Lockdown measures are like having a "no peeing" section in a swimming pool.

I have a lot of empathy for those who are upset with current lockdown measures, there is a lot of damage being done.  And I'm not just talking small scale personal pain and discomfort either.  The UN is now warning of a global famine of Biblical proportions due to global lockdown measures. 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-n-warns-hunger-pandemic-amid-threats-coronavirus-economic-downturn-n1189326

Economics and human health are not mutually exclusive constructs, each one impacts the other. 

Harvard's School of Public Health did a study which determined that the financial crisis of 2008-2010 was directly responsible for the deaths of at least 260,000 people worldwide due to cancer.  Ultimately our response to the Coronavirus pandemic could spawn even deadlier pandemics, in starvation, cancer, suicides, domestic violence related homicides and likely many many more.

Further and more importantly:  How effective are the lockdown measures we're taking? 

Given the essential nature of the supply chain, not very in my opinion.  And proof is the continued climb of cases and deaths.  I know people are upset when they hear or read about a protest, or of people not obeying the rules about congregating and distancing.  But thinking cleary its obvious these are small potatoes when we have warehouses and fulfillment centres operating seven days a week, twenty four hours a day.

The supply chain is essential, of that there can be no doubt.  If it were to be shut down one can barely begin to imagine the chaos that would ensue in large cities after grocery shelves had been picked clean. 

The supply chain involves enormous warehouses and fulfillment centres, large scale processing plants with workers standing shoulder to shoulder.  PPE is no panacea, one has to be trained on how to use it properly, with no skin contacting the outer material.  Even with proper training mistakes can and do happen. 

Current measures for warehouse and meat processing type facilities (as well as many others) is to screen workers by checking their temperatures.  Obviously this will catch a lot of the symptomatic cases, but is completely  useless for identifying asymptomatic carriers.  And even when outbreaks occur within a facility there isn't a shut down, with all workers being forced to self-isolate. 

What this means is that, in a city the size of Toronto, thousands and possibly tens of thousands of workers are asymptomatic carriers.  Most readers are likely already aware of the recent study conducted by USC in tandem with LA County's health department.  What they found through randomized testing is that reported case numbers could be off by as much as 55x.  Toronto was recently reported to have ~4,000 active cases, some serious and critical.  What USC's research indicates is the number could be over 200,000 in reality. 

The reason these cases aren't being identified now?  The data is indicating that 99% of people carrying the virus aren't getting sick.

They're going to and from work, taking transit and Uber, shopping at grocery stores and pharmacies, buying gas.  We all know the advice about frequent hand washing and to avoid touching eyes, nose, mouth of course.  But consider smokers, hand to mouth hand to mouth...for a pack a day habit that's 25 times a day of repeated hand to mouth contact. 

Despite the enormous strain smoking puts on the health care system, to say nothing of all the lives lost, no government has ever seriously considered or debated banning smoking the way gatherings of more than 5 people have been outlawed now.  But that's a topic for another blog post. 

Ultimately this is the reason I view our lockdown measures to be little more than a no peeing section in a large swimming pool, and why death and case numbers continue to climb.  Its not that we're doing nothing, Sweden by contrast is allowing peeing in pretty much every part of the pool to extend the admittedly gross metaphor.  Will difusion see Canada catch up with Sweden on a per capita basis?  Only time will tell.

There's good and bad news in all the new data coming out.  The good news is that for younger and otherwise healthy individuals the overall mortality rate for the coronavirus is likely less than 0.5% and possibly as low as 0.1%, or about the same as the common flu. 

The bad news is that for the elderly and/or health compromised, this thing is out there and hyper vigilance is needed.  Even ordering groceries and other products on line does not enusre safety...Amazon's fulfillment centres have had outbreaks, including in Canada, but they're still open.  Authorities are reccomending wiping down all packaging and contents, but even with those measures they only say that it "should" be sufficient. 

Its a scary time, obey the rules and let's pray for a return to normal soon.  In the meantime, if you see someone breaking a rule or not following guidelines to the letter, try to be kind...you never know what people are coping with, and besides, its nothing compared with all the asympotmatic carriers out and about who work in the borader supply chain.

Peace all.

A Not So Modest Proposal - An excercise in creative writing...

Balphus was pleased, things were going well. 

No operation ever goes off without a hitch, there are almost always surprises that weren't anticipated, but so far there hadn't been any unexpected or insurmountable incidents.  The agent was working as designed, the collateral damage minimal at best.  In another twenty four months, give or take, the world's human population was going to be both younger and healthier. 

Balphus couldn't remember the last time he'd heard his first name, he and the three others in his position were on a strict last name basis.  One step from the top, or from what they perceived as the top.   Just one removed from the one they all called The Baron, oldest of the old, the ancient one.  At times Balphus wondered to whom The Baron answered, but he always dismissed those concerns quickly, he knew he was near the apex of an immense pyramid, and if The Baron wasn't the pinnacle, he was close.

Nubahe, an underling, was worried about Sweden, but Balphus was able to allay his concerns.

"They'll blow the whole thing, when people start seeing that the young and healthy aren't affected others will copy their response".  "Anticipated" was Balphus' quick reply.  "I and the others actually thought there would be more, we figured three and maybe four advanced westernized countries wouldn't play along with what we advised, no matter how dire things were made to appear". 

