Sunday, December 27, 2020
Friday, December 25, 2020
Merry Christmas - Don't expect the lockdown to end in 4 weeks Ontario (Video)
Alright, I'm going to start broadcasting on my newly created youtube channel. We shall see how this goes.
Sunday, November 15, 2020
Don't be fooled - Christmas gathering will be canceled, the decision has already been made...
I said I wasn't going to be pulling punches anymore. Well here goes. Canadians are undergoing what amounts to a Psychological Operation right now, or colloquially a "Psy-Op". The decision that Christmas gathering will be outlawed by unconstitutional decrees has already been made, that is opinion and it is an opinion that I hold with firm conviction.
We are being told that it is "entirely up to us" whether Christmas get togethers will happen or not, and the reason for that is simple. A house divided cannot stand. There are individuals and groups in Canada who want our Charter Rights and Freedoms restored, who are opposed to being ruled by undemocratic dictate.
When the eventual and already determined action of banning Christmas gathering comes down, the government wants Canadians to blame their friends and neighbours. "If those people had just been good I could have seen my family". Every war needs an enemy, someone other than the government for people to vent their anger and frustration on. In Germany it was Trade Unionists, Communists and Jews, now it's those who want the restoration of democratic governance.
Lockdown measures have been proven completely ineffective at controlling viral spread. They've been brought in all over the world, in some cases with draconian measures, and yet the casedemic continues. There are no success stories in controlling the so called pandemic, because if the state of emergency ended then we'd go back to normal and the long planned GREAT RESET would halt in its tracks.
Stay strong, don't be gas lit....this isn't ending any time soon.
Thursday, November 12, 2020
Pandemic??? Really??? All cause mortality in Ontario drops during first 6 months of Covid as per StatsCan -
This mostly benign virus is why people are having their lives destroyed by government overreach, why 10,000 more children are dying every single month due to starvation according to the UN. Why the abused have been forced by unconstitional dictates to shelter in place with their abusers.
Governments lie, we know this. Media lies, we also know this. But data doesn't lie, numbers are just numbers. Here's the link for the data from a recognized and reputable source, Statistics Canada.
I'm not going to pull my punches anymore, Canada is on a very slippery slope toward a facist style of governance not seen since Nazi Germany. Government with big business backing (the same way Hitler was supported) conspiring to destroy the rights, freedoms and liberties that so many Canadians died to protect, something we just commerated on November 11th.
Here are Ontario's monthy death statistics for the period February through to July 2019 inclusive as per StatsCan, this is death from all causes:
Feb - 8,815
Mar - 9,390
Apr - 8,835
May - 8,895
Jun - 8,240
Jul - 8,475
Total = 52,650
Here is the same monthly data for the corresponding months in 2020, the first six months of a suppposed deadly pandemic.
Feb - 8,780
Mar - 9,325
Apr - 10,270
May - 8,935
Jun - 7,350
Jul - 6,800
Total = 51,460
Go to the source at StatsCan and check the numbers, verify my math.
52,650 people died between February and July (inclusive) in 2019, when there wasn't a global pandemic caused by a supposedly deadly virus. In the corresponding period for 2020, when we're told there's a deadly pathogen killing so many people that we have to take any and all measurse possible to try and stop it, the number is 51,460, that's 1,190 less deaths during a supposed pandemic.....
Why aren't more people dying this year? Is it because we're doing a really good job of keeping the infection rate down? Nope...hundreds and thousands of people are being infected every single day, that's been happening since late March of this year in Ontario. And those are only the identified cases, ones confirmed by a very imperfect PCR test. The real infection rate is actually higher.
Government is all in on lockdowns, they'll only listen to medical professionals who advocate strict draconian measures, dissenting voices don't get a seat at the table. Government subsidized media outlets only push the government narrative, to say nothing of the large cororapte and industrial sector.
Sound familiar? Do you think Adolf Hitler robbed Germans of their constitutional rights and freedoms all on his own, with just the power of his charisma and oratory? If you know your history you know the powers that backed Hitler in his rise to power, how wealthy industrialists were key players in elevating a failed street painter to the cusp of bringing the human race under one "all for the common good" governing apparatus.
Don't think it can happen now? Germans didn't believe it could happen back then either. Congratulations for thinking like them, your ignorance is needed for The Great Reset to go forward.
Sunday, October 25, 2020
Large Danish trial could put an end to the masking debate...
A large randomized control trial could finally put an end to the whole masking debate. Three Danish hospitals as well as the Technical University of Denmark have conducted what may very well be the largest ever clinical trial looking into the efficacy of community masking on reducing rates of viral infection. It's certainly the largest such trial in the Covid era.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04337541
6,000 participants were randomized into a masked and a control group, 3,000 participants in each. All were tested and determined to be Covid free at the start of the trial. The study was completed back on June 2nd, now we're simply waiting on the results to be published.
Public health officials have had a dearth of information on which to base policy decisions. Canada's own McMaster University conducted a review of over 100 years of research into masking and the most that they could conclude is that community masking might provide a small benefit, maybe. As published in the Annals of Internal Medicine here is their conclusion.
This Danish study could finally provide a large dose of definitive proof about the value of community masking mandates, after all Randomized Control Trials are considered the gold standard of science. If the results show that the unmasked arm had a statistically significant higher rate of infection, then in my opinion we should be all in on community masking mandates and the anti-masking horde should suck it up and shut up.
If the results show similar rates of infection in both arms, then we're basically status quo with evidence pointing to a possible small benefit. In that case I would expect the anti-masking crowd to continue their complaining and protesting.
There is potential for controversy however if the results show that the masked arm experienced higher rates of SAR-Cov-2 infection than the unmasked arm in a statistically significant way. Not only would this put winds in the sails of the anti-mask protesters, it could also serve further erode public confidence in public health officials.
Science should never be controversial, it is what it is. But sadly, with this pandemic the science has become increasingly political. Educated people know that science is a process, it doesn't stop when a politically desired result is indicated.
