Ontario moves to a Swedish style pandemic response - Shhh don't tell anyone

When Sweden opted to avoid stringent emergency measures many were shocked and surprised.  The Swede's didn't take a completely laissez faire approach, but compared to countries like Canada it sure seemed that way.  

Gatherings of more than 50 people were banned, bars and restaurants remained open but patrons had to be seated.  School for younger grades remained open, while students attending high school and up were taught on-line.  Businesses were not forced to close down, but working from home was encouraged.  Those older and/or vulnerable were encouraged to isolate themselves.  

With all of Ontario now in phase 3 and schools slated to be up and running again in another month, it sure looks like a Swedish style response to the writer of this miserable and pathetic little blog.  There are some differences, minor ones in my opinion.  Basically everywhere in Ontario now requires masks to be worn indoors while in Sweden it is strictly optional.  Students in older grades will be required to mask up, with younger students being strongly encouraged but not mandated in my home province. High schools here will be open in some cases,  depending on the region.  

The stated goal of the Swedish response was that any measures brought in would have to be sustainable over the long term.  The reality of SARS-Cov-2 is that it could very well be with us for years, perhaps permanently.  While there is encouraging news on a possible vaccine it's still a long way off, and ultimately one may never be developed.  Even if there is success a vaccine could end up providing only a limited effectiveness.  

A secondary and hoped for benefit of more relaxed measures was the possibility of herd immunity, with some arguing that was Sweden's primary goal all along.  

So now that we've moved in this direction what should we expect.  I believe it goes without saying that the number of cases is going to climb substantially.   By bringing in more stringent lockdown type measures, (closing schools, forcing businesses to shut down, banning gatherings of 5+ people) Ontario has managed to limit the degree of viral spread and has seen a lower death toll than Sweden.  Now though, with the clamps coming off so to speak, it only stands to reason that the potential for viral spread is going to increase.

Sweden is a country of about 10.2 million, smaller than Ontario's ~14.5 million.  Sweden though is much more densely populated at 25 people per square km compared to Ontario where it's just a little over 14 per sq km.  Sweden has seen 568 Covid deaths per million of population, Ontario's death toll is nearing 2,800 putting deaths per million around 193 by comparison.  

With all that being said my own thoroughly non expert opinion is that Ontario won't suffer as bad as Sweden did.  In Canada we've been living in a state of emergency for 4+ months now, people are very sensitized to the threat of covid.  Sweden by contrast, especially at the start, I think it's reasonable to assume that many Swede's likely thought it wasn't a huge deal given the more relaxed response.  

Ultimately what matters is the burden placed on the health care system.  Ontario has about 500 hospitals province wide, and at the peak in April Covid patients needing hospital treatment only numbered a little over 1,000.  Now that's down to less than 100 with just 26 in ICU and 14 of the critical care patients on a ventilator as of the most recent update.

Bottom line is we can't stay locked down forever.  Having 1+ million Ontarians out of work and on government welfare has negative health implication as well, health and wealth are not mutually exclusive.  Schools are also essential to the well being and health of Ontario's youth, to say nothing of all the other support networks for marginalized and vulnerable people.  Covid didn't erase the problems we were already dealing with, and ignoring them has made many bad situations even worse.  

Sweden in my view decided to rip the band aid off quickly, while in Canada and Ontario we opted to do it slow, extending the pain over many months.  Now we've obviously decided it's time to rip it off finally.  In my opinion better late than never.