Classic liberalism, not the weaponzed fascist version being spread nowadays. Pushed right by the lunatics on the extreme left. For advertising or to engage the author directly email me at canadiansoapbox@gmail.com
After months of government, media and health officials trying to present Covid-19 as a disease that is equally serious for all members of society, we're finally getting some clarity. Early on in the pandemic, with news coming out of Italy that Covid-19 was overwhelmingly targetting the old and sick, young and healthy kids went and enjoyed March break and reading weeks the way others have for countless generations.
Nobody wants to see people die, be it an elderly sick LTC resident or a young healthy person committing suicide because their school, sports and support networks were locked down. Sadly both are happening, emergency measures haven't stopped the virus from finding its way into nursing homes, and young people are killing themselves at rates above normal according to CDC director Robert Redfield.
It is time to put and end to these ineffective and counter productive emergency measures now.
If they were effective Canada would not be seeing the virus getting into nursing homes. Even if they were effective that still wouldn't justify throwing the vulnerable and marginalized members of our society under the bus, subjecting people to depression, substance abuse, child and spousal abuse, suicide and all the negative health outcomes that go come from removing vital life saving support networks and systems.
The worst part of a mistake is failing to recognize it, let's not compund our bad judgement.
I prefer imperical fact to speculation, that is just the way I am. Note though that I say "prefer", often times there is an absence of imperical facts, and all one has left is specualtion.
There are some who genuinely believe that the Covid-19 pandemic is a hoax, that is not a belief to which I ascribe. Covid-19 is real, as real as cancer, or influenza, heart disease or countless other diseases and conditions that have the potential to take human life.
How serious and deadly a disease is still up for debate as far as I'm concerned. Based on everything I've seen published in reputable media and the data which is publicly available I do not believe that our response is proportionate to the threat, that is my opinion.
One of the main reasons for my view that Canada's response has been excessive is based on the data that first came out of Italy when that country was front and centre. Overwhelmingly those falling victim to Covid-19 were people who were both elderly in addition to already having serious medical conditions.
Back on March 18th Bloomberg News published a story with data put out by Italy's national health authority. It stated that over 99% of the fatalities in Italy were among people who suffered from previous medical conditions. Only 0.8% were in people who had no other illnesses. In addition the average age of those dying at this juncture was reported to be 79.5 years, close to the 83.2 years Italians live on average. They reported that all the deaths under 40 were among males with serious medical conditions.
Here is the link for those who wish to verify the facts as reported by Bloomberg:
I find it vexing that we're no longer seeing this kind of detailed reporting and analysis. I am firmly of the view that media has jumped the shark in it's reporting on Covid by sensationalizing and feeding into fear and drama. I consider it nothing short of irresponsible and reprehensible.
Ontario is a province of ~14.5 million people, with approximately 500 hospitals. On the government's own Covid-19 portal they give daily updates on the virus, the numbers of: cases, resolved cases, deaths and hospitalizations with the hospitalization numbers broken down further into those in ICU and those on a mechanial ventilator.
The numbers are updated daily at 10:30 AM (excluding public holidays) and for weeks now the total number of people hospitalized has been less than 100. I won't bother quoting the current numbers because they change every 24 hours, if you want to keep track here is the link:
While it is helpful seeing that the number of Ontarians needing hosptial treatment for Covid is so incredibly low, it would be enormously helpful and informative if our media would provide the kind of detail Bloomberg did back when it was Italy under the microscope. What is the average age of those being treated? Are these otherwise healthy people or are they by and large people with serious and at times life threatening illnesses like cancer, heart disease and auto-immune disorders.
Rather than reporting simple facts and data our media is fixating on trying to find younger people who have fallen victim to Covid. I saw a Global story about a 26 year old personal trainer and mixed martial artist who was put onto a ventilator, thankfully he survived. The story presented him as:
The story does mention that this young man suffers from diabetes, but it goes on at length talking about how danderous Covid can be for young people, regardless of their health status. To channel some of my English ancestors I say 'bollocks'. This same Global News did a story back June 1st reporting on how dangerous and potentially lethal Covid are for those who are diabetic:
Diabetes is a serious and insidious disease, one I know a fair bit about as my late father suffered from it. Even those who do an outstanding job of moitoring and controlling their blood sugar levels will often see the disease progress to cardiovascular and kidney diseases. Many don't die directly from diabetes, but rather from the way it progresses to other vital organs like the heart and kidneys. For those sufficiently motivated, or those who simply want to fact check this assertion here's a scholarly article to get you started.