I know many people who think they're certified epidemiologists with their internet and youtube degrees. And I don't doubt that if this study does in fact show that masking increases the risk of viral infection, that some dim bulbs will dismiss the results out of hand because it doesn't affirm their predetermined conclusions. Confirmation bias is rampant in today's world and everyone is guilty of it to one degree or another.
My bias leans toward community masking being ineffective and potentially increasing infection rates, but if this study shows a benefit to masking I will keep my ego in check and acknowledge what the highest level of science has to say.
If you liked this post please share, the buttons are below.
Wednesday, October 14, 2020
Leaked government pandemic plan? Terrifying if true...
Regular readers of this pathetic and miserable little blog, (yes all three of you) know that I like to keep it between the lines so to speak. I like to stick with reliable and respected media, academic and government sources. Of course the opinions expressed are my own, but the facts I use to support my views, I like them to be reputable.
What I'm about to share has none of those attributes, it is merely something I have come across on social media, and I know of no way to verify it's authenticity. Ultimately I am a citizen blogger, not a journalsist, I don't have insiders feeding me informtion.
This is a rabbit hole I really don't like going down because it is simply too scary. We've all read novels portraying a dystopian future, be it Orwell's "1984" or Huxley's "Brave New World". In fact I recently read a book by Cory Doctorow called "Radicalized" which is actually four novellas which all paint a dim future ahead.
This is a post off of facebook, the source for which claims to be a committee member with the Liberal Party of Canada. The predictions being made are close, weeks and months away not years. It is my most fervent prayer that this is simply an exercise in creative writing, which is something I myslef engaged in early in the pandemic with my 'A Not So Modest Proposal' I presented that post as strictly fiction, what I'm going to share is not presented in that way at all.
If it's not true (thank God) then I view it as 'no harm no foul'. If it is true, I don't see it being stopped.
It is so Orwellian that I expect that even if it did come to pass, that people would support these supposed measures as being 'for the common good' because to believe otherwise is something a lot of people won't be able to confront. I have no doubt that in Nazi Germany there were people who tried to warn others about what was coming, but the warnings were ignored because it was too diabolical to believe.
It's long been said that people prefer a lie to harsh truth. Hopefully what I'm not going to share is the thing that is not true.
I want to provide you some very important information. I'm a committee member within the Liberal Party of Canada. I sit within several committee groups but the information I am providing is originating from the Strategic Planning committee (which is steered by the PMO).
>
> I need to start off by saying that I'm not happy doing this but I have to. As a Canadian and more importantly as a parent who wants a better future not only for my children but for other children as well. The other reason I am doing this is because roughly 30% of the committee members are not pleased with the direction this will take Canada, but our opinions have been ignored and they plan on moving forward toward their goals. They have also made it very clear that nothing will stop the planned outcomes.
>
> The road map and aim was set out by the PMO and is as follows:
>
> - Phase in secondary lock down restrictions on a rolling basis, starting with major metropolitan areas first and expanding outward. Expected by November 2020.
> - Rush the acquisition of (or construction of) isolation facilities across every province and territory. Expected by December 2020.
> - Daily new cases of COVID-19 will surge beyond capacity of testing, including increases in COVID related deaths following the same growth curves. Expected by end of November 2020.
> - Complete and total secondary lock down (much stricter than the first and second rolling phase restrictions). Expected by end of December 2020 - early January 2021
> - Reform and expansion of the unemployment program to be transitioned into the universal basic income program. Expected by Q1 2021.
> - Projected COVID-19 mutation and/or co-infection with secondary virus (referred to as COVID-21) leading to a third wave with much higher mortality rate and higher rate of infection. Expected by February 2021.
> - Daily new cases of COVID-21 hospitalizations and COVID-19 and COVID-21 related deaths will exceed medical care facilities capacity. Expected Q1 - Q2 2021.
> - Enhanced lock down restrictions (referred to as Third Lock Down) will be implemented. Full travel restrictions will be imposed (including inter-province and inter-city). Expected Q2 2021.
> - Transitioning of individuals into the universal basic income program. Expected mid Q2 2021.
> - Projected supply chain break downs, inventory shortages, large economic instability. Expected late Q2 2021.
> - Deployment of military personnel into major metropolitan areas as well as all major roadways to establish travel checkpoints. Restrict travel and movement. Provide logistical support to the area. Expected by Q3 2021.
>
>
>
> Along with that provided road map the Strategic Planning committee was asked to design an effective way of transitioning Canadians to meet a unprecedented economic endeavor. One that would change the face of Canada and forever alter the lives of Canadians. What we were told was that in order to offset what was essentially an economic collapse on a international scale, that the federal government was going to offer Canadians a total debt relief. This is how it works: the federal government will offer to eliminate all personal debts (mortgages, loans, credit cards, etc) which all funding will be provided
> to Canada by the IMF under what will become known as the World Debt Reset program. In exchange for acceptance of this total debt forgiveness the individual would forfeit ownership of any and all property and assets forever. The individual would also have to agree to partake in the COVID-19 and COVID-21 vaccination schedule, which would provide the individual with unrestricted travel and unrestricted living even under a full lock down (through the use of photo identification referred to as Canada's HealthPass) .
>
> Committee members asked who would become the owner of the forfeited property and assets in that scenario and what would happen to lenders or financial institutions, we were simply told "the World Debt Reset program will handle all of the details". Several committee members also questioned what would happen to individuals if they refused to participate in the World Debt Reset program, or the HealthPass, or the vaccination schedule, and the answer we got was very troubling. Essentially we were told it was our duty to make sure we came up with a plan to ensure that would never happen. We were told it was in the individuals best interest to participate. When several committee members pushed relentlessly to get an answer we were told that those who refused would first live under the lock down restrictions indefinitely. And that over a short period of time as more Canadians transitioned into the debt forgiveness program, the ones who refused to participate would be deemed a public safety risk and would be relocated into isolation facilities. Once in those facilities they would be given two options, participate in the debt forgiveness program and be released, or stay indefinitely in the isolation facility under the classification of a serious public health risk and have all their assets seized.
