Large Danish trial could put an end to the masking debate...

A large randomized control trial could finally put an end to the whole masking debate.  Three Danish hospitals as well as the Technical University of Denmark have conducted what may very well be the largest ever clinical trial looking into the efficacy of community masking on reducing rates of viral infection.  It's certainly the largest such trial in the Covid era.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04337541

6,000 participants were randomized into a masked and a control group, 3,000 participants in each.  All were tested and determined to be Covid free at the start of the trial.  The study was completed back on June 2nd, now we're simply waiting on the results to be published.  

Public health officials have had a dearth of information on which to base policy decisions.  Canada's own McMaster University conducted a review of over 100 years of research into masking and the most that they could conclude is that community masking might provide a small benefit, maybe.  As published in the Annals of Internal Medicine here is their conclusion.  

No direct evidence indicates that public mask wearing protects either the wearer or others. Given the severity of this pandemic and the difficulty of control, we suggest that the possible benefit of a modest reduction in transmission likely outweighs the possibility of harm

This Danish study could finally provide a large dose of definitive proof about the value of community masking mandates, after all Randomized Control Trials are considered the gold standard of science.  If the results show that the unmasked arm had a statistically significant higher rate of infection, then in my opinion we should be all in on community masking mandates and the anti-masking horde should suck it up and shut up.  

If the results show similar rates of infection in both arms, then we're basically status quo with evidence pointing to a possible small benefit.  In that case I would expect the anti-masking crowd to continue their complaining and protesting.

There is potential for controversy however if the results show that the masked arm experienced higher rates of SAR-Cov-2 infection than the unmasked arm in a statistically significant way.  Not only would this put winds in the sails of the anti-mask protesters, it could also serve further erode public confidence in public health officials.  

Science should never be controversial, it is what it is.  But sadly, with this pandemic the science has become increasingly political.  Educated people know that science is a process, it doesn't stop when a politically desired result is indicated.  

I know many people who think they're certified epidemiologists with their internet and youtube degrees.  And I don't doubt that if this study does in fact show that masking increases the risk of viral infection, that some dim bulbs will dismiss the results out of hand because it doesn't affirm their predetermined conclusions. Confirmation bias is rampant in today's world and everyone is guilty of it to one degree or another.

My bias leans toward community masking being ineffective and potentially increasing infection rates, but if this study shows a benefit to masking I will keep my ego in check and acknowledge what the highest level of science has to say.  

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Leaked government pandemic plan? Terrifying if true...

Regular readers of this pathetic and miserable little blog, (yes all three of you) know that I like to keep it between the lines so to speak.  I like to stick with reliable and respected media, academic and government sources.  Of course the opinions expressed are my own, but the facts I use to support my views, I like them to be reputable.

What I'm about to share has none of those attributes, it is merely something I have come across on social media, and I know of no way to verify it's authenticity.  Ultimately I am a citizen blogger, not a journalsist, I don't have insiders feeding me informtion.  

This is a rabbit hole I really don't like going down because it is simply too scary.  We've all read novels portraying a dystopian future, be it Orwell's "1984" or Huxley's "Brave New World".  In fact I recently read a book by Cory Doctorow called "Radicalized" which is actually four novellas which all paint a dim future ahead.

This is a post off of facebook, the source for which claims to be a committee member with the Liberal Party of Canada.  The predictions being made are close, weeks and months away not years.  It is my most fervent prayer that this is simply an exercise in creative writing, which is something I myslef engaged in early in the pandemic with my 'A Not So Modest Proposal'  I presented that post as strictly fiction, what I'm going to share is not presented in that way at all.

If it's not true (thank God) then I view it as 'no harm no foul'.  If it is true, I don't see it being stopped.  

It is so Orwellian that I expect that even if it did come to pass, that people would support these supposed measures as being 'for the common good' because to believe otherwise is something a lot of people won't be able to confront.  I have no doubt that in Nazi Germany there were people who tried to warn others about what was coming, but the warnings were ignored because it was too diabolical to believe.  