These are some of the facts and data points that have served to form my opinion that our response to Covid has been akin to burning down the house because there's a racoon in the attic. We have a disease that predominantly afflicts those who are old, sick and dying. In Canada it has already been widely reported that around 80% (or more) of this country's deaths have occured in Long Term Care facilities (LTCs). I've shared Ontario's statistics for LTC residents before, and sadly residents are not healthy, you don't go into a nursing home in my province unless every other care option has been exhausted and the level of care needed is extreme.
Here are the numbers again for those who missed my previous post, I'll hyperlink it the source, Ontario's LTC Association:
Bottom line, in the absence of contradictory information I've come to the perfectly reasonable conclusion that overwhelmingly people do not die FROM Covid-19, rather they die WITH Covid-19. Put another way, those who are younger and otherwise healthy, this is not a major health issue.
Why aren't media outlets providing the numbers and the data the way we were seeing at the start out of Italy? That springborads me into the second part of this post, conspiracy theory and conspiracy fact.
Put the label "conspiracy" on anything and immediately people will start sizing your head for a tin-foil hat. And a lot of the time that is fair enough, there are all kinds of crazy theories out there. Reptilian aliens running the government, a hollowed out Earth populated by extra terrestrials, a planet beyond our solar system that will be coming to attack us sometime soon.
But many conspiracies are real and proven. A simple one most people don't know about is the assassination of Abraham Lincoln. Ask most people and they'll tell you that a disgruntled southerner by the name of John Wilkes Booth acted alone. It was actually a co-ordianted criminal conspiracy that aimed to take out Vice President Johnson, Secretary of State Seward and Civil War general Ulysses S. Grant. Grant's assassin chickened out, but Seward was savagely stabbed by one of Booth's co-conspirators, Lewis Powell, miraculousy surviving. https://www.history.com/news/10-things-you-may-not-know-about-the-lincoln-assassination
Conspriacies are real and they do happen, but until they're proven they are simply theories. We know about the Tuskegee Study where black American men were infected with syphilis in order to track the untreated progression of that disease, it's a conspiracy because those conducting the study told the men they were receiving free health care. Conspiracy by definition means two or more people acting in concert in order to deceive. We also know that US president George HW Bush conspired with an ad agency and formulated a story about Iraq's soldiers tossing babies out of incubators in order to garner support for a war to liberate Kuwait.
I could list many more examples of proven conspiracies, but I think my point is made. Governments do conspire and lie, the term disinformation is well known to students of geo-politics.
All of this is preamble to bring up a subject that will likely cause many eyes to roll, hydroxychloroquine which I will henceforth refer to as droxy to save on digital ink. I know some will be sorely tempted to stop reading right now (probasbly 3 out of the 4 people who have made it this far), but I will kindly ask that remain skeptical, but keep an open mind and be willing to fact check.
When it comes to 'droxy', I was as ready as anyone to dismiss it right away as a quack treatment. The fact that US President Trump touted it was enough to get me to disregard it. While it is true that DJT does say a lot of incredibly stupid things (bleach) he also does get things right on occassion. Recall that Trump closed travel between the US and China more than a month before Canada followed suit.
What I didn't know was that droxy has been around for over 50 years, a generic drug used for treatment of malaria and some inflamatory conditions like arthritis. And it was being used to treat Covid, and was being tested for efficacy in clinical trials. That is until a now retracted study was published in the leading medical journal The Lancet.
Why did the Lancet pull the study? I won't bore you with the details, the typically left leaning and very progressive Guardian did an excellent takedown on this study and the company that conducted the research. The apparently Lancet published a study done by a company with just 5 or 6 employees, among them a science fiction writer and an exoctic dancer. You can't make this stuff up, it is crazy.