>
> So as you can imagine after hearing all of this it turned into quite the heated discussion and escalated beyond anything I've ever witnessed before. In the end it was implied by the PMO that the whole agenda will move forward no matter who agrees with it or not. That it wont just be Canada but in fact all nations will have similar roadmaps and agendas. That we need to take advantage of the situations before us to promote change on a grander scale for the betterment of everyone. The members who were opposed and ones who brought up key issues that would arise from such a thing were completely ignored. Our opinions and concerns were ignored. We were simply told to just do it.
>
>
> All I know is that I don't like it and I think its going to place Canadians into a dark future.
Monday, October 12, 2020
If this was a movie a good title would be "WAG THE PANDEMIC"
This is one strange, strange pandemic, if it wasn't for the news media I wouldn't even know it existed.
Many have come to the view that we're living in something of a dystopian nightmare. We're told there's this horrible deadly virus floating around, but people I talk to don't know anyone who's died of it. In point of fact many don't even have direct knowledge of someone who's even gotten sick from Covid. The closest thing I hear is something like: "My sister works with a guy who's wife got it".
I know people from all over Canada, many in the GTA but also quite a few in red zoned Quebec City. The only case I know of is a woman I haven't seen since high school, and if it weren't for Facebook I wouldn't even know about that case. One strange strange pandemic.
It reminds me of the movie Wag The Dog. For younger readers that's an old movie from the 1990s that starred Robert DeNiro, Dustin Hoffman, Woody Harrleson and a number of other notables, Willie Nelson is another name playing a character very much like....well, Willie Nelson.
The basic plot involves a Washington fixer staging a war, a non-existent war between the United States and Albania. And while the war isn't real, in another sense it has to be real because it's on TV. The war has everything, a hero, visuals, themes, even a stirring song.
I think that's what is missing here. The Covid Pandemic needs a song. Something like I LOVE MY MASK might work. Here's the song for the phony Albanian war from the movie.
Saturday, October 10, 2020
Trudeau government drops the Covid-19 ball again, failing to warn of possible airborne transmission
With both the U.S. CDC and World Health Orginization warning that SARS-Cov-2 may be transmitted by airborne aerosols, Canada is once again a day late and a dollar short with our response. Do note that there is no definitive proof that SARS-Cov-2, the virus that causes the Covid-19 disease, is airborne, this is just another transmission vector that many health authorities around the world believe leads to the spread.
The CBC just published a story on it:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-canada-airborne-spread-1.5758114
So, is this important? Well....YEAH!!! At least I think so, as well as numerous other countries that are updating their guidance.
As mentioned in the CBC article linked above, if SARS-Cov-2 is airborne then cloth and simple medical masks aren't going to cut it, especially for front line health care workers in high risk environments.
Do note of course, I'm not an epidemiolgist or an expert in any field of medical science, likely no different from Adam Miller the writer of the CBC article I linked. Like many I'm simply trying to follow the science, not necessarily all the scientists though because experts in medical science often disagree. Which explains why different countries and jurisdictions have different responses.
What I find worriesome is that if SARS-Cov-2 is indeed airborne, as many infectious disease experts now believe, then I fear our response may be doing as much harm as good, perhaps even more harm.
To my non-expert mind, airborne transmission makes perfect sense, it would certainly explain why in Ontario case numbers keep climbing higher and higher despite the fact that masking is basically mandatory now in all indoor places. In point of fact I think mandatory masking could be contributing to the spread because it can give a false sense of security.
And for myself personally, that's fine....I decided a while ago that my best defense against Covid-19 was a healthy immune system. I've been drinking lots more OJ of late, taking Vitamin D supplements, trying to engage in more exercise outside. It is entirely possible that I may have already been infected by the novel coronavirus and not known it. There has been research suggesting a possible genetic marker called HLA that may play a role in why some people get seriously and sometimes fatally ill, while others have either incredibly mild symptoms or none at all.
But I know others who are hyper vigilant and concerned about contracting this virus. Some are wearing masks almost all the time, certainly every time they leave the house, even when outside walking a dog with nobody around. And that may very well be the wisest move, people with diabetes for example would likely be perfectly justified in being hyper vigilant, and that's just one of many underlying health conditions that can make Covid a very serious and potentially lethal disease.
My concern is more for those who are vulnerable who may be engaging in risky behaviour because Canada's federal health experts are slow off the mark yet again. An elderly person with underlying health issues might just go out to a restaraunt, thinking that it's safe because everyone is wearing a mask when moving about, only removing them when sitting at their respective tables. "Those droplets can't reach me because I'm well beyond 2 metres away from everyone".
If the restaraunt is not well ventilated, and really how many are.....then an airborne virus could easily be floating around if there's an asymptomatic diner there at the same time or even possibly several hours earlier. A piece of cloth or a medical mask won't stop an aerosol.
Here's a video of someone vaping with various types of masks. The person in the video claims to be a doctor, but for me that is neither here nor there, what matters is what happens with the aerosols which are visible in this case because of the vape smoke.
That the Trudeau government is slow again is nothing new. Everyone knows that while countries like the United States, Australia and New Zealand started restricting travellers from places like China and Europe in early Februrary, Canada waited another month. And those who did return back then, they were not required to quarantine because "it was believed" that the risk of human to human trasmission was so low that it didn't warrant isolating people.
Even more recently we've had news that Canada is finally ordering about 2 million so called "Rapid Tests" because the PCR tests being used now have such a high failure rate, and the processing time for results can be long. News that Canada is finally ordering some of these Rapid Tests came out Oct. 6th but we're not expected to have any delivered until toward the end of this year. The NY Times reported on August 29th that the Trump administration is ordering 150 million rapid tests. I wonder how Trudeau likes taking longer and ordering far fewer on a per capita basis than the POTUS?
