Thursday, March 12, 2009

Bad Debt, Good Debt, Best Debt? How About...NO DEBT!!!

Debt seems to be something on a lot of people's minds these days, with many thinking about taking on additional obligations due to the low interest environment we're in. Others are more worried about eliminating debt, concerned with the downward trend in the overall economy. Either way attitudes toward borrowing money are changing, so I thought an examination of debt might be of some interest.

Leaving aside the question of the bigger economic picture for the moment, debt can be divided into three basic categories: Bad, Good and Best.

Bad debt is easy to identify, with the degree of "badness" determined by the interest rate. Bad debt can be categorized as any money borrowed for the purchase of something that will decline in value over time. A prime example would be a car loan. Fully financing the purchase of a $25,000 automobile results in an immediate loss of about 10%...within five years the vehicle is worth maybe $10,000 if you're lucky. High interest credit card balances are obviously the worst, with the purchases often related to goods and services with zero residual value.

Good debt by contrast relates to borrowing for the purchase of things that will increase in value over the years. The best example is of course a home purchase. Home ownership is a common goal in Canadian society, and one which makes a lot of sense. It costs money to occupy a residence regardless of whether you rent or own...so why not have that occupancy cost go towards building equity. For many people their home represents their greatest source of wealth, and a retiree with a paid off mortgage has a number of options available should the need for capital arise.

Best debt is a concept that will probably be foreign to some. Like good debt it relates to the borrowing of money for purchases which will increase in value...but with a kicker. With best debt the commodity being purchased qualifies the borrower to write-off the interest expense on the loan. For specifics you need to talk to a financial advisor, but it typically relates to the purchasing of equities such as stocks or even mutual funds.

You may have heard ads talking about 'the tax free mortgage', which relates directly to the concept of 'best debt'. As an example, a person who inherits $25,000 could use the money to pay down a mortgage, then turn around and leverage against the equity in the home to invest in the market...with the interest payments on the loan being tax deductible.

Now that I've covered off the three basic kinds of debt, its important to get a gauge of the general economy. For the overwhelming majority of people, (excepting those who were around in the 1930's) an inflationary environment has been the norm. Inflation encourages people to spend, because over time the money in our pockets decreases in value. Looking for a new car? The one you want will likely cost more next year, and if not next year then certainly the year after that.

While inflation may scare people, its actually a sign of a healthy economy...it encourages the circulation of money, which in turn creates wealth. We've been seeing public sector unions negotiate some pretty sweet contracts recently, in spite of the downturn in the economy. Part of the rationale is an effort by governments to stave off deflation, which is far more devastating to the economy than inflation.

Deflation is something being talked about more and more, and while our gut reaction may be..."Hey GREAT!!! Things are getting cheaper!" it is something we should actually fear. Falling prices discourage economic activity, and decreased economic activity leads to a spiral of job losses. When people fear for their jobs, and when prices are dropping...people hang on to their cash. While prices are dropping the value of the coin in your pocket actually inflates, its an inverse relationship. That $100 bill in your pocket will be worth more next week or next year than it is right now, so hang on to it.

So now its time to look at our crystal balls, tea leaves...or to consult the trusty Magic 8 Ball. If you're of the opinion that the economy is going to continue struggling for some time, then it isn't a question of bad versus good versus best debt. In periods of deflation the best option is NO DEBT.

Almost every expert and guru out there...they're all predicting that we'll eventually see things turn around and that growth with return to the economy. The question though is when. I know there are people out there anxious to jump in while prices are depressed, with an eye toward catching the bottom and quite possibly making a killing, be it in the stock market or with a home purchase.

I am going to suggest that the best strategy right now is to eliminate as much debt as possible, and/or saving as much as possible. That way when the ultimate decision is made to invest, the need to borrow will be, if not eliminated...at least reduced. One might decide that now is that time, and I wouldn't disparage anyone bold enough to make that call. But if the money being used to dive into the market is borrowed, and if this deflationary cycle continues...then there's serious potential for dire results to one's net worth.

The bull is hiding right now, hopefully he won't be away too long.

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Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Desperate Real Estate Industry Says Now The Time To Buy...

Canada's battered real estate market got a jolt of good "news" today, in the form of a press release from Remax...at least that's the spin they're putting on recent industry numbers to boost confidence, suggesting the current market is ideal for 1st time home buyers to get off the fence. I heard about it this morning while driving into work and listening to 680 News.

Included in the radio report was the fact that home listings have jumped 17% in the GTA, and while listings are great for agents...they're not much good if there aren't sufficient buyers to soak up the supply. With all the recently reported job losses it stands to reason that there could very well be a glut of properties on the market in the coming months. And if the economy and job market are forcing people to sell, its reasonable to expect prices to dip significantly.

Talk to a broker and its always a perfect time to get into stocks, ask a hair stylist or barber if you need a trim and you'll likely be told 'definitely'...and ask a Real Estate agent if 'now' is the time to buy a house and the answer will almost assuredly be yes, whether the market is up or down.

