Monday, April 20, 2020

Accepting lockdown measures is like First Nations accepting blankets...

If you don't understand the reference, after destroying First Nation People's property, homes and very lives governments gave them blankets to help them through the winter, the blankets were infested with smallpox.

Let's count the casualities.

-The person scheduled for a screening for that lump or growth, told that early detection is the most important tool in the box for surviving cancer.   That vital screening was indefinitely delayed...when the test comes back malignant, oh well....we were afraid of the coronavirus so we had to sacrifice some lives, sorry you're one of them.

-The woman living with an abusive husband.  Maybe he'll kill her, or maybe she'll kill herself.  Oh well, didn't you hear about the pandemic.

-The person suffering from mental illness whose sessions were cancelled.  Tell him or her to watch TV, that's always soothing.  Try the program called death and disease 24/7, otherwise knows as the evening news.

- The woman who poured heart and soul into a small business, mortgaged to the hilt whose dream was close to turing the corner....relax, when things get back to normal you can go work at one of the big box multinationals that was deemed essential.

And for what?  As I write this Canada is reported as currently having 557 cases deemed serious and in need of medical care, some of them critical. That's out of 22,553 active cases.  That's 2.7% of active identified cases being deemed serious or critical.  And note I used the words "identified cases" because we're being told this number is just the tip of the iceberg....that there are likely tons more people walking around who are carrying the coronavirus and don't even know it....they don't know it because its not making them sick.

When this all started, and by "this" I mean the lockdown measures, it was based on a report by the Imperial College of London that predicted between one and two million dead in the United States.  Two million plus if nothing was done to halt the spread, and about 1 million if mitigation measures were put in place, assuming 70% compliance.

The ICL computer modelled simulation wasn't done for Canada, (they only looked at the U.S. and Great Britain) but they said other western nations could expect proportional results with some allowance for variance depending on the strength of the healthcare system and overall population age.  So for Canada with its population of about 38 million versus roughly 330 million for the United States...something a little under 100,000 deaths were anticipated, with lockdown measures.

Close to 100,000 deaths from Coronavirus, that's why these measures were put into place.  To put that into perspective Health Canada puts the annual death toll from the seasonal flu somewhere between 500 and 1,500 depending on the severity of influenza strains circulating during a given flu season.

These number certainly lined up with what the likes of Dr. Fauci were saying at the beginning, that the novel coronavirus and resulting Covid-19 disease was "at least" 10 times as lethal as the seasonal flu.

But the data that the ICL had at its disposal when they ran their simulation was not nearly as robust as what's available now.  Italy is fast approaching 25,000 deaths, which puts that country on course to surpass the 24,980 deaths from the seasonal flu during the 2016/2017 influenza season as per the International Journal of Infectious Diseases.

The  novel coronavirus is worse than the flu, that is obvious....with the flu we have so called "herd immunity" and annual vaccines, in fighting Covid-19 we have neither.  But we can clearly see that the 10x more deadly messaging is looking more than just a little bit alarmist. 

Scientists are now running new computer modelled simulations, with a lot more data and knowledge than the ICL had, and there are now some U.S. states easing off on some lockdown measures based on research which suggests the worst is now over.

Its time Canada started to plan as well....before even more damage is done.  The sick and elderly who were moved out of hospitals into Long Term Care facilities to free up space for the anticipated surge, its too late for many of them.  The people whose malignant tumours weren't screened in time to save their lives will have to be chalked up to collateral damage in the war against the mouse that roared.

One final note....while the novel coronavirus may not be life or even health threatening for better than 99% of the population, there are some for whom it is a deadly flu is for cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy.  For the elderly and/or health compromised, vigilance is very much needed....we've seen what happens when cases start being reported in nursing homes and hospices.

And I don't think anyone with a condition like Diabetes (or any of the other conditions listed as likely to cause severe health issues) should be working right now, it would be nice if aid was targetted to those who need it most.   When all this is over I hope McDonalds, Burger King, KFC and all the other big chains hold a Coronavirus promotion as a thank you for all the small competitors who were taken out by lockdown measures.

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