I know media has drilled it into our collective subconcsious that the US response to Covid has been a failure, while our's has been oh so good. Goverment subsidized media in this country loves to tell us how horribly the Americans have done compared with us. But just because the media states an opinion as fact doesn't make it true.
In both the United States and Canada there are jurisdictions that have done poorly, and others that have done well. In Canada Quebec's Covid death toll has been horrendous, even worse than Sweden's, a country that didn't have any harsh lockdown measures. And in the United States the worst performers using fatality as the yardstick are New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts. But in both countries much of the response is handled at either the state or provincial level, with the federal governments simply providing some direction.
In Canada the direction coming from Ottawa has too often been wrong, and probably deadly for some.
Sunday, October 4, 2020
The best science says masks have no benefit in limiting viral infection - Why are they mandated?
I've already shared this infomation in previous blog posts, that Randomized Control Trials are the so called "gold standard" when it comes to science. Science is a process, it's not about right or wrong. Science usually evolves, but with Covid science is going in the other direction, it's devolving.
The CDC did a pooled analysis of 10 RCTs and determined there was no statiscally significant benefit in infection control of a virus by having people in the community wear masks. Since then however they've changed their guidance and are now reccomending masks, saying they might help.
Here's the link again and a cut and paste of the relevant info, all bolding is my own.
In our systematic review, we identified 10 RCTs that reported estimates of the effectiveness of face masks in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the community from literature published during 1946–July 27, 2018. In pooled analysis, we found no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.51–1.20; I2 = 30%, p = 0.25)
Why has the advice changed? Have there been Radmomized Control Trials that have proven a benefit? No, there has not. If I am mistaken then please someone share a publication from a reputable source, please no youtube videos of someone claiming to be a doctor, or memes about people peeing in their jeans. I don't need any more arguments from the scientifically illiterate.
The highest level of science has spoken, but there is evidence that masks "may" provide a benefit from a lower level of science, experiments that measure droplets and how they disperse. The problem is that we're going backwards, if what is observed during experiments is true, then it has to be verified in a clinical trial. That has not happened.
I realize some will not like this. Most people think masks work, so anything that contradicts their pre-conceived notion is fake. But real science isn't a vote, it's about evidence. Thinking a visual experiment is superior to a RCT is akin to someone sitting on a jury and ignoring eye witness testimony from multiple sources because it contradicts the circumstantial evidence.
So why then? Why are governments all over Canada and in other jurisdictions mandating masks now. In my opinion the reason is fear, fear combined with politics. In a democracy politicians poll and respond to people's fears. Lower levels of science suggest masks "might help", so we've gone backwards and are ignoring the highest level of science that says they don't help. We're keeping the Covidiots happy by going with inferior science because make believe epidemiolgists believe masks work.
Look at the evidence. McMaster University in Hamilton, a very respected medical school, they looked at over 100 years worth of research on masking and issued a report. Did they say that masks have a proven benefit in mitigating viral spread? No, this is a cut and paste of their concluding sentence.
Break that down, we're told there is a possible benefit, maybe in other words, and even then it's only a small or modest benefit. Where is the proof of this? Is it from Randomized Control Trials, the gold standard of science? No, it's from lower level science like experiments on droplets. And take note that they mention the possibilty of harm. What harm?
There's only ever been one randomized trial of cloth masks, from 2015 and published in the peer reviewed British Medical Journal. This study of health care workers in Viet Nam by an Australian research team found that health care workers wearing cloth masks had a 13 fold increase in respiratory infections over the four week study period. Their conclusion was that cloth masks should not be worn.
Yet here we are in Canada mandating that children sit in classrooms all day long sucking air through cloth. Cloth is a great breeding ground for bacteria, and once that bacteria gets to a critical level kids are going to be inhaling it. I've already heard of several kids at my son's school falling ill, but it's not on the CBC National news so you can ignore it.....but I can't.
For the boomer types, don't worry. If you're just wearing a cloth masks for short durations, I doubt there's much chance of harm to you. Boomers don't care about kids....they stopped caring about them long ago by and large. Let the snotty nosed brats suck air through cloth for hours on end day after day.
A drowning man will grab an anchor, fear does that. Now we're tossing that anchor to our children for something with zero empiracally proven benefit.
Friday, October 2, 2020
Elderly and Vulnerable to Covid? Think a mask will protect you? Science says it won't....
Please hear me out, it is my most fervent wish and prayer that everyone comes out of this pandemic with as little harm as possible. SARS-Cov-2 can be a deadly virus, but it is not an equal oppotunity killer. Younger and healthy people overwhelmingly recover, google Infection Fatality Rates published by Ontario Public Health and you can see that for yourself. Those under 40 recover at better than a 99.9% rate as per the province's Enhanced Epidemiolgical Summary.
I will save you the trouble, here is the link. This is from June, and with improving treatments the numbers are dropping even more, Covid has become less of a mortal threat as time has gone forward.
I am not an epidemiologist and I don't have a degree in any field of medicine. With that being said I have taken undergrad science courses at the university level, so I am not completely illiterate in matters of science. Sadly, from the conversations I'm having, both on-line and in person, it seems to me most people are. Many seem to view science as a label to be slapped on something, and if it's from a reputable source people believe it is absolutely and emperically true.
Listen please. Science is a process, it is not about right and wrong. Science evolves, something is observed, there might be comparative studies done....but real tangible proof only comes after a Randomized Control Trial or RCT for short. The best science is when multiple RCTs prove the same thing. In science if something is true on Monday, then it has to be true on Tuesday, Wednesday and every other day of the week.
This brings me to masks, and the fact that there is no emprical proof that they have any utility in preventing a virus from spreading and infecting other people. I will say that again, there is no proof masks have any utility in preventing a virus from spreading and infecting other people.