So how does this happen? Well, now we get into conspiracy theory. It is a widely held belief that Big Pharma is more interested in profits than human health, in fact one executive said selling a drug for the highest possible price was a moral requirement.
Good luck making big money with a drug like droxy though, one that is long past patent protection and is even available over the counter in some jurisidictions. Big Pharma is investing hundreds of millions into developing a vaccine, taking big bucks from governments around the world at the same time. Imagine the cratering of share prices for some companies if all a sudden there was a safe and effective drug that could treat Covid patients at the early onset of symptoms.
I only just came across this thanks to a web/pod cast being done by a California church that is defying a court ordered shut down and is continuing to worship on Sundays. The pastor Rob McKoy does a nightly broadcast with guests, and a recent one included a Columbia Univeristy MD graduate named Dr. James Todaro, someone who apparantly began his undergrad studies at 14 years of age, a latter day Doogie Howser of sorts.
I'll invite you to listen to what the Dr. says, and I encourage you to be skeptical, I was. I listened to his assertions and given his demeanour and simple stated candor I was compelled to fact check the points he made, I have yet to find any errors.
I know he won't cater to some who have a biased viewpoint, and that some may even get angry. That is okay, if you have an issue with something he says I would simply ask that you comment with specific examples of where you think the Doctor is wrong, I don't go in for ad hominem attacks or strawman fallcies.
If you're not a Christian that's okay, but it is something you should look into, watch to the end and you'll receive the benediction:
Bias declared right up front. I have a soon to be 7 year old who will be returning to school soon, a daughter entering grade eleven, and a son going into his fourth year of universtiy. I also have two siblings, one a secondary school teacher the other a high school VP, as well my oldest friend who teaches elementary.
Many (not all) teachers are unhappy with the province's plans for re-opening schools. What a shock, in any given week I imagine news outlets could run with the story: "Teachers Unhappy" about any number of issues. At least when it comes to the way teachers present themselves via media, it seems many, (again not all) are never happy.
This pandemic has turned everyone's life upside down, nobody has been spared. Right from the start of emergency measures, based on what I've read, about one third of Ontario workers either saw their jobs completely disappear or had their hours significantly reduced. Of those who continued working some, like teachers, were able to operate from home. For many though that wasn't an option.
Employees in Long Term Care facilities couldn't phone their jobs in, they were in the thick of it, among them PSWs who often don't earn much above minimum wage. They had to continue working while protocols and safety measures were worked out, and it still isn't perfect, there are still outbreaks happening in nursing homes. Same with police and firefighters, grocery store and warehouse employees, meat processing plants and many more.
Perfect doesn't exist, and adjustments are still being made, that's life.
Well teachers, now it is your turn. After 5+ months away from schools it's time to get back at it. Is it going to be perfect? Nope, no different from all the other workplaces and industries that have been open from the start. Are there going to be outbreaks? Of course, again no different from other industries and jobs.
That is not to say I am completely without empathy for teachers, they're human like everyone else, and like many some are scared. I blame the fear on the irresponsible reporting of traditional media outlets, scouring the hospitals for any younger person either dying or being put on a ventilator, even those with underlying health issues like Diabetes. Recently they presented a 20 something diabetic as "healthy" to drive views and clicks, if it bleeds it leads.
Public Health Ontario recently published research on Covid that included Infection Fatality Rates (IFR) based on age, and I have yet to see any reporting on it whatsover. Broadly speaking those under the age of 60 have better than a 99% chance of surviving Covid. IFR for those aged 0-9 years is reported as being just 0.002% and climbs to 0.6% for those aged 50 to 59. For those who are 80+ the survival rate is still over 90%, and given that Canadian life expectancy is around 82 years that's not surprising, eventually we're all going to die of something.
No teacher, or anyone in any profession, who is at heightened risk due to everything we now know about Covid should be working right now in a diversely peopled environment. But that is not the majority, far from it. Canaidans need to be educated about their true level of risk so that we can get back to vibrant and active lives, at work, school and socially.
Those who follow the data and the science have known since March that Covid-19 is exponentially more serious and potentially lethal for those who are older with comorbities than it is for those who are younger and healthy.
