I remember back to the Quebec referendum of 1980, when Quebecers first had the opportunity to decide whether or not they wished to follow a sovereign path. The results strongly favoured the status-quo, with the "NO" side winning almost 60% of the vote. At the time I was only a teenager, but still I had a certain affinity for the separatist movement. Not because I disliked Quebec, in fact I've always loved it, but rather because the creation of a new nation state held a certain romantic appeal.
By the time the next referendum rolled around I was decidedly in favour of Quebec remaining as a province within a united Canada. I still had some empathy for the separatists, and had learned much more about Quebec's unique history. My change in attitude however was more a reflection of the cost that would accompany the break up of this country. I viewed it as being similar to a divorce, and I feared that a "YES" vote would bring incredible acrimony, and with acrimony comes both pettiness and spite. I could see English Canada trying to make separation as costly as possible for Quebec, with Quebecers doing the same to the rest of Canada.
The results of that second referendum were incredibly close, with the Federalists winning by less than one single percentage point. I had thought that after the first failure, that the separatist movement would lose steam...like a lot of people. How wrong that thinking was. I'd considered the separatist movement to be largely the domain of the young, unconcerned with the economic costs associated. I figured that as time marched on, with younger people making up a smaller and smaller percentage of the voting population, that the notion of a sovereign Quebec would fade to black.
I've since however changed my mind. I now view separation as merely a question of when, not if. Quebec is truly a unique province, with differences from the rest of the country that extend beyond mere language. Assuming separation does eventually come to pass, I'm hopeful that we'll be able to part as friends...and that we maintain friendly relations. Who knows, I might even move there at some point...there's a lot about Quebec's culture and society that I find preferable as compared to what exists in English Canada. Besides, I put a lot of time and effort into achieving a measure of bilingualism, so why not put it to good use and perfect it.
Our countrymen and women in la belle province are far more liberal than are people in any other part of the country by and large. Union membership is highest per-capita in Quebec, and their views on things like law and order are far more liberal as well. While most in English Canada hardly batted an eyelash when Stephen Harper's Conservatives cut funding to arts and culture, it was French Canada that got its back up and denied the Tories their coveted majority.
Change is typically something people tend to avoid, better the devil you know and all that. But Quebecers came within a whisker of endorsing a radical change back in 1995...making huge gains over the results from 1980. Obviously our Quebecois and Quebecoise friends are getting more comfortable with the notion of Quebec as a sovereign nation. Considering its geographic size, resources and population, Quebec obviously has all the necessary components for a successful country.
And if my prognostication proves accurate there will probably even be some celebrating in places like Calgary among die hard Conservative supporters. No longer having to focus on gaining votes among Quebecers, Tory prospects would skyrocket and totally change the dynamics of the political landscape in this country.
You know what...on more careful consideration I will almost certainly move to Quebec if they separate, especially if Stephen Harper and his ilk are still around. Or maybe those of us who are both progressive and more liberal in our attitudes...maybe we could join Quebec, then we could all separate together.
By the time the next referendum rolled around I was decidedly in favour of Quebec remaining as a province within a united Canada. I still had some empathy for the separatists, and had learned much more about Quebec's unique history. My change in attitude however was more a reflection of the cost that would accompany the break up of this country. I viewed it as being similar to a divorce, and I feared that a "YES" vote would bring incredible acrimony, and with acrimony comes both pettiness and spite. I could see English Canada trying to make separation as costly as possible for Quebec, with Quebecers doing the same to the rest of Canada.
The results of that second referendum were incredibly close, with the Federalists winning by less than one single percentage point. I had thought that after the first failure, that the separatist movement would lose steam...like a lot of people. How wrong that thinking was. I'd considered the separatist movement to be largely the domain of the young, unconcerned with the economic costs associated. I figured that as time marched on, with younger people making up a smaller and smaller percentage of the voting population, that the notion of a sovereign Quebec would fade to black.
I've since however changed my mind. I now view separation as merely a question of when, not if. Quebec is truly a unique province, with differences from the rest of the country that extend beyond mere language. Assuming separation does eventually come to pass, I'm hopeful that we'll be able to part as friends...and that we maintain friendly relations. Who knows, I might even move there at some point...there's a lot about Quebec's culture and society that I find preferable as compared to what exists in English Canada. Besides, I put a lot of time and effort into achieving a measure of bilingualism, so why not put it to good use and perfect it.