Yes, there has been observational studies done on people breathing through masks, and what has been observed is a significant reduction in the quanity of respiratory droplets expelled. There have also been comparative studies between countries like Canada and Taiwan that show Taiwan (a country where mask wearing is common) showing lower numbers for Covid.
But correlation is not causation, there could be multiple factors beyond masks to explain Taiwan's better numbers, it may be that they hardly do any testing at all. Taiwan has tested less than one single percentage point of their population, while in Canada we've tested close to 20% of our population.
The problem is what has been observed and indicated by comparative studyt has been shown to be false in every Randomized Control Trial ever done. There have been at least 10 RCTs that have tested the ability of masks to reduce viral infection, and they've failed to prove any statiscally significant benefit.
Again, I'm not a medical doctor, I follow the lead of recognized experts. Some conspiracy types might disagree, but I consider the CDC to be a competent authority on matters of human health. Here is what the CDC says about their review of 10 RCTs looking at the utility of masks in preventing the spread of a viral disease. (All bolding is mine)
In our systematic review, we identified 10 RCTs that reported estimates of the effectiveness of face masks in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the community from literature published during 1946–July 27, 2018. In pooled analysis, we found no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.51–1.20; I2 = 30%, p = 0.25) (Figure 2)
And here is the link:
Please take note, I am not comparing Covid with the Flu, these are two different diseases. They do have some things in common, they also have differences. But both are diseases caused by viruses that are believed to be transmitted by the expulsion of respiratory droplets that are emitted when people breathe, talk, cough, sneeze, sing etc.
If a mask works to prevent droplets containing influenza viruses, then it will work to prevent the spread of SAR-Cov-2 infected droplets. Conversely if a mask has no benefit in preventing influenza transmission, then it won't help for SARS-Cov-2 transmission. Put another way if a cup leaks when holding water, it will still leak when holding milk.
We've gone backwards with the science of masking in relation to Covid-19. We have regressed from Radomized Control Trials that have shown they have no utility, to observational studies and comparisons that suggest they might. And because people are desperate for something, they latch onto inferior scientific evidence.
I can share more. The Ontario government tried to mandate that nurses who refused to be vaccinated for influenza in 2018, that they be required to wear masks while in their medical workplaces. The Province lost that fight because the nurses had science on their side and proved to the court that masks provide no benefit in preventing viral spread, not for the person wearing the mask, or for others.
I invite you to please read the news from the Nurse's Association itself.
Thinking that a mask will aid in preventing viral spread is not only irresponsible when the best science says it's not ture, it is also dangerous. Vulnerable individuals might just head into a store thinking that, because everyone is wearing a mask, that "oh good, it's safe". Perhaps this might explain why we're seeing a big jump in cases in Ontario and an increase in the hospitalization numbers as well. Thankfully our hospital numbers are nowhere close to where they were in April/May when we peaked up around 1,000 in hosptial including 200+ in ICUs.
Personally if a younger healthy person gets Covid, I'm not that worried. But I also have an 87 year old aunt that I adore, and I don't want her getting it, or thinking that the mask she is wearing is doing any good other than perhaps psychological.
In point of fact that is one reason I'm not that bent out of shape about wearing one now, I know that people are scared and seeing me without a mask in an indoor space, it could increase fear and anxiety....I don't wish to cause anyone distress, even though their fears have no basis in scienctific fact, the fear is still real.
Peace all and please try and be safe....if you're younger and healthy, enjoy your self....but let's do all we can to keep those for whom Covid-19 can be deadly as safe as humanly possible.
The best defense against Covid-19 is a robust immune system, if you don't have that please don't think masking is a panacea, it's not. And again, I'm not a medical professional so please verify everything I've shared, and if you have info on an RCT that proves masks have any utility in preventing viral infection please share. Just no observational studies or other low end science, we need to prove the gold standard wrong or follow it until something else emerges.
Tuesday, September 29, 2020
With proven dangers to prolonged wearing of cloth masks, what is a parent to do?
I am well aware that for some people the science on masks is over, they've heard what they want to hear, that masks may provide some utility in mitigating viral spread, and that's that.....the book is closed.
True students of science of course know that science is a process, and that things can change as newer and/or better evidence comes out. Changes can be sublte, evolving over time, or they can be dramatic. New studies are done, in science the gold standard is radomized trials, with some utility in observational analysis and compartive studies.
To date there has only ever been one randomized trial done on cloth masks, in 2015 by an Australian research team. Their radomized cluster trial, published in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) showed that wearing cloth masks for long periods day after day increases the risk of respitory infection thirteen times over, paper or so called procedural masks had double the risk, while N95 masks worn strictly when needed (not all day) has basically no risk.
Here's the link to the BMJ published paper:
No other studies have come out to contradict or modify these findings. And for those who find reading a scientific article too labourious there's a CBC news article quoting an infection control epidemiologist and University of Toronto associate professor who breaks it down in much easier to understand language. A link to the article is embedded in the following text for those who wish to fact check.
It's not that masks don't provide some potential utilty in mitigating viral spread, it's just the possible benefit comes with a cost. I strongly suggest reading the full article. Dr. Furness reccomends boiling masks after 2 hours of use because some bacteria is drug resistant.
Personally I've softened my anti mask stance, for me it's not a big deal. I wear a simple neck gaiter for quick in and outs at the gas station or convenience store, when grocery shopping I use a face shield. I'm not having to wear a mask for hours on end, and while I feel genuinely sorry for workers who are required to wear them, that's their battle not mine.
But I also have a son in grade two, and now it's a hill I'm willing to climb. When school started he did wear a mask for the first week, while I read and studied more. By this past weekend I had come to the conclusion that the risk of having a 7 year old wear a cloth mask all day did not justify the possible benefits.
In my district in Ontario kids in grade three and under are not required to wear masks, although it is strongly reccomended. I sent a message to my son's teacher explaining that he would not be wearing a mask going forward and explaining the reasons why.
