Quebec's good, bad and ugly or the corrupt the xenophobes and the bankrupt

So what's it gonna be Québec? Will it be the xenophobic Parti Québecois, or perhaps the CAQ with all those candidates who've filed for personal or business bankruptcy? Might you still opt for the devil you know, the Liberals with all the allegations of corruption surrounding them?

I will stick with my prediction of a PQ win with between 60 and 65 seats. And assuming the separatist Québec Solidaire wins the two seats pollsters are expecting, 61 gives the PQ a workable government, if of course QS is ready to lend its support.

I'm prepared to be surprised though, by a surge in either CAQ or Liberal support. Based on polling numbers and the firmness of voting intentions among supporters of the various parties I consider a Liberal minority still a possibility, with an outright win by the CAQ being extremely remote.

If I were making book on the outcome and calculating odds this is how I'd handicap the race.

• PQ minority - 50%
• PQ majority - 30%
• Liberal minority - 10%
• Liberal majority - 5%
• CAQ minority - 3%
• CAQ majority - 2%

After the results are in I will share my experience as a first time voter in a Québec provincial election.

Québec's election winners..Students

Everyone is chiming in with their predictions for tomorrow's vote here in la belle...err province.  At least its still a province for now.

Overwhelmingly the expectation is that Pauline Marois and the PQ will  form either a strong minority or a thin majority.  I concur and predict somewhere between 60 and 65 seats for the Pequistes.  But the Parti Québecois isn't the big winner here, not even close.

Its the students, like it or lump it.

Efforts by the Charest government to increase tuition fees resulted in massive student protests, and in some cases violence.  After repeated attempts at negotiation with a hodgepodge of student unions the Liberal leader finally drew a line in the sand.  Despite reducing the amount of the hike and stretching it out over a longer period of time to mitigate the impact, many students remained defiant.

And they have won.

Pauline Marois has promised she will rescind the increases, going so far as suggesting students not pay their tuition bills until after the election.  And this is at least one promise I expect her and her party to keep.  If not the result would likely be more chaos.

By caving to the street Mme Marois has put both herself and her government at the mercy of mob rule in my opinion.  If her government is forced into some tough decisions that don't sit well with any number of groups, the recipe is now clear, just do what Québec's students did.  Take to the street, block traffic, intimidate and bingo...the PQ government will give in to what you want.

The student strikes and tuition increases were not a major issue in this campaign.  But it says here that going forward this issue and the PQ's handling of it during the campaign and afterwards will demonstrate to Quebecers the kind of government they've elected.

Could allegations of robocalls help Québec Liberals?

The Québec Liberal party is alleging that robocalls have been made in the Québec City area, as well as in Laval near Montreal.

It is being reported that the calls are being made exclusively in English, targeting predominantly French speaking areas.  Voters are being asked to call a phone number, and calling that number results in an answering machine message which basically says, 'thank you for calling the Liberal Party of Quebec...please leave a message.

You can read about here HERE on the Montreal Gazette's site.

Of course robocalls were allegedly used by Conservative supporters during the last federal election.  To say Harper and the Conservatives aren't thought of too kindly in Québec would be grossly understating things.  As Québec Solidaire's Françoise David put it during the first leader's debate. 

"Attacking Harper is easy.  Just about everyone in Québec can't stand him".

Anyone using a strategy linked with the federal conservatives is treading on dangerous ground if you ask me.  Assuming the calls are being generated by opponents of Charest's Liberals, then the most obvious suspects would be supporters of François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec party as I see it.  The CAQ is generally perceived to be a right wing party, although only barely given the heavy tilt to the left of Québec politics.  

I have trouble envisioning it being the PQ, they would have little to gain from my perspective.  Turning voters inclined to vote Liberal  away would only drive them to the CAQ, and Monsieur Legault's party is the only one with any degree of momentum.

It is interesting that the calls are said to be only in English.  With protection and promotion of la langue française being such a hot issue during this campaign, I can see some French speakers being very alarmed at a party using automated calls only in English.

I am wondering though, if the reporting of these calls will generate some sympathy for the embattled Jean Charest and his floundering Liberal Party?  And I don't discount the possibility that perhaps they were employed for that very purpose.  Elections are becoming more and more like wars, and in war the first casualty is often the truth.  

Will Québec plunge Canada into more constitutional wrangling?

We'll know the answer Tuesday night, will Quebecers choose the separatist PQ, take a flyer on the populist CAQ or will they instead opt for the devil they know in Jean Charest and the Liberals.

Right now its looking like the PQ with a razor thin majority based on recent polling.  Even if they fall one or two seats shy of the magic 63 needed, they can likely count on support from the even more strident Québec Solidaire.  While the PQ is unquestionably separatist, QS is even more hard line, separatists on steroids if you will.

I'll have my prediction up on Labour Day.