It's long been said that people prefer a lie to harsh truth.  Hopefully what I'm not going to share is the thing that is not true.  

I want to provide you some very important information. I'm a committee member within the Liberal Party of Canada. I sit within several committee groups but the information I am providing is originating from the Strategic Planning committee (which is steered by the PMO).

>

> I need to start off by saying that I'm not happy doing this but I have to. As a Canadian and more importantly as a parent who wants a better future not only for my children but for other children as well. The other reason I am doing this is because roughly 30% of the committee members are not pleased with the direction this will take Canada, but our opinions have been ignored and they plan on moving forward toward their goals. They have also made it very clear that nothing will stop the planned outcomes.

>

> The road map and aim was set out by the PMO and is as follows:

>

> - Phase in secondary lock down restrictions on a rolling basis, starting with major metropolitan areas first and expanding outward. Expected by November 2020.

> - Rush the acquisition of (or construction of) isolation facilities across every province and territory. Expected by December 2020.

> - Daily new cases of COVID-19 will surge beyond capacity of testing, including increases in COVID related deaths following the same growth curves. Expected by end of November 2020.

> - Complete and total secondary lock down (much stricter than the first and second rolling phase restrictions). Expected by end of December 2020 - early January 2021

> - Reform and expansion of the unemployment program to be transitioned into the universal basic income program. Expected by Q1 2021.

> - Projected COVID-19 mutation and/or co-infection with secondary virus (referred to as COVID-21) leading to a third wave with much higher mortality rate and higher rate of infection. Expected by February 2021.

> - Daily new cases of COVID-21 hospitalizations and COVID-19 and COVID-21 related deaths will exceed medical care facilities capacity. Expected Q1 - Q2 2021.

> - Enhanced lock down restrictions (referred to as Third Lock Down) will be implemented. Full travel restrictions will be imposed (including inter-province and inter-city). Expected Q2 2021.

> - Transitioning of individuals into the universal basic income program. Expected mid Q2 2021.

> - Projected supply chain break downs, inventory shortages, large economic instability. Expected late Q2 2021.

> - Deployment of military personnel into major metropolitan areas as well as all major roadways to establish travel checkpoints. Restrict travel and movement. Provide logistical support to the area. Expected by Q3 2021.

>

>

>

> Along with that provided road map the Strategic Planning committee was asked to design an effective way of transitioning Canadians to meet a unprecedented economic endeavor. One that would change the face of Canada and forever alter the lives of Canadians. What we were told was that in order to offset what was essentially an economic collapse on a international scale, that the federal government was going to offer Canadians a total debt relief. This is how it works: the federal government will offer to eliminate all personal debts (mortgages, loans, credit cards, etc) which all funding will be provided

> to Canada by the IMF under what will become known as the World Debt Reset program. In exchange for acceptance of this total debt forgiveness the individual would forfeit ownership of any and all property and assets forever. The individual would also have to agree to partake in the COVID-19 and COVID-21 vaccination schedule, which would provide the individual with unrestricted travel and unrestricted living even under a full lock down (through the use of photo identification referred to as Canada's HealthPass) .

>

> Committee members asked who would become the owner of the forfeited property and assets in that scenario and what would happen to lenders or financial institutions, we were simply told "the World Debt Reset program will handle all of the details". Several committee members also questioned what would happen to individuals if they refused to participate in the World Debt Reset program, or the HealthPass, or the vaccination schedule, and the answer we got was very troubling. Essentially we were told it was our duty to make sure we came up with a plan to ensure that would never happen. We were told it was in the individuals best interest to participate. When several committee members pushed relentlessly to get an answer we were told that those who refused would first live under the lock down restrictions indefinitely. And that over a short period of time as more Canadians transitioned into the debt forgiveness program, the ones who refused to participate would be deemed a public safety risk and would be relocated into isolation facilities. Once in those facilities they would be given two options, participate in the debt forgiveness program and be released, or stay indefinitely in the isolation facility under the classification of a serious public health risk and have all their assets seized.