Public Health Ontario published Infection Fatality Rates broken down by age, I blogged on it recently. For those under the age of 60 the IFR is 0.6% or less. It starts at 0.002% for those aged 0-9 and climbs to 0.6% for my age bracket which is 50 to 59.
In a nutshell those who are under the age of 60 have less than a 1% chance of dying from Covid. For those aged 80+ it jumps all the way to 9.3%, which isn't surprising when you consider that life expectancy in Canada is just over 82 years. Nobody lives forever of course.
Here's the info if you wish to verify, the IFR table is on page 9.
What the study conducted by Franklin-Templeton in tandem with Gallup found is that those who identify as Democrat are far more likely to believe that Covid is equally deadly for both younger and older people, here's a snippet.
Those who identify as Democrats tend to mistakenly overstate the risk of death from COVID-19 for younger people much more than Republicans.
A major factor appears to be where people get their news from, those who are ill informed tend to rely simply on social media posts, pictures and memes. I won't bore you further with my commentary, those who wish can learn more from the following linked article and by doing their own research.
I know for a lot of people the debate over masking is over: "Its been proven scientifically that masks help limit viral spread" they'll say. Often it's because they read a headline somewhere that says masks can be an effective tool. Of course science is always evolving, research goes on and on and what was true on Monday can be proven false on Tuesday.
That's certainly been the case with the debate over masks. We've gone from hearing that they offer no real utility, to that they are vital in the battle against viral transmission.
Now Duke University has come along with a new study that basically says that the devil is in the details, or rather in the material of the mask and how it's worn. While N95 masks were judged to be most effective, that is not what the public in Canada is being told to wear, our rules stipulate any type of fabric over the face is all that is needed.
If Duke's research is on the money, then that is wrong.
Their study certainly vindicates my own opinions based on what I see day to day, both before masks were required and after. There are all types of masks out there, the tight fitting N-95s, looser fitting procedural masks with folded material, neck sleeve type gaiters, simple kerchiefs, I've seen people pay for gas simply pulling their shirt up over their mouths.
And of course beyond the types of masks being worn there's the manner in which they're handled. Pulled out of dirty pockets and then returned, constant touching of the outside material, some worn without covering the nose and even half the mouth at times.
Duke's research was aimed at trying to determine which masks work best, and what they found is that some of the masks people wear are actually worse than wearing no mask at all.
I should note that it is not my desire to trigger people, I know many had hoped this issue was settled, but true students of science know that is not the way things work. Science is a process, and that process doesn't stop when it reaches a point with which one agrees. Trump loving mask supporters won't appreciate the fact that I'm going to share the link to CNN's reporting, I can already hear the cries of "FAKE NEWS"!!! But whaddyer gonna do, sadly many people won't believe anything unless it confirms their preconceived bias.
To briefly summarize what is in the article, not surpisingly N95 masks were deemed the most effective, but of course the general public is not being told to wear those, but rather to use some type of cloth material instead.
The article goes on to say that three layer surgical and cotton masks performed "well". The least effective were neck fleeces sometimes called gaiters, like what runners use. In point of fact the researchers found these fleece gaiters increase the number of droplets because the material breaks larger droplets into smaller particles that will hang in the air longer and are more eaisly carried away.
We've gone from being told that masks offered no real benefit, to being told everyone must wear one in indoor public places. Now the science is saying that only certain types of masks should be worn. Are we going to create a mask police to check on material and number of layers now? At this stage nothing would surprise me.
For the moment those with single layer neck fleeces, bandanas and the like, you're all still good and probably risk being attacked by some terrified Karen if you dare go shopping without a mask on, it's already happening.
Emergency measures have impacted just about everyone, people are having to deal with stresses they never before contemplated. With that being said it has certainly been worse for some, far worse than for others.
While everyone has felt the impact of physical distancing, (I now refuse to call it social distancing because there is nothing social about being distant) not everyone has had to deal with the economic impact. Many are still getting their regular pay, and are in fact saving money because there's less things to do now.
That is certainly true for government workers, which of course includes teachers. While millions of taxpayers who fund the educational system have seen businesses shuttered and jobs disappear, teachers and their public sector brothers and sisters haven't had to deal with economic uncertainty.
