Another Ontario lockdown won't work. Too many people are well informed now.

There is increasing talk of lockdowns in Ontario, if not province wide then in specific hotspot areas like Peel Region.  Well folks time for a reality check, further lockdowns won't work.   I am aware of polling that suggests there is broad based support for a return to more stringent emergency measures, somewhere close to 75% in fact.  The trouble is the 25% who are opposed.

As reflected in the polling, most Ontarians view Covid-19 as a serious problem, so serious that any and all measures need to be taken to at least slow the spread, if not eliminate it entirely.  But about 1 in 4 people don't believe that, and attempts at gaslighting notwithstanding, there is a lot of science and data to back up that view.  

I know lots of people watch CBC or other outlets and they're inundated with the story that cases of Covid are rising significantly, they're told this is a major problem and that's that, they believe they're informed.  

For a lot of more technically adept younger people that isn't enough, they know how to research and dig to get at the facts behind the reporting.  And they're not convinced that Covid-19 is a major health issue for the vast majority of the population.  

Ontario has seen case numbers climbing from below 100 per day toward the end of the summer, to 200 and 300+ per day recently.  About two thirds of these cases are among younger people, the under 40 crowd.  We're told that it isn't bars and restaurants or other public places that are causing the spread, but rather private get togethers and activities of that nature.  

So why aren't a lot of people under 40 taking Covid-19 seriously?  

I would suggest it's because they know their facts, like information put out by Ontario Public Health that pegs the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for those 40 and under at 0.08% or less.  The younger you are the lower it goes, for ages 0-9 it's only 0.002%.  Put another way it means that for those 40 and under there's better than a 99.9% survival rate, Covid  for this demographic is no more deadly than the seasonal flu.  

I know some will read the above paragraph and won't believe it because they haven't seen in reported in the Sun, Star, Post or Globe, and it hasn't been the lead story on CBC, Global or CTV.  The fact that it's from a reputable government source won't matter either.  Some won't believe anything that counters the narrative that Covid is an incredibly lethal pathogen that justifies even draconian measures.  

Many made up their minds back in March when the Imperial College of London was predicting 50+ million Covid deaths worldwide, even with Non Pharmaceutical Interventions or NPIs for short.  Right now the number of Covid deaths stands at less than 1 million worldwide.  That's less death than what is seen globally from traffic accidents.  Incidentally, providing benchmarks and perspective isn't distorting the truth, it is the truth.  

Another simple and verifiable fact is hospitalization numbers.  Ontario is a province of about 14.5 million people, and yet there aren't even 100 Covid patients being treated in our roughly 500 hospitals, only 20 or so of whom are in ICUs.  Again, this information is publicly available on the government's Covid-19 portal and is updated daily at 10:30 am excluding statutory holidays.  

Younger Canadians who are ignoring government mandated advice can say they're following solid medical direction in fact.  Back in early July eighteen of Canada's leading health authorities published an open letter calling on Canadians to be educated about their true level of risk, and to get back to active lives at work, school and socially.  

If you haven't seen the letter here's a snippet, the author's include Canada's first chief medical health officer Dr. David Butler-Jones:  

Canadians have developed a fear of COVID-19.  Going forward, they have to be supported in understanding their true level of risk, and learning how to deal with this disease, while getting on with their lives – back to work, back to school, and back to healthy lives and vibrant, active communities across this country. 

Of course governments can bring in measures, we have measures in place now, but getting people to follow them is another matter, especially those who are younger, healthy and well informed.  Those who aren't scared in other words.  Like political leaders who've been taking trips to their cottages when travel was restricted, or holding public meetings and going to weddings and the hair dresser.  Roughly one in four people are not scared of Covid, and they'll base their behaviour on that lack of fear.

And that is all well and good in my own personal opinion.  There is something that could change my view though, and that is if our hospitals do start to get inundated.  Back in April the province of Ontario expanded ICU space by 900 beds because of forecasts of ~1,300 critical care spaces being needed, that was a the 'best case' scenario if we did really well at keeping distance and all the rest.  Thankfully even though we had huge gatherings and open flaunting of the rules, and no mandatory masks, those dire predictions never came anywhere close to coming true, the science was wrong.  But then computer modeled simulations usually are, and the errors accumulate over time.

Keep well.  I myself won't be out partying with any large groups, those days are in the past.  A back yard get together with a few friends is about the extent of my merry making now.