>

> So as you can imagine after hearing all of this it turned into quite the heated discussion and escalated beyond anything I've ever witnessed before. In the end it was implied by the PMO that the whole agenda will move forward no matter who agrees with it or not. That it wont just be Canada but in fact all nations will have similar roadmaps and agendas. That we need to take advantage of the situations before us to promote change on a grander scale for the betterment of everyone. The members who were opposed and ones who brought up key issues that would arise from such a thing were completely ignored. Our opinions and concerns were ignored. We were simply told to just do it.

>

>

> All I know is that I don't like it and I think its going to place Canadians into a dark future.

If this was a movie a good title would be "WAG THE PANDEMIC"

This is one strange, strange pandemic, if it wasn't for the news media I wouldn't even know it existed.

Many have come to the view that we're living in something of a dystopian nightmare.  We're told there's this horrible deadly virus floating around, but people I talk to don't know anyone who's died of it.  In point of fact many don't even have direct knowledge of someone who's even gotten sick from Covid.  The closest thing I hear is something like: "My sister works with a guy who's wife got it".  

I know people from all over Canada, many in the GTA but also quite a few in red zoned Quebec City.  The only case I know of is a woman I haven't seen since high school, and if it weren't for Facebook I wouldn't even know about that case.  One strange strange pandemic.  

It reminds me of the movie Wag The Dog.  For younger readers that's an old movie from the 1990s that starred Robert DeNiro, Dustin Hoffman, Woody Harrleson and a number of other notables, Willie Nelson is another name playing a character very much like....well, Willie Nelson.

The basic plot involves a Washington fixer staging a war, a non-existent war between the United States and Albania.  And while the war isn't real, in another sense it has to be real because it's on TV.  The war has everything, a hero, visuals, themes, even a stirring song.

I think that's what is missing here.  The Covid Pandemic needs a song.  Something like I LOVE MY MASK might work.  Here's the song for the phony Albanian war from the movie.  

Trudeau government drops the Covid-19 ball again, failing to warn of possible airborne transmission

With both the U.S. CDC and World Health Orginization warning that SARS-Cov-2 may be transmitted by airborne aerosols, Canada is once again a day late and a dollar short with our response.  Do note that there is no definitive proof that SARS-Cov-2, the virus that causes the Covid-19 disease, is airborne, this is just another transmission vector that many health authorities around the world believe leads to the spread.  

The CBC just published a story on it:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-canada-airborne-spread-1.5758114

So, is this important?  Well....YEAH!!!  At least I think so, as well as numerous other countries that are updating their guidance.  

As mentioned in the CBC article linked above, if SARS-Cov-2 is airborne then cloth and simple medical masks aren't going to cut it, especially for front line health care workers in high risk environments.  

Do note of course, I'm not an epidemiolgist or an expert in any field of medical science, likely no different from Adam Miller the writer of the CBC article I linked.  Like many I'm simply trying to follow the science, not necessarily all the scientists  though because experts in medical science often disagree.  Which explains why different countries and jurisdictions have different responses.  

What I find worriesome is that if SARS-Cov-2 is indeed airborne, as many infectious disease experts now believe, then I fear our response may be doing as much harm as good, perhaps even more harm.

To my non-expert mind, airborne transmission makes perfect sense, it would certainly explain why in Ontario case numbers keep climbing higher and higher despite the fact that masking is basically mandatory now in all indoor places.  In point of fact I think mandatory masking could be contributing to the spread because it can give a false sense of security.  

And for myself personally, that's fine....I decided a while ago that my best defense against Covid-19 was a healthy immune system.  I've been drinking lots more OJ of late, taking Vitamin D supplements, trying to engage in more exercise outside.  It is entirely possible that I may have already been infected by the novel coronavirus and not known it.  There has been research suggesting a possible genetic marker called HLA that may play a role in why some people get seriously and sometimes fatally ill, while others have either incredibly mild symptoms or none at all.