And of course now teacher unions are clamoring for smaller class sizes if they're going to be required to go back to work. It seems a reasonable request on the surface, but the niggling question of how to pay for it is never even addressed.
Somewhere around 4 million Canadians saw their jobs shut down for months, some never to reappear, or they had their hours severely reduced. To my way of thinking these are the real heros of this pandemic, they're sacrifcing far more than the majority of the population. Dealing with the stress of emergency measures is one thing, having financial insecurity heaped on top of it is more than some have been able to endure sadly.
Now, maybe it's time for teachers to sacrifice in the same manner, consider it yet another modest proposal. Dip into the Teacher's pension fund in order to meet the demands of educational workers for smaller class sizes. I wonder how many teachers, faced with seeing thier pensioable earnings reduced would continue to clamor for smaller class sizes if they were asked to make the kind of sacrifices millions of Canadians already have.
When Sweden opted to avoid stringent emergency measures many were shocked and surprised. The Swede's didn't take a completely laissez faire approach, but compared to countries like Canada it sure seemed that way.
Gatherings of more than 50 people were banned, bars and restaurants remained open but patrons had to be seated. School for younger grades remained open, while students attending high school and up were taught on-line. Businesses were not forced to close down, but working from home was encouraged. Those older and/or vulnerable were encouraged to isolate themselves.
With all of Ontario now in phase 3 and schools slated to be up and running again in another month, it sure looks like a Swedish style response to the writer of this miserable and pathetic little blog. There are some differences, minor ones in my opinion. Basically everywhere in Ontario now requires masks to be worn indoors while in Sweden it is strictly optional. Students in older grades will be required to mask up, with younger students being strongly encouraged but not mandated in my home province. High schools here will be open in some cases, depending on the region.
The stated goal of the Swedish response was that any measures brought in would have to be sustainable over the long term. The reality of SARS-Cov-2 is that it could very well be with us for years, perhaps permanently. While there is encouraging news on a possible vaccine it's still a long way off, and ultimately one may never be developed. Even if there is success a vaccine could end up providing only a limited effectiveness.
A secondary and hoped for benefit of more relaxed measures was the possibility of herd immunity, with some arguing that was Sweden's primary goal all along.
So now that we've moved in this direction what should we expect. I believe it goes without saying that the number of cases is going to climb substantially. By bringing in more stringent lockdown type measures, (closing schools, forcing businesses to shut down, banning gatherings of 5+ people) Ontario has managed to limit the degree of viral spread and has seen a lower death toll than Sweden. Now though, with the clamps coming off so to speak, it only stands to reason that the potential for viral spread is going to increase.
Sweden is a country of about 10.2 million, smaller than Ontario's ~14.5 million. Sweden though is much more densely populated at 25 people per square km compared to Ontario where it's just a little over 14 per sq km. Sweden has seen 568 Covid deaths per million of population, Ontario's death toll is nearing 2,800 putting deaths per million around 193 by comparison.
With all that being said my own thoroughly non expert opinion is that Ontario won't suffer as bad as Sweden did. In Canada we've been living in a state of emergency for 4+ months now, people are very sensitized to the threat of covid. Sweden by contrast, especially at the start, I think it's reasonable to assume that many Swede's likely thought it wasn't a huge deal given the more relaxed response.
Ultimately what matters is the burden placed on the health care system. Ontario has about 500 hospitals province wide, and at the peak in April Covid patients needing hospital treatment only numbered a little over 1,000. Now that's down to less than 100 with just 26 in ICU and 14 of the critical care patients on a ventilator as of the most recent update.
Bottom line is we can't stay locked down forever. Having 1+ million Ontarians out of work and on government welfare has negative health implication as well, health and wealth are not mutually exclusive. Schools are also essential to the well being and health of Ontario's youth, to say nothing of all the other support networks for marginalized and vulnerable people. Covid didn't erase the problems we were already dealing with, and ignoring them has made many bad situations even worse.
Sweden in my view decided to rip the band aid off quickly, while in Canada and Ontario we opted to do it slow, extending the pain over many months. Now we've obviously decided it's time to rip it off finally. In my opinion better late than never.
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