Will mandatory masking rules cause outbreaks? We shall see....

A tool is only as good as the person using it, use a tool improperly and you can often make things worse.  

I'm lucky to live in Northumberland County Ontario, where the number of active SARS-Cov-2 cases is zero.  While it would be nice to think that the people here are so much better than other locales at social distancing and all the rest, I think there are other more important factors.  The biggest factor in my opinion is likely population density, or rather the lack of density.  This is a country area by and large with a lot of farms.  We are spread out..  Social distancing is easier here than in the GTA where people live on top of one another.  

And masks are not popular here judging by the number of people actually wearing them.  My own observations put the wearing of face coverings at places like the grocery stores, pharmacies and take out restaraunts at no more than 25%.  I've asked friends and neighbours and some don't even think it's that high, and nobody thinks it's more than a third.

Regardless of the lack of mandatory masking we've done well obviously.  Zero active cases and only 21 identified cases in total since the start of the pandemic, all resolved and zero deaths.  Diligence, geography, luck, or a combination of all three.....whatever.  

Starting this coming Monday mask wearing will be mandatory in indoor public places.  We shall see if the numbers stay at or near zero going forward.  I'm thinking there's a good chance we're going to start to see outbreaks identified within about 10 days of masks being mandatory, and the reason goes back to the opening sentence, about tools only being as good as the people using them.  

Masks are a tool, used properly I do believe they can help, the problem is a lot of the people I see wearing these mask tools, they do not use them properly.  Up til now that hasn't been a big problem because 70% or more of people out in shops and such aren't using them and you can't misuse a tool that's sitting in the box.  

A big reason I believe we're at zero active cases in my area is that we're protecting the vulnerable, the elderly and/or those with compromised health conditions.  Most of the credit goes to the vulnerable people themselves in my view, they're being careful.  Someone who is 70+ years of age who is both diabetic and suffering from cardiovascular disease (sadly a very common combination) likely looks at the grocery stores and Wal-Marts and sees all the people going in and out unmasked and decides to stay home, getting someone else to do the shopping or ordering on-line.

Now though, at least as of this coming Monday, we'll be seeing the vast majority covered up and this vulnerable person may just say:  "Finally, it's safe for me to go shopping"!!!  It's human nature, people don't like being cooped up.  And I know a lot of older people (whether healthy or not) who like to get out and fill the cart, browse the aisles at Wal-Mart or Canadian Tire.  I enjoy it myself at times, finding a T-Bone on sale can be a major event in my day.

But is it really safe?  This is where I see problems on the horizon.  

I see too many people now engaging in masking behaviours that epidemiolgists and infectous disease experts tell us is dangerous and counter productive.  And these are the people wearing masks voluntarily.  Just wait until all those who never wanted to wear a mask are forced to.

What am I seeing?  

People pulling masks out of dirty pockets as they step out of their cars to get in line.  Once in the store I see them tugging on and adjusting their masks, touching the outside material which is not supposed to be done.  If you touch the outside part of the mask we're supposed to engage immediately in proper hand hygeine.  I've never seen anyone pull out some sanitizer after touching their mask.  

I saw a lady pull down her mask to read an expiry tag and then return the product to the shelf.  All this mask touching followed by touching of products, scales, door handles, shelves, payment keypads.  Touch touch touch.  I've even seen someone reach under their mask to lick their fingers when trying to open one of those annoying plastic produce bags.  

It is simply my non-expert opinion that all this mask touching followed by touching of so many common places....that we're looking at huge potential for viral spread.  Add in the possibility that vulnerable people may be more likely to be out and about in shops due to a seeming "mask generated" sense of security and...... breakout city I'm fearing.

I do of course hope and pray that I'm wrong.  I hope the numbers of identified cases stays at or near zero.  If that happens I will happily admit that I was wrong.  On the other hand, if we start seeing outbreaks 10 or so days after Monday when masks become mandatory, then it'll be pretty damned obvious the reason why.  Not that I expect mask promoters to admit it, Karens never admit it when they're wrong.