The United States will not default...

There is a lot of nervousness and anxiety out there, particularly in the capital markets over the US government shut down for one, but more so over the prospect that by failing to increase their debt ceiling the United States might default on some of its obligations.

Well, it ain't gonna happen.

For arguments sake, if the US were to default the consequences would be nothing short of disastrous, not just for Americans, but for the entire world.  US government debt instruments are close to the gold standard when it comes to investments sought for safety during times of uncertainty.  If Washington stops paying its bills, the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 will look like a day at Disney Land as capital markets freeze with no hope of help from the government of the world's largest economy.

That is why it won't happen.

Does that mean the fight going on between Tea Party factions and Democrats supported by moderate Republicans is without meaning?  Far from it.  Tea Party types are adamant about derailing health care reform.  In doing so they are providing a big boost to advocates of the status quo.  The fact is the US has the most expensive health care system in the world, and while millions of Americans have no coverage (including children) the health care industry is doing just fine at making profits.  

Why would an industry making billions of dollars want things to change?  They don't.  

But whether a deal is reached or not, there is no way US legislators will tank the world economy, although we may get down to the 11th hour as zealots seek to leverage fear in an effort to gain concessions. 

If Obama and the democrats blink, the big winner will be the U.S. health care industry, at least in terms of their profits.   

Ottawa desperately trying to kill the housing Frankenstein

Remember that literary classic, Frankenstein?  Scientist Victor creates a monster, then realizing the mistake he has made tries desperately to kill the beast.  Seems an apt description for Canada's housing market and Ottawa's so far futile efforts to cool it off.  

This more modern story takes us back to the early days of the great financial crisis, when Canada seemed to be teetering on the brink of the worst economic crisis since the great depression. Back in 2006 and before, the housing market was pretty simple,you saved up some money for a down  payment and then applied for a mortgage with the bank.  Valuations increased in a nice slow and steady fashion, for twenty plus years a house was pretty much a rock solid investment, very maple syrupy, slow and steady.  

But with a minority government in Ottawa faced with the possibility of  being forced to go to the electorate with the country's finances in tatters a solution was needed.  The economy needed some steroids. And so the monster was born, sub-prime lending, Canadian style.

It had worked wonders in the US, inflating real estate values to astronomical values, making Donald Trumps of Joe Sixpacks and Sally Housecoats from coast to coast.  

Haven't saved up a down payment, and family not willing or unable to gift you the money?  No problem, zero down works.  Still can't afford to carry the mortgage, hell we'll stretch the payments out over 40 years, call it renting debt.  Afraid the bank still won't want to take on the risk?  Pfffffffffft, taxpayers have your back with CMHC insurance, we'll build the premiums into your monthly.

And it worked, boy howdy.

How much is that house, $200,000?  Is it worth it?  Who the Flaherty cares?!?!  It ain't our money!!!  Wait, are other people interested in buying it????  To hell with that, we'll outbid them.  We all know what happened, houses the size of bus shelters were seeing bidding wars in places like Toronto.

Which basically brings us to today.  Forty year mortgages have been dialed all the way back to twenty five. Down payments are again needed, with lenders no longer able to "rebate" the required amount.  No more tapping your HELOC for that kitchen reno if it eats away all your equity.

But still the monster won't die, and why would it, monsters don't die easily, ask Victor.  Go to Garth Turner's blog, Greaterfool.ca.  He's been calling the top since 2008.  One day of course, he'll be right.  

An American style crash?  I suspect, for some.  For amateur landlords mortgaged to the hilt I can see it getting ugly.  Likewise for those forced to sell for reasons of relocation or similar situations, if they bought near the top.  

But this isn't the United States, and you can't just drop your keys in the mail and stick the bank with a property that's declined in value.  The banks backside is covered.  If they're forced to sell your home for less than you owed on the mortgage, they'll stick you with the bill.  If that causes bankruptcy, insurance kicks in.

For owners of a single house, who can ride out an increase in mortgage payments and the ensuing buyers market, I think they'll be fine.

