Today's Montreal Gazette features an op/ed piece by L. Ian MacDonald under the headline:
Summertime poll has bad news for Liberals
The poll referenced is the one done for CanWest by Ipsos showing the Conservatives teetering on majority territory. Its not the Decima poll (with twice the sampling size) that shows the Libs and Cons in the same statistical tie they've been in all summer.
Using the smaller and ergo less reliable poll, the writer paints a dismal picture for Liberal prospects in a possible election. Projecting the numbers out regionally, the author concludes that forcing an election at this time would be folly.
Well...opinions are not unlike another certain orifice, or so goes the old saw, everyone has one. Something I like to do when confronting a strongly held "opinion" that borders on advocacy is to check out the person offering it up.
In this case its L. Ian MacDonald, a gentleman whose website refers to him as; a columnist, author, editor, broadcaster -- and speaker.
Listed among numerous accomplishments is that he was a speech writer for Brian "Brown Bag" Mulroney from 1985 to 1988. Later he served in Washington as Minister of Public Affairs at the Canadian embassy. Needless to say, this is a man used to dealing in politics...with a decidedly Conservative bent.
Obviously the Ipsos poll is music to the ears of Conservatives, and MacDonald relies on it heavily in formulating his conclusion that Harper's summer has been very good while Iggy's has been very bad. But that poll was conducted from Aug 18-20 and surveyed just 1,001 Canadians.
The Decima poll on the other hand, the one showing the Liberals with a slight advantage nationally, took place over a longer period, from Aug 13-23. And its basically double the size with 2,000 respondents.
Of course CanWest paid good money for the poll showing Harper on the cusp of majority support, so its only logical for Conservative minded writers to jump all over it. But if I'm Michael Ignatieff I'd be very wary about taking the musings of a former Mulroney hack to heart. I'm sure Stephen Harper would prefer to avoid an election call anytime soon, anything short of a majority win next time around could spell the end of his time in the PMO.
Summertime poll has bad news for Liberals
The poll referenced is the one done for CanWest by Ipsos showing the Conservatives teetering on majority territory. Its not the Decima poll (with twice the sampling size) that shows the Libs and Cons in the same statistical tie they've been in all summer.
Using the smaller and ergo less reliable poll, the writer paints a dismal picture for Liberal prospects in a possible election. Projecting the numbers out regionally, the author concludes that forcing an election at this time would be folly.
Well...opinions are not unlike another certain orifice, or so goes the old saw, everyone has one. Something I like to do when confronting a strongly held "opinion" that borders on advocacy is to check out the person offering it up.
In this case its L. Ian MacDonald, a gentleman whose website refers to him as; a columnist, author, editor, broadcaster -- and speaker.
Listed among numerous accomplishments is that he was a speech writer for Brian "Brown Bag" Mulroney from 1985 to 1988. Later he served in Washington as Minister of Public Affairs at the Canadian embassy. Needless to say, this is a man used to dealing in politics...with a decidedly Conservative bent.
Obviously the Ipsos poll is music to the ears of Conservatives, and MacDonald relies on it heavily in formulating his conclusion that Harper's summer has been very good while Iggy's has been very bad. But that poll was conducted from Aug 18-20 and surveyed just 1,001 Canadians.
The Decima poll on the other hand, the one showing the Liberals with a slight advantage nationally, took place over a longer period, from Aug 13-23. And its basically double the size with 2,000 respondents.
Of course CanWest paid good money for the poll showing Harper on the cusp of majority support, so its only logical for Conservative minded writers to jump all over it. But if I'm Michael Ignatieff I'd be very wary about taking the musings of a former Mulroney hack to heart. I'm sure Stephen Harper would prefer to avoid an election call anytime soon, anything short of a majority win next time around could spell the end of his time in the PMO.
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