But I know others who are hyper vigilant and concerned about contracting this virus.  Some are wearing masks almost all the time, certainly every time they leave the house, even when outside walking a dog with nobody around.  And that may very well be the wisest move, people with diabetes for example would likely be perfectly justified in being hyper vigilant, and that's just one of many underlying health conditions that can make Covid a very serious and potentially lethal disease.

My concern is more for those who are vulnerable who may be engaging in risky behaviour because Canada's federal health experts are slow off the mark yet again.  An elderly person with underlying health issues might just go out to a restaraunt, thinking that it's safe because everyone is wearing a mask when moving about, only removing them when sitting at their respective tables.  "Those droplets can't reach me because I'm well beyond 2 metres away from everyone".  

If the restaraunt is not well ventilated, and really how many are.....then an airborne virus could easily be floating around if there's an asymptomatic diner there at the same time or even possibly several hours earlier.  A piece of cloth or a medical mask won't stop an aerosol.

Here's a video of someone vaping with various types of masks.  The person in the video claims to be a doctor, but for me that is neither here nor there, what matters is what happens with the aerosols which are visible in this case because of the vape smoke.  

That the Trudeau government is slow again is nothing new.  Everyone knows that while countries like the United States, Australia and New Zealand started restricting travellers from places like China and Europe in early Februrary, Canada waited another month.  And those who did return back then, they were not required to quarantine because "it was believed" that the risk of human to human trasmission was so low that it didn't warrant isolating people.  

Even more recently we've had news that Canada is finally ordering about 2 million so called "Rapid Tests" because the PCR tests being used now have such a high failure rate, and the processing time for results can be long.  News that Canada is finally ordering some of these Rapid Tests came out Oct. 6th but we're not expected to have any delivered until toward the end of this year.  The NY Times reported on August 29th that the Trump administration is ordering 150 million rapid tests. I wonder how Trudeau likes taking longer and ordering far fewer on a per capita basis than the POTUS? 

I know media has drilled it into our collective subconcsious that the US response to Covid has been a failure, while our's has been oh so good.  Goverment subsidized media in this country loves to tell us how horribly the Americans have done compared with us.  But just because the media states an opinion as fact doesn't make it true.

In both the United States and Canada there are jurisdictions that have done poorly, and others that have done well.  In Canada Quebec's Covid death toll has been horrendous, even worse than Sweden's, a country that didn't have any harsh lockdown measures.  And in the United States the worst performers using fatality as the yardstick are New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts.  But in both countries much of the response is handled at either the state or provincial level, with the federal governments simply providing some direction.  

In Canada the direction coming from Ottawa has too often been wrong, and probably deadly for some.  

The best science says masks have no benefit in limiting viral infection - Why are they mandated?

I've already shared this infomation in previous blog posts, that Randomized Control Trials are the so called "gold standard" when it comes to science.  Science is a process, it's not about right or wrong.  Science usually evolves, but with Covid science is going in the other direction, it's devolving.  

The CDC did a pooled analysis of 10 RCTs and determined there was no statiscally significant benefit in infection control of a virus by having people in the community wear masks.  Since then however they've changed their guidance and are now reccomending masks, saying they might help.

Here's the link again and a cut and paste of the relevant info, all bolding is my own. 

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

In our systematic review, we identified 10 RCTs that reported estimates of the effectiveness of face masks in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the community from literature published during 1946–July 27, 2018. In pooled analysis, we found no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.51–1.20; I2 = 30%, p = 0.25)

Why has the advice changed?  Have there been Radmomized Control Trials that have proven a benefit?  No, there has not.  If I am mistaken then please someone share a publication from a reputable source, please no youtube videos of someone claiming to be a doctor, or memes about people peeing in their jeans.  I don't need any more arguments from the scientifically illiterate.  

The highest level of science has spoken, but there is evidence that masks "may" provide a benefit from a lower level of science, experiments that measure droplets and how they disperse.  The problem is that we're going backwards, if what is observed during experiments is true, then it has to be verified in a clinical trial.  That has not happened.  