I'm lucky, in my area and because of my child's age I have the option, many parents do not. In my opinion we should not be forcing kids to wear a mask at school when there is rigorous scientific evidence that says it is dangerous.
One of my son's best friends has already gotten sick and his mother told me that there are 5 other boys ill as well. That however is anecdotal, and even if a large number of kids do get respitory infections from wearing masks I expect it will be ignored by respected media outlets, the only health concern they're reporting on is Covid nowadays.
Wednesday, September 16, 2020
Another Ontario lockdown won't work. Too many people are well informed now.
There is increasing talk of lockdowns in Ontario, if not province wide then in specific hotspot areas like Peel Region. Well folks time for a reality check, further lockdowns won't work. I am aware of polling that suggests there is broad based support for a return to more stringent emergency measures, somewhere close to 75% in fact. The trouble is the 25% who are opposed.
As reflected in the polling, most Ontarians view Covid-19 as a serious problem, so serious that any and all measures need to be taken to at least slow the spread, if not eliminate it entirely. But about 1 in 4 people don't believe that, and attempts at gaslighting notwithstanding, there is a lot of science and data to back up that view.
I know lots of people watch CBC or other outlets and they're inundated with the story that cases of Covid are rising significantly, they're told this is a major problem and that's that, they believe they're informed.
For a lot of more technically adept younger people that isn't enough, they know how to research and dig to get at the facts behind the reporting. And they're not convinced that Covid-19 is a major health issue for the vast majority of the population.
Ontario has seen case numbers climbing from below 100 per day toward the end of the summer, to 200 and 300+ per day recently. About two thirds of these cases are among younger people, the under 40 crowd. We're told that it isn't bars and restaurants or other public places that are causing the spread, but rather private get togethers and activities of that nature.
So why aren't a lot of people under 40 taking Covid-19 seriously?
I would suggest it's because they know their facts, like information put out by Ontario Public Health that pegs the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for those 40 and under at 0.08% or less. The younger you are the lower it goes, for ages 0-9 it's only 0.002%. Put another way it means that for those 40 and under there's better than a 99.9% survival rate, Covid for this demographic is no more deadly than the seasonal flu.
I know some will read the above paragraph and won't believe it because they haven't seen in reported in the Sun, Star, Post or Globe, and it hasn't been the lead story on CBC, Global or CTV. The fact that it's from a reputable government source won't matter either. Some won't believe anything that counters the narrative that Covid is an incredibly lethal pathogen that justifies even draconian measures.
Many made up their minds back in March when the Imperial College of London was predicting 50+ million Covid deaths worldwide, even with Non Pharmaceutical Interventions or NPIs for short. Right now the number of Covid deaths stands at less than 1 million worldwide. That's less death than what is seen globally from traffic accidents. Incidentally, providing benchmarks and perspective isn't distorting the truth, it is the truth.
Another simple and verifiable fact is hospitalization numbers. Ontario is a province of about 14.5 million people, and yet there aren't even 100 Covid patients being treated in our roughly 500 hospitals, only 20 or so of whom are in ICUs. Again, this information is publicly available on the government's Covid-19 portal and is updated daily at 10:30 am excluding statutory holidays.
Younger Canadians who are ignoring government mandated advice can say they're following solid medical direction in fact. Back in early July eighteen of Canada's leading health authorities published an open letter calling on Canadians to be educated about their true level of risk, and to get back to active lives at work, school and socially.
If you haven't seen the letter here's a snippet, the author's include Canada's first chief medical health officer Dr. David Butler-Jones:
Of course governments can bring in measures, we have measures in place now, but getting people to follow them is another matter, especially those who are younger, healthy and well informed. Those who aren't scared in other words. Like political leaders who've been taking trips to their cottages when travel was restricted, or holding public meetings and going to weddings and the hair dresser. Roughly one in four people are not scared of Covid, and they'll base their behaviour on that lack of fear.
And that is all well and good in my own personal opinion. There is something that could change my view though, and that is if our hospitals do start to get inundated. Back in April the province of Ontario expanded ICU space by 900 beds because of forecasts of ~1,300 critical care spaces being needed, that was a the 'best case' scenario if we did really well at keeping distance and all the rest. Thankfully even though we had huge gatherings and open flaunting of the rules, and no mandatory masks, those dire predictions never came anywhere close to coming true, the science was wrong. But then computer modeled simulations usually are, and the errors accumulate over time.
Keep well. I myself won't be out partying with any large groups, those days are in the past. A back yard get together with a few friends is about the extent of my merry making now.
Monday, August 31, 2020
CDC Update - Just 6% of Covid deaths attributed solely to the virus
After months of government, media and health officials trying to present Covid-19 as a disease that is equally serious for all members of society, we're finally getting some clarity. Early on in the pandemic, with news coming out of Italy that Covid-19 was overwhelmingly targetting the old and sick, young and healthy kids went and enjoyed March break and reading weeks the way others have for countless generations.
The novel and mostly benign coronavirus was dubbed by the younger set as"the boomer remover" because of the data presented from places like China and Italy. Now the CDC is confirming it with their recent publication showing just 6% of American fatalities are attributed to Covid-19 alone, the other 94% have comorbidities, an average of 2.6 other diseases and/or conditions.
Nobody wants to see people die, be it an elderly sick LTC resident or a young healthy person committing suicide because their school, sports and support networks were locked down. Sadly both are happening, emergency measures haven't stopped the virus from finding its way into nursing homes, and young people are killing themselves at rates above normal according to CDC director Robert Redfield.
It is time to put and end to these ineffective and counter productive emergency measures now.
If they were effective Canada would not be seeing the virus getting into nursing homes. Even if they were effective that still wouldn't justify throwing the vulnerable and marginalized members of our society under the bus, subjecting people to depression, substance abuse, child and spousal abuse, suicide and all the negative health outcomes that go come from removing vital life saving support networks and systems.