For those wanting or needing to sell, I think it could get ugly.  Higher rates brought on by a tightening money supply and tighter qualification standards mean decreased demand and lower prices for a number of years to come.  

Pro-Life or Pro Choice? The abortion debate is back March 28

CBC is reporting that Conservative MP Mark Warawa’s motion, calling on Parliament to condemn the practice of abortion being used to select the sex of a child, is tentatively slated to be debated on March 28th.

Its a thorny issue, and it certainly stretches the definition of Pro-Choice in my opinion. 

Pro-Choice is...pro choice after all, you can't have limits according to some.  In other words if the choice is made to terminate a pregnancy because the fetus is female, that's the choice being made.  Don't like it?  Well, some will tell you that if you're really for choice, then too bad. 

Personally I think the debate would be better served if we got rid of the terms Pro-Life and Pro-Choice, because let's face it, who is going to identify themselves as being anti life or anti choice.  Precious few people. 

Making it a battle between freedom to choose and life blurs the real issue.

And the debate coming up on March 28th (or close depending on how the Parliamentary calender plays out) is about the value Canada places on female children from where I sit.

If our Parliament makes the 'CHOICE' to value a female child the same as a male child, then condemning the use of abortion to terminate female pregnancies is a no brainer. 

As to where public opinion stands, I'm including an info graphic sent to me recently which shows the diversity in American opinion, and how much results can vary depending on the wording of the question. 

Source: What We Think About Abortion

When I am elected Pope‏

With the Cardinals now in Conclave, (I thought St. Louis had their spring training in Florida) I figured it would be a good idea to outline the initiatives I will enact when I become Pope. Yes, I know I'm not Roman Catholic and my election will represent something of a miracle. But then aren't miracles what churches are supposed to be about?

Rome needs someone to lead, well Gordie is the man you need representing God. I will help the Vatican deal with many of the thorny issues it is now confronting.

Sexual abuse
Under my Papacy all those who bring forward allegations of abuse against RC priests will receive financial compensation. In fact I will take whatever amount is asked for and triple it. Some might scoff and claim this initiative will lead to bogus claims of abuse, and it probably will. But there was this guy a few years back who said something about giving to everyone who asks and to walk three miles when asked to go one. I think his name was Jesus. Will this bankrupt the church? Quite likely, and that brings me to the second plank in my Papal platform.

Cleaning up corruption
As everyone knows, money is always at the root of corruption scandals, even in churches. Get rid of the money and there's no incentive to engage in nefarious scheming. Emptying the coffers and selling off buildings, real estate, relics and anything else of value to compensate for priests who sexually abused children will mean there is precious little do ré mi left.

Homosexuality
Back when the Bible was being written a prohibition on homosexuality made sense. God's directive back in ancient times was to be fruitful and multiply, which is hard to do for a species such as ours if those being fruitful are doing it in a, errr...fruity way. Now however there is no such imperative, and let's face it, in the animal kingdom God created, homosexuality is rampant. Even with Pitt Bulls: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/gay-pitbull-saved-death-article-1.1252264.

God is supposed to be forgiving, and all those priests tossed in jail for molesting boys shouldn't have their punishment compounded by having certain leisure time activities behind bars labelled as sinful. And if a prison romance turns serious, shucks, I'll let 'em get married.

Birth Control
As noted previously, the be fruitful and multiply directive came out when the Earth's population numbered just two, Adam and Eve. Under my leadership the Holy See will declare 'Mission Accomplished' on this whole multiplying idea. At seven billion or so I think we've overachieved on God's plan, so condoms and birth control pills for all. Sorry but I don't know how to pilot a fighter jet, so I won't be able to do the GW Bush thing and land on an aircraft carrier to make this announcement. Instead well hang a vertical 'Mission Accomplished' banner from the obelisk in St. Peter's square, a fitting gesture given that its a phallic symbol after all.

So there ya have it boys, the new and improved Roman Catholic Church as led by Pope Gordie. I'll resign once the church is broke, provided you agree to replace me with a woman.

Shouldn't take more than a year or two.