I realize some will not like this.  Most people think masks work, so anything that contradicts their pre-conceived notion is fake.  But real science isn't a vote, it's about evidence.  Thinking a visual experiment is superior to a RCT is akin to someone sitting on a jury and ignoring eye witness testimony from multiple sources because it contradicts the circumstantial evidence.  

So why then?  Why are governments all over Canada and in other jurisdictions mandating masks now.  In my opinion the reason is fear, fear combined with politics.  In a democracy politicians poll and respond to people's fears.  Lower levels of science suggest masks "might help", so we've gone backwards and are ignoring the highest level of science that says they don't help.  We're keeping the Covidiots happy by going with inferior science because make believe epidemiolgists believe masks work.

Look at the evidence.  McMaster University in Hamilton, a very respected medical school, they looked at over 100 years worth of research on masking and issued a report.  Did they say that masks have a proven benefit in mitigating viral spread?  No, this is a cut and paste of their concluding sentence.  

No direct evidence indicates that public mask wearing protects either the wearer or others.Given the severity of this pandemic and the difficulty of control, we suggest that the possible benefit of a modest reduction in transmission likely outweighs the possibility of harm....

Break that down, we're told there is a possible benefit, maybe in other words, and even then it's only a small or modest benefit.  Where is the proof of this?  Is it from Randomized Control Trials, the gold standard of science?  No, it's from lower level science like experiments on droplets.  And take note that they mention the possibilty of harm.  What harm?  

There's only ever been one randomized trial of cloth masks, from 2015 and published in the peer reviewed British Medical Journal.  This study of health care workers in Viet Nam by an Australian research team found that health care workers wearing cloth masks had a 13 fold increase in respiratory infections over the four week study period.  Their conclusion was that cloth masks should not be worn.  

Yet here we are in Canada mandating that children sit in classrooms all day long sucking air through cloth.  Cloth is a great breeding ground for bacteria, and once that bacteria gets to a critical level kids are going to be inhaling it.  I've already heard of several kids at my son's school falling ill, but it's not on the CBC National news so you can ignore it.....but I can't.  

For the boomer types, don't worry.  If you're just wearing a cloth masks for short durations, I doubt there's much chance of harm to you. Boomers don't care about kids....they stopped caring about them long ago by and large.  Let the snotty nosed brats suck air through cloth for hours on end day after day.  

A drowning man will grab an anchor, fear does that.  Now we're tossing that anchor to our children for something with zero empiracally proven benefit. 

Elderly and Vulnerable to Covid? Think a mask will protect you? Science says it won't....

Please hear me out, it is my most fervent wish and prayer that everyone comes out of this pandemic with as little harm as possible.  SARS-Cov-2 can be a deadly virus, but it is not an equal oppotunity killer.  Younger and healthy people overwhelmingly recover, google Infection Fatality Rates published by Ontario Public Health and you can see that for yourself.  Those under 40 recover at better than a 99.9% rate as per the province's Enhanced Epidemiolgical Summary.

I will save you the trouble, here is the link.  This is from June, and with improving treatments the numbers are dropping even more, Covid has become less of a mortal threat as time has gone forward.

https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/2020/06/covid19-epi-case-identification-age-only-template.pdf?la=en

I am not an epidemiologist and I don't have a degree in any field of medicine.  With that being said I have taken undergrad science courses at the university level, so I am not completely illiterate in matters of science.  Sadly, from the conversations I'm having, both on-line and in person, it seems to me most people are.  Many seem to view science as a label to be slapped on something, and if it's from a reputable source people believe it is absolutely and emperically true.  

Listen please.  Science is a process, it is not about right and wrong.  Science evolves, something is observed, there might be comparative studies done....but real tangible proof only comes after a Randomized Control Trial or RCT for short.  The best science is when multiple RCTs prove the same thing.  In science if something is true on Monday, then it has to be true on Tuesday, Wednesday and every other day of the week.

This brings me to masks, and the fact that there is no emprical proof that they have any utility in preventing a virus from spreading and infecting other people.  I will say that again, there is no proof masks have any utility in preventing a virus from spreading and infecting other people.  