The worst part of a mistake is failing to recognize it, let's not compund our bad judgement.
Sunday, August 30, 2020
Dying from Covid, or with Covid? Conspiracy theory and conspiracy fact
I prefer imperical fact to speculation, that is just the way I am. Note though that I say "prefer", often times there is an absence of imperical facts, and all one has left is specualtion.
There are some who genuinely believe that the Covid-19 pandemic is a hoax, that is not a belief to which I ascribe. Covid-19 is real, as real as cancer, or influenza, heart disease or countless other diseases and conditions that have the potential to take human life.
How serious and deadly a disease is still up for debate as far as I'm concerned. Based on everything I've seen published in reputable media and the data which is publicly available I do not believe that our response is proportionate to the threat, that is my opinion.
One of the main reasons for my view that Canada's response has been excessive is based on the data that first came out of Italy when that country was front and centre. Overwhelmingly those falling victim to Covid-19 were people who were both elderly in addition to already having serious medical conditions.
Back on March 18th Bloomberg News published a story with data put out by Italy's national health authority. It stated that over 99% of the fatalities in Italy were among people who suffered from previous medical conditions. Only 0.8% were in people who had no other illnesses. In addition the average age of those dying at this juncture was reported to be 79.5 years, close to the 83.2 years Italians live on average. They reported that all the deaths under 40 were among males with serious medical conditions.
Here is the link for those who wish to verify the facts as reported by Bloomberg:
I find it vexing that we're no longer seeing this kind of detailed reporting and analysis. I am firmly of the view that media has jumped the shark in it's reporting on Covid by sensationalizing and feeding into fear and drama. I consider it nothing short of irresponsible and reprehensible.
Ontario is a province of ~14.5 million people, with approximately 500 hospitals. On the government's own Covid-19 portal they give daily updates on the virus, the numbers of: cases, resolved cases, deaths and hospitalizations with the hospitalization numbers broken down further into those in ICU and those on a mechanial ventilator.
The numbers are updated daily at 10:30 AM (excluding public holidays) and for weeks now the total number of people hospitalized has been less than 100. I won't bother quoting the current numbers because they change every 24 hours, if you want to keep track here is the link:
While it is helpful seeing that the number of Ontarians needing hosptial treatment for Covid is so incredibly low, it would be enormously helpful and informative if our media would provide the kind of detail Bloomberg did back when it was Italy under the microscope. What is the average age of those being treated? Are these otherwise healthy people or are they by and large people with serious and at times life threatening illnesses like cancer, heart disease and auto-immune disorders.
Rather than reporting simple facts and data our media is fixating on trying to find younger people who have fallen victim to Covid. I saw a Global story about a 26 year old personal trainer and mixed martial artist who was put onto a ventilator, thankfully he survived. The story presented him as:
The story does mention that this young man suffers from diabetes, but it goes on at length talking about how danderous Covid can be for young people, regardless of their health status. To channel some of my English ancestors I say 'bollocks'. This same Global News did a story back June 1st reporting on how dangerous and potentially lethal Covid are for those who are diabetic:
Diabetes is a serious and insidious disease, one I know a fair bit about as my late father suffered from it. Even those who do an outstanding job of moitoring and controlling their blood sugar levels will often see the disease progress to cardiovascular and kidney diseases. Many don't die directly from diabetes, but rather from the way it progresses to other vital organs like the heart and kidneys. For those sufficiently motivated, or those who simply want to fact check this assertion here's a scholarly article to get you started.
These are some of the facts and data points that have served to form my opinion that our response to Covid has been akin to burning down the house because there's a racoon in the attic. We have a disease that predominantly afflicts those who are old, sick and dying. In Canada it has already been widely reported that around 80% (or more) of this country's deaths have occured in Long Term Care facilities (LTCs). I've shared Ontario's statistics for LTC residents before, and sadly residents are not healthy, you don't go into a nursing home in my province unless every other care option has been exhausted and the level of care needed is extreme.
Here are the numbers again for those who missed my previous post, I'll hyperlink it the source, Ontario's LTC Association:
Ontario's long-term care residents (2019)
- 90% have some form of cognitive impairment
- 86% of residents need extensive help with daily activities such as getting out of bed, eating, or toileting
- 80% have neurological diseases
- 76% have heart/circulation diseases
- 64% have a diagnosis of dementia
- 62% have musculoskeletal diseases such as arthritis and osteoporosis
- 61% take 10 or more prescription medications
- 40% need monitoring for an acute medical condition
- 21% have experienced a stroke
Bottom line, in the absence of contradictory information I've come to the perfectly reasonable conclusion that overwhelmingly people do not die FROM Covid-19, rather they die WITH Covid-19. Put another way, those who are younger and otherwise healthy, this is not a major health issue.
Why aren't media outlets providing the numbers and the data the way we were seeing at the start out of Italy? That springborads me into the second part of this post, conspiracy theory and conspiracy fact.
Put the label "conspiracy" on anything and immediately people will start sizing your head for a tin-foil hat. And a lot of the time that is fair enough, there are all kinds of crazy theories out there. Reptilian aliens running the government, a hollowed out Earth populated by extra terrestrials, a planet beyond our solar system that will be coming to attack us sometime soon.
But many conspiracies are real and proven. A simple one most people don't know about is the assassination of Abraham Lincoln. Ask most people and they'll tell you that a disgruntled southerner by the name of John Wilkes Booth acted alone. It was actually a co-ordianted criminal conspiracy that aimed to take out Vice President Johnson, Secretary of State Seward and Civil War general Ulysses S. Grant. Grant's assassin chickened out, but Seward was savagely stabbed by one of Booth's co-conspirators, Lewis Powell, miraculousy surviving. https://www.history.com/news/10-things-you-may-not-know-about-the-lincoln-assassination
Conspriacies are real and they do happen, but until they're proven they are simply theories. We know about the Tuskegee Study where black American men were infected with syphilis in order to track the untreated progression of that disease, it's a conspiracy because those conducting the study told the men they were receiving free health care. Conspiracy by definition means two or more people acting in concert in order to deceive. We also know that US president George HW Bush conspired with an ad agency and formulated a story about Iraq's soldiers tossing babies out of incubators in order to garner support for a war to liberate Kuwait.
