of the words, "independent minded".  I am well aware that a lot of people simply pay attention to the news that they're told is important, and then mimic the talking points they've heard repeated over and over.  

Basically they're like the Storm Troopers in 'Star Wars - A New Hope', who totally miss what they're after because "these aren't the droids you're looking for".  A little wave of the mass media hand and their capacity for critical thinking goes to mush.

Enough pop culture references.  What's the news?

Allegations that interim leader Vic Fedeli sexually harassed a female worker at Queen's Park.  The accusation is anonymous, which is all that's needed we're told to completely necessitate blowing up Ontario's political landscape.  And these allegations include an email from an Eastern Ontario area lawyer.  Again, this isn't an allegation of misconduct, this is actual workplace harassment we're talking about.

https://www.thepostmillennial.com/allegations-sexual-harassment-interim-pc-leader-vic-fedeli/

This is out there, and it is being talked about....but nothing from the pablum news outfits most of the great unwashed rely on for their information.  

Thoroughly discredited and totally debunked allegations about Patrick Brown are still part of the daily news cycle.  But the current leader of Ontario's Progressive Conservative Party gets a pass?  Interesting to say the least.  

So CTV sees fit to air unsubstantiated and uncorroborated allegations about Patrick Brown without even bothering to disclose heinous and blatant breaches of journalistic ethics.  But a man who's been accused of basically feeling up a woman working at Queen's Park is completely ignored.

You can ask why, or you can just go back to watching Lisa LaFlamme and her yellow news organization totally destroy another innocent victim.  

The rabbitt hole of social media sites like Twitter are suggesting a possible settlement and non-disclosure agreement.  So how about it MSM, time to do some digging maybe? 

Some of the sheep want to know.

Conservatives need to rally around something simple - Tax cuts

Its Sunday, and I am in a really good mood.  I'm not able to make it to Church every week due to my work schedule, but today was not one of those days.  I'm able to attend about two out of every three Sundays.  Today the hymns were upbeat, the fellowship wonderful and the sermon was fantastic.  

The readings were from Genesis and Matthew, about the creation story and John The Baptist.  About God's love for His creation and His love for us, His creation.  

We had a guest Pastor today, one who retired from leading our Church a number of years back, long before I joined the congregation.  His sermon was fantastic, about how we're constantly being told "you're not good enough".  It starts when we're kids, our parents get mad and say: "Why can't you be good".  The implication is obvious, a child hearing that they're not good, that means they must be bad.  And it doesn't stop when we're kids, it keeps going throughout life, people continually hear that they're not worthy.  

That's the wonderful message of Jesus Christ, that despite what others say...even our parents, deep down in my soul I know that I am worthy, that I am part of a chosen people.  Its a nice message to hear on a Sunday, or any day for that matter.  I asked the Pastor after the service if the sermon was new, or if he'd gone back into the archives for a "best of".  "That one was from 2003 brother", was his answer, "with a little tweaking".

Why am I writing about my Christian faith?  I mean, isn't this a blog about politics?  Its often said that these are the two topics to never discuss, but if I'm going to write about one, I might as well include the other.  

So now that I've covered religion, I'll move onto politics and the role religion often has.

When musing about Conservative politics, taking matters of faith into consideration is not without a fair degree of importance.  A lot of party members are also members of a faith community, and not just the Christian faith.  But my knowledge of Islam, Sikhism, Judaism and other religions isn't sufficient enough to express views on them intelligently so I'll stick to the faith I was brought up in.

Those who've read my previous postings already know that I'm supporting Brown, and I imagine some might be surprised that I'm a Christian.  It shouldn't be surprising to those who already know how divided the Christian Church is among all the different denominations.  

There is a common thread however.  All the Churches I've been to preach from the Holy Bible and acknowledge Jesus as Lord.  That doesn't mean they're all the same however, just as their are varying sects within Judaism and Islam, Christians have differences too. 

What Does Polling Say?

Ontario Conservatives have differences too, tons of them as this race shows.  We have 5 candidates and if the polling that just came out is even remotely accurate, not one single leadership hopeful will have even 30% after the first round of voting.

Its going to come down to second and even third choices.  According to polling numbers being published from Mainstreet Research Brown and Elliott are in a statistical tie (with Elliott ahead by less than a single percentage point) with just over 28% each and Doug Ford third with a bit more than 22%.  

Mulroney and Allen come 4th and 5th with 14 and 6% respectively, that means they'd be the first to drop off.  I consider Caroline Mulroney's supporters to be the most forgiving of Christine Elliott taking a job from Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne.  Given that Brian Mulroney spoke glowingly of Justin Trudeau even before he became the Liberal leader, and is now working for the Liberal government, it makes sense.  

Allen's support I see moving mostly to Ford, which means this is going to be a horse race....

At the end of it all there will be only one leader, and if polling reflects the actual results it will mean that over 70% did not have that person as their first choice.  Patrick Brown is in the hunt, but I think it could very well end up being any one of the three.  

I am hoping that the prospect of an income tax cut in the party's platform will convince enough party members to have Brown, if not first....at least second or third.  Otherwise we'll be seeing Ottawa impose a carbon tax on the province and we'll have to settle for whatever they decide to send back our way.  Railing against the Carbon Tax is good politics, like the candidate for Student Council who promises three hour lunches, its good for posturing.  

I've worked out that the income tax cut proposed in the Party approved Patrick Brown platform, that it would mean over $100 in tax savings for me personally each month.  To bring religion back into this, I guess that makes me guilty of avarice, oh well.  Those unhappy with the new Sex-Ed curriculum could use the money to help pay for the tuition at a private Christian school.    

It still frustrates me that this leadership race is even taking place, it never should have happened except for some yellow journalism by CTV.  For more on this watch Deb Davison's look into the real motivation behind the trumped up allegations:

Happy voting everyone.  Christians should know all about false allegations and the way the mob is typically whipped into a frenzy by groups like the Pharisees who've now moved into the media and decide what and how it is reported.