Our countrymen and women in la belle province are far more liberal than are people in any other part of the country by and large. Union membership is highest per-capita in Quebec, and their views on things like law and order are far more liberal as well. While most in English Canada hardly batted an eyelash when Stephen Harper's Conservatives cut funding to arts and culture, it was French Canada that got its back up and denied the Tories their coveted majority.
Change is typically something people tend to avoid, better the devil you know and all that. But Quebecers came within a whisker of endorsing a radical change back in 1995...making huge gains over the results from 1980. Obviously our Quebecois and Quebecoise friends are getting more comfortable with the notion of Quebec as a sovereign nation. Considering its geographic size, resources and population, Quebec obviously has all the necessary components for a successful country.
And if my prognostication proves accurate there will probably even be some celebrating in places like Calgary among die hard Conservative supporters. No longer having to focus on gaining votes among Quebecers, Tory prospects would skyrocket and totally change the dynamics of the political landscape in this country.
You know what...on more careful consideration I will almost certainly move to Quebec if they separate, especially if Stephen Harper and his ilk are still around. Or maybe those of us who are both progressive and more liberal in our attitudes...maybe we could join Quebec, then we could all separate together.
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There's a practical problem, however. Under the terms of the Clarity Act, separation requires a Constitutional amendment. Which means that every other province would have to agree to let Quebec go. I don't see that happening, for sheer vindictiveness if nothing else ("screw you! we won't let you go!"). So, the options are to amend the Clarity Act -- and Quebec doesn't have a powerful enough voice in the federal parliament to get that going -- or a revolution -- which would probably lead to a counterrevolution amongst those Quebecois who don't want to separate (not to mention being extremely difficult to pull off in practical terms).
I think you're right that Quebec leans far more to the left than the rest of Canada (with a libertarian streak I enjoy). BC has the reputation of being way out there, but they're, in my experience, only slightly to the left of centrist/centre-right Ontario.
However, Quebec seems to have chosen not to exert that influence more broadly. Rather than voting for a party federally that could swing the whole country in a direction they'd appreciate, they vote for a party that is explicitly denounced by the PM -- and, IIRC, the opposition leader. This sort of insularity strikes many, I think, as a form of self-righteousness, hence the often angry reactions to the suggestion of Quebec separation. I'm not sure that's a correct read on the situation, or even a reasonable one. But it is odd to complain about Canada while refraining from doing anything to help it become a better place.
I doubt Quebec will leave Canada for the reason that their population are getting older, as you mentioned. These aging baby-boomers cannot afford for their pensions and RRSPs to be disrupted by secession.
This is shown through their declining percentage of the popular vote. It was the sponsorship scandal that brought their huge increase in seats in 04, and the arts funding cuts that stopped them from falling any lower than they have.
It seems that aging Quebecquois are not voting for separatist parties as much as before. so it is doubtful they will separate any time soon.
And thank goodness for that, otherwise Harper would probably have a majority.
Population-wise, the "Oui" side is getting smaller, not larger. Even since '95, allophones have increased as a portion of the population from 9 percent to 11 percent, and they're predicted to keep going up. Allophones almost always vote no on separation.
Yeah, the Bloc keeps earning seats during the annual elections we seem to have now, but I don't think that proves that separatists are gaining strength. I think it just means that the other parties have diluted themselves. If a referendum comes up again, the Libs, tories, and others will all vote no. I think the ship sailed in 1995, and demographically any referendum loses.
I don't think separation will ever take place. The arrogance of the separatist elite is giving way to an intelligent egalitarianism that knows how to coexist in even as uneasy an alliance as French and English Canada. I grew up an anglophone in Quebec in the 1960's and 1970's. We survived the PQ's early years bruised but intact. We survived the FLQ. We survived the 1980 and 1995 referendum votes and remained part of Canada.
I think 1995 was pivotal because of the 'money and the ethnic vote' bigotry that was finally exposed. Separation was never about wanting to be a unique entity. It was and still is about bigoted race- and linguistic hatred. The separatist movement is no more about the common man than the Russian revolution was. And we know where that ended up.
Fortunately, cooler heads and more educated thought is likely to prevail, and separation for Quebec will go into the history of Canada as a bad idea that never went anywhere. Canadians are just smarter than that.
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It will happen sooner or late because of the difference in opinion about what way we want to see the country go. See the last federal election results...
Federalism is doomed to fail.
We can look at our southern neighbors for a nice example of a nation that is too big and too polarized to be efficiently governable. Their policies totally fail because they have to make too many compromises for them to pass. I hope we do separate before we end up in an impasse like them.
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