I could list many more examples of proven conspiracies, but I think my point is made. Governments do conspire and lie, the term disinformation is well known to students of geo-politics.
All of this is preamble to bring up a subject that will likely cause many eyes to roll, hydroxychloroquine which I will henceforth refer to as droxy to save on digital ink. I know some will be sorely tempted to stop reading right now (probasbly 3 out of the 4 people who have made it this far), but I will kindly ask that remain skeptical, but keep an open mind and be willing to fact check.
When it comes to 'droxy', I was as ready as anyone to dismiss it right away as a quack treatment. The fact that US President Trump touted it was enough to get me to disregard it. While it is true that DJT does say a lot of incredibly stupid things (bleach) he also does get things right on occassion. Recall that Trump closed travel between the US and China more than a month before Canada followed suit.
What I didn't know was that droxy has been around for over 50 years, a generic drug used for treatment of malaria and some inflamatory conditions like arthritis. And it was being used to treat Covid, and was being tested for efficacy in clinical trials. That is until a now retracted study was published in the leading medical journal The Lancet.
Why did the Lancet pull the study? I won't bore you with the details, the typically left leaning and very progressive Guardian did an excellent takedown on this study and the company that conducted the research. The apparently Lancet published a study done by a company with just 5 or 6 employees, among them a science fiction writer and an exoctic dancer. You can't make this stuff up, it is crazy.
So how does this happen? Well, now we get into conspiracy theory. It is a widely held belief that Big Pharma is more interested in profits than human health, in fact one executive said selling a drug for the highest possible price was a moral requirement.
Good luck making big money with a drug like droxy though, one that is long past patent protection and is even available over the counter in some jurisidictions. Big Pharma is investing hundreds of millions into developing a vaccine, taking big bucks from governments around the world at the same time. Imagine the cratering of share prices for some companies if all a sudden there was a safe and effective drug that could treat Covid patients at the early onset of symptoms.
I only just came across this thanks to a web/pod cast being done by a California church that is defying a court ordered shut down and is continuing to worship on Sundays. The pastor Rob McKoy does a nightly broadcast with guests, and a recent one included a Columbia Univeristy MD graduate named Dr. James Todaro, someone who apparantly began his undergrad studies at 14 years of age, a latter day Doogie Howser of sorts.
I'll invite you to listen to what the Dr. says, and I encourage you to be skeptical, I was. I listened to his assertions and given his demeanour and simple stated candor I was compelled to fact check the points he made, I have yet to find any errors.
I know he won't cater to some who have a biased viewpoint, and that some may even get angry. That is okay, if you have an issue with something he says I would simply ask that you comment with specific examples of where you think the Doctor is wrong, I don't go in for ad hominem attacks or strawman fallcies.
If you're not a Christian that's okay, but it is something you should look into, watch to the end and you'll receive the benediction:
Thursday, August 27, 2020
Doug Ford says his patience with teachers is "running low". He's not the only one...
Bias declared right up front. I have a soon to be 7 year old who will be returning to school soon, a daughter entering grade eleven, and a son going into his fourth year of universtiy. I also have two siblings, one a secondary school teacher the other a high school VP, as well my oldest friend who teaches elementary.
Many (not all) teachers are unhappy with the province's plans for re-opening schools. What a shock, in any given week I imagine news outlets could run with the story: "Teachers Unhappy" about any number of issues. At least when it comes to the way teachers present themselves via media, it seems many, (again not all) are never happy.
This pandemic has turned everyone's life upside down, nobody has been spared. Right from the start of emergency measures, based on what I've read, about one third of Ontario workers either saw their jobs completely disappear or had their hours significantly reduced. Of those who continued working some, like teachers, were able to operate from home. For many though that wasn't an option.
Employees in Long Term Care facilities couldn't phone their jobs in, they were in the thick of it, among them PSWs who often don't earn much above minimum wage. They had to continue working while protocols and safety measures were worked out, and it still isn't perfect, there are still outbreaks happening in nursing homes. Same with police and firefighters, grocery store and warehouse employees, meat processing plants and many more.
Perfect doesn't exist, and adjustments are still being made, that's life.
Well teachers, now it is your turn. After 5+ months away from schools it's time to get back at it. Is it going to be perfect? Nope, no different from all the other workplaces and industries that have been open from the start. Are there going to be outbreaks? Of course, again no different from other industries and jobs.
That is not to say I am completely without empathy for teachers, they're human like everyone else, and like many some are scared. I blame the fear on the irresponsible reporting of traditional media outlets, scouring the hospitals for any younger person either dying or being put on a ventilator, even those with underlying health issues like Diabetes. Recently they presented a 20 something diabetic as "healthy" to drive views and clicks, if it bleeds it leads.
Public Health Ontario recently published research on Covid that included Infection Fatality Rates (IFR) based on age, and I have yet to see any reporting on it whatsover. Broadly speaking those under the age of 60 have better than a 99% chance of surviving Covid. IFR for those aged 0-9 years is reported as being just 0.002% and climbs to 0.6% for those aged 50 to 59. For those who are 80+ the survival rate is still over 90%, and given that Canadian life expectancy is around 82 years that's not surprising, eventually we're all going to die of something.
No teacher, or anyone in any profession, who is at heightened risk due to everything we now know about Covid should be working right now in a diversely peopled environment. But that is not the majority, far from it. Canaidans need to be educated about their true level of risk so that we can get back to vibrant and active lives, at work, school and socially.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
Seed Newsvine