Yes, there has been observational studies done on people breathing through masks, and what has been observed is a significant reduction in the quanity of respiratory droplets expelled.  There have also been comparative studies between countries like Canada and Taiwan that show Taiwan (a country where mask wearing is common) showing lower numbers for Covid.  

But correlation is not causation, there could be multiple factors beyond masks to explain Taiwan's better numbers, it may be that they hardly do any testing at all.  Taiwan has tested less than  one single percentage point of their population, while in Canada we've tested close to 20% of our population.  

The problem is what has been observed and indicated by comparative studyt  has been shown to be false in every Randomized Control Trial ever done.  There have been at least 10 RCTs that have tested the ability of masks to reduce viral infection, and they've failed to prove any statiscally significant benefit.  

Again, I'm not a medical doctor, I follow the lead of recognized experts.  Some conspiracy types might disagree, but I consider the CDC to be a competent authority on matters of human health.  Here is what the CDC says about their review of 10 RCTs looking at the utility of masks in preventing the spread of a viral disease.  (All bolding is mine)

In our systematic review, we identified 10 RCTs that reported estimates of the effectiveness of face masks in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the community from literature published during 1946–July 27, 2018. In pooled analysis, we found no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.51–1.20; I2 = 30%, p = 0.25) (Figure 2)

And here is the link:  

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

Please take note, I am not comparing Covid with the Flu, these are two different diseases. They do have some things in common, they also have differences.  But both are diseases caused by viruses that are believed to be transmitted by the expulsion of respiratory droplets that are emitted when people breathe, talk, cough, sneeze, sing etc.  

If a mask works to prevent droplets containing influenza viruses, then it will work to prevent the spread of SAR-Cov-2 infected droplets.  Conversely if a mask has no benefit in preventing influenza transmission, then it won't help for SARS-Cov-2 transmission.  Put another way if a cup leaks when holding water, it will still leak when holding milk.

We've gone backwards with the science of masking in relation to Covid-19.  We have regressed from Radomized Control Trials that have shown they have no utility, to observational studies and comparisons that suggest they might.  And because people are desperate for something, they latch onto inferior scientific evidence.  

I can share more.  The Ontario government tried to mandate that nurses who refused to be vaccinated for influenza in 2018, that they be required to wear masks while in their medical workplaces.  The Province lost that fight because the nurses had science on their side and proved to the court that masks provide no benefit in preventing viral spread, not for the person wearing the mask, or for others.  

I invite you to please read the news from the Nurse's Association itself.  

https://www.ona.org/news-posts/ona-wins-vaccinate-or-mask-flu-policy/

Thinking that a mask will aid in preventing viral spread is not only irresponsible when the best science says it's not ture, it is also dangerous.  Vulnerable individuals might just head into a store thinking that, because everyone is wearing a mask, that "oh good, it's safe".  Perhaps this might explain why we're seeing a big jump in cases in Ontario and an increase in the hospitalization numbers as well.  Thankfully our hospital numbers are nowhere close to where they were in April/May when we peaked up around 1,000 in hosptial including 200+ in ICUs.  

Personally if a younger healthy person gets Covid, I'm not that worried.  But I also have an 87 year old aunt that I adore, and I don't want her getting it, or thinking that the mask she is wearing is doing any good other than perhaps psychological.  

In point of fact that is one reason I'm not that bent out of shape about wearing one now, I know that people are scared and seeing me without a mask in an indoor space, it could increase fear and anxiety....I don't wish to cause anyone distress, even though their fears have no basis in scienctific fact, the fear is still real.

Peace all and please try and be safe....if you're younger and healthy, enjoy your self....but let's do all we can to keep those for whom Covid-19 can be deadly as safe as humanly possible.  

The best defense against Covid-19 is a robust immune system, if you don't have that please don't think masking is a panacea, it's not.  And again, I'm not a medical professional so please verify everything I've shared, and if you have info on an RCT that proves masks have any utility in preventing viral infection please share.  Just no observational studies or other low end science, we need to prove the gold standard wrong or follow it until something else emerges.