Self serving "news" from industry insiders should be taken with a huge grain of salt. The same radio station has been airing Public Service Announcements proclaiming that the automotive industry employs thousands...and they're all saying 'now is the time to buy a new car'.
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Garth Turner, a former maverick MP as well as an author and market commentator has published a new book called "After The Crash". He was interviewed recently on TVO and had some interesting insights on the real estate market...insights that fly in the face of today's Remax "news". He actually says renting might be the best strategy for some, given the uncertainty in the overall economy.

Landlords are offering substantial incentives to entice potential renters, including free rent for a month or more, as well as paint jobs and renovations. For people concerned with sinking a substantial amount of cash into a shaky housing market this strikes me as good advice. The consensus opinion on the overall economy is that we're nowhere near the bottom yet, dissenting opinions from certain parties with vested interests notwithstanding.

The interview lasts about a half hour, I suggest giving it a listen when you have the time:

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Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Federal Politicians Should Adopt CAW Cuts...For Themselves

Canadian Auto Workers just renegotiated their contract with GM. The new deal would see them making significant concessions in a bid to help GM qualify for much needed government bailout money. Whereas public sector employees are typically seeing annual increases of 2-3% over the next three to four years, the CAW has negotiated a wage freeze until 2012 with no cost of living increases. Additionally workers would lose a $1,700 annual bonus and a week of paid vacation time. The deal also calls for workers to contribute more for their health care benefits, and that includes pensioners.

Some are arguing that it isn't enough, with the Toronto Star reporting that earlier this week Tory MPs on a parliamentary committee were "ridiculing" CAW President Ken Lawenza and economist Jim Stanford for the union's wages. Obviously GM is in serious trouble, with revenues insufficient to handle expenses...hence the need for the bailout. Its a situation politicians should understand well, given that Ottawa has just committed to spending almost $100 billion more than revenues will support over the next several years. The actual deficit figure is projected at $84.9 billion over 5 years, but with Jim "Mr. Magoo" Flaherty providing the projections...well pardon me for adding a bit of a cushion to Enron Jim's numbers.

Seeing as GM's fiscal state so closely mirrors that of our federal government, to say nothing of the provinces...perhaps our government could show some real leadership on this issue? How much do-re-mi are federal MPs willing to forgo in wages and benefits to help Canada weather this economic storm? Would members of parliament be willing to freeze their wages for the next 3 years? How about cutting back on travel expenses?

We have 308 MPs on the federal payroll. GM has cut their labour force by about 3,000, going from 10,000 to 7,000. Why not reduce the number of seats in The House by 10%? I'm sure we could get by with 270 or so MPs. We could cut back on pensions paid to retired politicians as well, and pare the number of Senators.
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GM workers do earn decent cake, no question. Their hourly rate of around $34 per hour equates to an annual salary of about $70k without taking any overtime into account. Still its not even close to what a backbencher in Ottawa makes, about $150,000 with additional compensation for committee work and a slew of perks. Some bristle at how well auto workers are paid, for a job that requires no special education or training...similar in a lot of ways to politicians. There are no special degrees or certification needed to vie for a seat in Ottawa either.

This global economic crisis is claiming a lot of victims, with hardly any industry or market segment being spared. About the only growth industry left is politics. Ottawa is planning on racking up a major debt load as it continues business as usual for those employed in the industry that is Canadian government. Perhaps its time for Stephen Harper to lead by example. It would seem the truly conservative thing to do.

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Monday, March 9, 2009

Harper Getting Hit From All Sides Now...

Conservative fortunes under Stephen Harper seem to be tracking the broader markets. On a day when both the DOW and TSX closed lower yet again, Harper and the Tories were dealt yet another blow, this time in the form of an Op-Ed piece in the Toronto Sun.

Michael Taube, a former speech writer for Stephen Harper, penned a guest column in the Sun today entitled "Harper driving Conservatives the wrong way". Among his many criticisms was this little snippet:


No wonder Stevie is so anxious to force an election, provided he can pin the blame for it on the opposition Liberals. The Conservatives still hold key advantages over the Liberals should a snap election come to pass. Their organization is stronger at the moment, but more importantly they enjoy a substantial advantage in terms of their election war chest.
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Ironic that Harper's Conservatives came to power amid voter anger over Liberal waste and arrogance primarily under Jean Chretien. Now it is Harper who is trying to force an election over what amounts to a 3 billion dollar slush fund, money he wishes to toss around with zero accountability until after the fact.

Personally I think Harper is trying to be too clever by half. He knows Canadians don't want another election, so he is looking for any 'poison pill' he can find in hopes his government will be defeated. I'm sure his thinking is that with the $$$ advantage the Conservatives hold, that they would be able to control the message....And that message would be, "this election brought to you by the Liberals".

If it comes down to a vote on the Harper slush fund Ignatieff might do well to avoid taking the bait. The Liberal Party is still not battle ready in my opinion. While Dion appeared to be far more ideological in his approach, Ignatieff seems much more pragmatic. Perhaps it is best for the Liberals to sit back and wait for more friendly fire from Conservative papers like the Toronto Sun to do in Harper and the Conservatives.

That would leave Harper with a task similar to what McCain had with the Republicans in 2008, fighting on two fronts. Campaigning on one side to keep the choir singing, while at the same time trying to expand on that shrinking base of support.


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