Nubahe looked puzzled, so Balphus explained. 

"You're forgetting the second wave.  Mitigation efforts ensure an abundant supply of unaffected and vulnerable hosts for the inevitable easing of restrictions.  The resulting case loads and deaths will play right into our hands". 

The messaging had already been planned.  For mitigation efforts to be truly effective there had to be damn near one hundred percent compliance among nations, and most certainly among developed nations.  What with interconnecting supply chains, there was never a complete closing of borders.  Any outlying nation or nations that hadn't followed the advice of operatives withjn global, national and regional agencies could be made scape goats for the inevitable and anticpated second wave.  The ensuing global outcry and pressure would ensure that the next lock down would be optimal. 

Yes things were going well, too well, and that caused Balphus to worry.  Expect the unexpected was a mantra for him, but how do you prepare for the unknown.  "The Guidestones" he remembered again, probably for the hundredth or so time over the past four weeks.  That's why the Guidestones were there, he hoped he'd prepared well enough that they would never be needed. 


THANKS FOR READING

This of course is fictional, and simply reflects the meaderings of my imagination.  

Accepting lockdown measures is like First Nations accepting blankets...

If you don't understand the reference, after destroying First Nation People's property, homes and very lives governments gave them blankets to help them through the winter, the blankets were infested with smallpox.

Let's count the casualities.

-The person scheduled for a screening for that lump or growth, told that early detection is the most important tool in the box for surviving cancer.   That vital screening was indefinitely delayed...when the test comes back malignant, oh well....we were afraid of the coronavirus so we had to sacrifice some lives, sorry you're one of them.

-The woman living with an abusive husband.  Maybe he'll kill her, or maybe she'll kill herself.  Oh well, didn't you hear about the pandemic.

-The person suffering from mental illness whose sessions were cancelled.  Tell him or her to watch TV, that's always soothing.  Try the program called death and disease 24/7, otherwise knows as the evening news.

- The woman who poured heart and soul into a small business, mortgaged to the hilt whose dream was close to turing the corner....relax, when things get back to normal you can go work at one of the big box multinationals that was deemed essential.

And for what?  As I write this Canada is reported as currently having 557 cases deemed serious and in need of medical care, some of them critical. That's out of 22,553 active cases.  That's 2.7% of active identified cases being deemed serious or critical.  And note I used the words "identified cases" because we're being told this number is just the tip of the iceberg....that there are likely tons more people walking around who are carrying the coronavirus and don't even know it....they don't know it because its not making them sick.

When this all started, and by "this" I mean the lockdown measures, it was based on a report by the Imperial College of London that predicted between one and two million dead in the United States.  Two million plus if nothing was done to halt the spread, and about 1 million if mitigation measures were put in place, assuming 70% compliance.

The ICL computer modelled simulation wasn't done for Canada, (they only looked at the U.S. and Great Britain) but they said other western nations could expect proportional results with some allowance for variance depending on the strength of the healthcare system and overall population age.  So for Canada with its population of about 38 million versus roughly 330 million for the United States...something a little under 100,000 deaths were anticipated, with lockdown measures.

Close to 100,000 deaths from Coronavirus, that's why these measures were put into place.  To put that into perspective Health Canada puts the annual death toll from the seasonal flu in 2018 at 8,511, the number six leading cause of death for that year.

These number certainly lined up with what the likes of Dr. Fauci were saying at the beginning, that the novel coronavirus and resulting Covid-19 disease was "at least" 10 times as lethal as the seasonal flu.

But the data that the ICL had at its disposal when they ran their simulation was not nearly as robust as what's available now.  Italy is fast approaching 25,000 deaths, which puts that country on course to surpass the 24,980 deaths from the seasonal flu during the 2016/2017 influenza season as per the International Journal of Infectious Diseases.

The  novel coronavirus is worse than the flu, that is obvious....with the flu we have so called "herd immunity" and annual vaccines, in fighting Covid-19 we have neither.  But we can clearly see that the 10x more deadly messaging is looking more than just a little bit alarmist. 

Scientists are now running new computer modelled simulations, with a lot more data and knowledge than the ICL had, and there are now some U.S. states easing off on some lockdown measures based on research which suggests the worst is now over.

Its time Canada started to plan as well....before even more damage is done.  The sick and elderly who were moved out of hospitals into Long Term Care facilities to free up space for the anticipated surge, its too late for many of them.  The people whose malignant tumours weren't screened in time to save their lives will have to be chalked up to collateral damage in the war against the mouse that roared.

One final note....while the novel coronavirus may not be life or even health threatening for better than 99% of the population, there are some for whom it is a deadly risk....like flu is for cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy.  For the elderly and/or health compromised, vigilance is very much needed....we've seen what happens when cases start being reported in nursing homes and hospices.

And I don't think anyone with a condition like Diabetes (or any of the other conditions listed as likely to cause severe health issues) should be working right now, it would be nice if aid was targetted to those who need it most.   When all this is over I hope McDonalds, Burger King, KFC and all the other big chains hold a Coronavirus promotion as a thank you for all the small competitors who were taken out by lockdown measures.