Wednesday, February 28, 2018

Ontario's Progressive Conservatives - Let's Get Ready To RUMBLE!!!

Okay Ontario Conservative party members and watchers, the moment you've been waiting for is almost here.  Who will come out on top in this winner take all cage match and go on to face against Kathleen Wynne?  
  • The leader of the Liberal NWO. 
  • Ontario's Queen of Hydro, 
  • The Sultan of Corruption, 
  • The Lesbian who's a political Champion? 
Here are your contenders.

She's a former MPP and the winner of three local elections in her riding.  A former deputy party leader and most recently an appointee to the position of Patient Ombudsman by the current Wynne government.  Ladies and gentleman give it up for.....THE INSIDER!!!

Now entering the ring in the black trunks.  He's a former Toronto City Councillor and a reputed high school drug dealer.  When he's not in the political ring he keeps himself busy looking over the business his Daddy left him.  He's a big time CONSERVATIVE but a lightweight progressive who will never march in a Gay Pride anything.  Let's give a big Ontario cheer, he's DOUG THE THUG from FORD NATIOOOOOOOOOON!!!

Simmer down, simmer down.  Going into my soft falsetto voice now. 

She's the daughter of a former Prime Minister who's never been in the political ring before.  But don't be fooled folks she's no lightweight, she's raised more money than any other candidate, ringing in over $700,000 in a matter of weeks.  She's a Canadian and an American who is the only contender who is nominated in her riding, by acclimation no less....some say Patrick Brown had a hand in that but others say no.  She's on a leave of absence from her regular job because she thought it would be fun to give politics a spin.  Please keep it dignified, soft clapping only for.....THE PRINCESS!!!

And finally the rank outsider, someone so obscure she doesn't even have a Wiki page.  But don't let that fool you, she trains by ripping wind turbines out of the ground with just one hand.  She will single handily send Justin Trudeau running like a frightened little girl if he dares impose a carbon tax.  And she'll do all this while protecting Ontario students from learning anything about sex in the classroom.  Our final combatant entering the ring is, THE CHRISTIAN CRUSADER!!!

The referee for the evening will be interim leader Vic "Feel Her Up" Fedeli. Ladies I suggest you keep a close eye on his hands.  

Ahhh, that was fun.  

But now on to the serious job of trying to predict who will win this little political free for all.  Its not going to happen on a single ballot, of that I'm certain.  After that first ballot though I expect the order to be Ford with a sizable lead, followed by Elliott, Mulroney and Allen in that order.  #FordNation did yeoman's work in signing people up to memberships, he's the only candidate who had a large team ready to spring into action.

That's my prediction for the 1st ballot, barring CTV all of a sudden coming out with another poorly researched story.  

With Patrick Brown's ouster the big question is where will most of his support go, he was reportedly at about 28% according to polls.  And I think it will break down in Ford's favour....a few votes here and there for Elliot, Allen and Mulroney but nothing significant.  Patrick's supporters, I'd say the majority of them, believe that party insiders had a big hand in the way he was taken out, and I see that hurting Elliott and not Ford.

If I had to guess percentages I'd say 50% of Patrick's support will go to Ford, 25% to Elliott and 20% to Allen.  Given that Caroline Mulroney's younger brother works for CTV, that hurts her ability to attract any significant support among Brown's base in my opinion.

#FordNation workers bringing in members, and disaffected supporters of Patrick Brown will have Doug wearing the PC championship belt when its all over.

Patrick made huge inroads with Ontario's diverse Indian communities.  My gut tells me that by and large they'll be more comfortable with Elliott's politics, but I'm not so naive as to think that they all will be comfortable voting for a woman.  And then to use Stephen Harper's old dog whistle, I think "older stock" Canadians will side mostly with Ford.  

I'm predicting that Ford will have a significant lead after the first round, somewhere over 40%, and that all it will take is the support of Granic Allen's voters to put him over the top, that's where I see her votes moving for their 2nd choice.  Mulroney's undoubtedly will swing heavy to Ms. Elliott but I don't think it will be enough.  

My final ballot prediction, Ford 55% to Elliott 45%.

What happens in June?  

I'm sure the Wynne Liberal war room is planning strategy for all possible outcomes, but I'm guessing the prospect of Ford leading the PCs is as close to a dream come true as they can hope for.  Granic Allen would be their first choice I'm sure, but most Ontarians don't even attend church regularly and her chances of changing the name of the gas tax to a carbon tax, there's no hope.   I'm sure even some of her die hard supporters know it....She has no more chance than that kid who promised 3 hour lunches when he ran for class president.

Its gonna be fun to watch.

No comments: