The Politics of a Pandemic - Why governments can't admit they overreacted

Let's travel back in time, not far, just to early March 2020.  It probably seems a lifetime ago however given all that's happened in the interceding 3+ months.  

As information was coming out of China and Italy about the novel coronavirus, the Imperial College of London published a research paper authored by their Coronavirus Response Team.  It was a scary report.  The ICL had modeled what would happen in the United States and Great Britain if the virus was allowed to spread unchecked.  

Predictions of 2+ million dead in the United States with critical care space in hospitals being exceeded many times over.  Even with Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI) 1+ million were forecast to die.  And that was assuming that every patient in need of critical care would be able to receive it.  If you would like to read the actual report, here it is. 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9.pdf

While no modelling was done for Canada the report said that other western countries could expect proportionate levels of mortality with some allowance for population age and health care capacity.  Doing a simple back of the napkin calculation that would mean roughly 200,000 Canadians dying.  Even with NPIs it was forecast that the demand for critical care space in hospitals would be exceeded many times over, and that projections (for Canada) of around 100K dying with NPIs was still based on everyone needing critical care receiving it.

Canada was facing nothing short of a catastrophe.  In my province of Ontario the already underfunded and overburdened health care system was going to be overrun with sick and dying people.  Even if NPIs were successful doctors and nurses would be making life and death triage decisions, picking out who would be left to die.  

If the report was credible, and in the world of medical science you don't get any more credible than the Imperial College of London, then governments had to react and difficult decisions had to be made.  Life and death decisions.  And those decisions were made, the only developed western country that did not believe the ICL assumptions and modelling was Sweden.  

Elderly patients were moved out of hospitals and into Long Term Care facilities.  Patients awaiting surgeries deemed "elective" had their procedures indefinitely delayed, including those in need of life saving operations.  Back on April 30th Ontario's Ministry of Health estimated that 35 people had already died because of cardiac operations being indefinitely postponed, a number that is sure to keep climbing higher and higher.  Cancer screenings were also cancelled, eliminating the most vital tool when it comes to surviving cancer, early detection.  

Those are hard decisions.  Sacrificing people by cancelling procedures like bypass surgery and eliminating life saving cancer screenings.  But that was nothing compared to the numbers we would see dying from Covid-19.  These were esteemed experts talking and Ontario listened to the high priests of medical science and made the hard decisions to free up space in our hospitals.

The hard decisions didn't stop there.  Over 1 million Ontarians were put out of work and another 1+ million saw their hours reduced.  Job loss and financial stress can be devastating to marriages and children, but another hard choice was made to declare the sale of booze and weed as essential.  The decision to leave the LCBO open was because of dependency issues, we couldn't have our overwhelmed hospitals dealing with DeTox patients while swamped with Covid-19 patients who were going to be dying waiting for space in the ICU.

Schools closed, churches shuttered, in person support services for the mentally ill and other vulnerable people, gone.  Everyone told to stay home, a simple act of walking in the park or shooting hoops alone could bring hundreds of dollars in fines.  THIS WAS SERIOUS!!!  I don't think its a stretch to compare government action with Noah building the ark, a hard rain was coming and our elected representatives were doing what was necessary.  

Based on my own interactions with people the message was received loud and clear, people were scared.  The media was a huge help, no longer was it the Novel Coronavirus, now it was the DEADLY Coronavirus.  Journalists and media talking heads piled it on with expressions like Tsunami of Death, Armageddon, The Apocalypse.  No dooms day language was too strong.  

And it worked, it worked so well that people now won't believe newer and more thorough science that contradicts the original messaging.  When mainstream media outlets like NBC started reporting that the overall mortality rate is just 0.4% many refused to believe it.  "Fake news" they scream, clinging to the original projection of between 4 and 5 percent put out by the ICL back in March.  Same with credible reporting coming from John Hopkins saying the same thing, that the "deadly coronavirus" is not nearly as deadly as originally believed, nowhere close.  

Now the same credible sources that were believed when the forecasts were dire are completely ignored.  

The health care system is not being overwhelmed.  Of Ontario's 14.5 million people only 791 are currently being treated in the province's roughly 500 hospitals as I write this.  Even the massive gathering at Toronto's Trinity Bellwood park hasn't caused the numbers to climb as experts predicted.  On the Monday following those estimated 10,000 people gathering without maintaining social distance the OHA website had the number of hospitalized Covid patients at 878.  

So what are governments at the federal and provincial levels to do?  After heaping so much pain and misery on Canadians are they going to put their hands up and say that things aren't that bad?  Millions out of work, children and spouses told to stay home with unemployed alcoholics, people dead and who will die because vital medical procedures were cancelled.  

Are government funded media outlets going to trumpet the findings of infectious disease experts and epidemiologists who are proving that the novel coronavirus is less deadly than driving for the young and otherwise healthy?  

Of course they won't, and they don't have to worry because people are not going to believe it anyway.  The great unwashed already made up their minds when they were terrified of contracting the virus.  Confirmation bias can be a wonderful thing, nobody likes to admit they were wrong and everyone is now convinced they themselves are medical authorities.  The CDC, John Hopkins, USC, Stanford, Oxford and all the other esteemed institutions and experts are now part of some kind of conspiracy for changing their conclusions based on better and more abundant data.

Think of the United States with their disaster of a president.  After spending 3+ years hammering Trump over all his gaffes and horrible leadership, are they going to give him a "gotcha" moment by spreading the news that this virus really is no more deadly than the common flu for those who are younger and healthy?  I'm no fan of Donald Trump, but even a blind, ignorant, racist sociopath squirrel can find a nut.

And one final consideration.  Yes, medical science and government got it wrong, THIS TIME.  But another one is coming, of that there can be little doubt.  And the last thing they want is for everyone to think it's just Chicken Little panicking all over again when a truly deadly virus comes along.  

I'll end this heavy post with some humour.  It seems the Simpsons may have just hit another prediction home run:

John Hopkins epidemiologist: "...best estimates for the infection fatality risk are between 0.5% and 1%..."

Another credible source telling the world that the "deadly" coronavirus is nowhere near as deadly as first thought when a 5% figure was used as justification for locking down large segments of society.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/28/863944333/antibody-tests-point-to-lower-death-rate-for-the-coronavirus-than-first-thought?utm_campaign=storyshare&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR2Mshkd7T65rGP7uh6TpQIvb51QRGUVdz_mg8VC4tzor_Ys3CuzsHBUdJA

To summarize, a large (4,600 people) randomized testing for both the virus as well as antibodies demonstrated that a more apt name would be "the mostly benign" coronavirus.  

And yet, in my home province of Ontario, we continue fumbling along.  People are dying while waiting for delayed surgeries like vital cardiac operations and transplants.  More people will die because cancer screenings were cancelled, taking away the most vital tool in the box for surviving a malignancy, early detection.  And then there's the millions of Canadians out of work with liquor stores deemed essential, there's a great idea.  

"Sorry we closed your school Sally and left you home with an out of work alcoholic, we hope you didn't get hurt too bad, but these other nice people here were too afraid of the virus so.....well, you know".  

In Brampton by-law officers are handing out citations to hardened criminal types who dare have people over for an outdoor backdoor visit.  Meanwhile indoor businesses where almost all outbreaks occur continue merrily along.  "Hey you, get out of your neighbour's backyard and get over to Costco so you can breathe recycled indoor air with hundreds of other people".  

Ontario needs leadership, but our Captain Kirk has abdicated the Captain's chair and has handed it to Bones.  "I'm just a simple country doctor Doug, I don't know anything about spousal and child abuse, I just know how to stop a virus, maybe".  

First a pandemic and now riots - What's next?

It's often said that things happen in threes, I'm afraid to even ponder what the next one might be.

Those who devle into dystopian conspiracy theories of an invisble hand pushing the world into a dark future of one world government subjigating the human population to slavery, they're probably feeling somewhat justified in their beliefs right now.  

First we had the novel coronavirus shutting down large segments of public life including closed schools and churches,.  Many buisnesses are shuttered with millions tossed from gainful employment to the poverty of government welfare.  Despite research showing that the virus spreads almost exclusively indoors  most jurisdictions still allow grocery stores, Wal-Marts, Amazon warehouses and many other businesses to continue operating with little more than guidelines about physical distancing.  

Meanwhile outdoor spaces are heavily regulated.  The city of Coburg just announced that its popular public beach will be closed for the summer.  Everyday activity like shooting hoops alone have led to fines, even sitting down in a park.  Some of these measures are being eased, but there's still lots of things you cannot do outside without risk of a citation.  And don't even think about having kids over for a birthday party for your seven year old, even if its outside in the backyard.

Now we have protests across the United States erupting into violence over the murder of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer as other officers stood and watched.  Civil liberties have been fruther eroded by the imposition of curfew orders in many American cities.  

So what's next?  

Its said a house divided cannot stand, and the United States has not been this divided since their Civil War.  The U.S. is incredibly split right now.  There are those who want lockdown measures eased, if not completely rescinded, and those who want them to contine.  Between those who sympathize with the protests and those who want the heavy hand of the state to come hammering down and restore the peace.  

Are we just one step removed from the creation of an authoritaian regime on Canada's southern border?  What would it take to push our neighbour to impose full martial law, creating a country that would seem more like China and North Korea than the society envisioned by the framers of the U.S. constitution?  

We've had pandemics before, as well as riots fueled by racial tension.  Thinking about what could happen next, the first thing that springs to mind is something that's also happened before, in places like New York City and Boston.  I don't even want to say the word, because I fear it.  And I fear what could happen in the wake of such an event at a time such as this.  

The night mayor John Lindsay walked the streets of Harlem after the murder of MLK

In 1968 my family lived in New York City, Staten Island to be precise.  I don't remember it, I was in diapers back then.  But my late, great amazing Mother often told the story about how, on the night after Martin Luther King had been assassinated, mayor John Lindsay walked the streets of Harlem. 

Our next door neighbor was a NYC cop, and Mom often quoted Mickey as saying:  "That took guts".  The reason Lindsay walked the streets that night, according to Mom, was to make a gesture, and to  simply say: "I'm sorry".

While other cities erupted and burned, NYC in general and Harlem in particular were mostly calm.  With so much rioting and unrest happening now, its sad there isn't a poltiical leader now with the same guts.  

This only came to mind with recent events, so I fact checked Mom's old story, and she nailed it.  For a better recounting of the history here's an article about it:

https://themorningnews.org/article/the-night-new-york-avoided-a-riot